Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Thursday, October 7, 2021

BELMONT PARK – 10/7/21

RACE 1: 1-2-4-7

Let’s try the hot hand of Tom Morley with #1 SNOW CANDY in the opener of the week.  This son of Twirling Candy debuted at Saratoga sprinting on the weeds and a slow break dogged him right from the outset.  A cleaner break, and having some experience, should do him some good.

RACE 2: 3-2-5-7

#3 I’M FINE needn’t lost contact with this field early, and that feels like a concern given her running style and her pilot.  She is a deep closer who was compromised by a wide trip last time out on a day when you wanted to save ground.  Her best races make her competitive with any runner in this field.

RACE 3: 7-6-4

#7 LIFE CHANGER was an impressive debut winner roughly 20 months ago and is now still in search of his first win since.  This is his first start for a tag and trainer John Terranova has incredible numbers with dirt starters racing for tags for the first time (41%, $3.87 ROI).  The outside post and slow pace seem like they’ll help.

RACE 4: 3-7-2-1

The most trustworthy runner in a horrible field is #3 OPENTHEGATE, who drops in for a tag after going wide chasing a blistering pace last time out.  She should benefit from the experience and faces a field that largely looks devoid of talent.  The inside post should help Junior Alvarado save ground with her as well.

RACE 5: 10-3-11-2

#10 BACK UP THE BRINKS had an inside post in her debut and wound up getting steadied out of the race shortly after the start.  She continued to chase the pace on the rail before weakening in the stretch and likely benefited from the effort.  She should improve at second asking for an underrated barn and looms a threat in an impossible race.

RACE 6: 8-5-3-9

#8 TIZZARUNNER looks like a reliable favorite on a tricky card.  He comes in off a narrow miss in a race dominated on the front end by Soulmate and should get another forwardly placed trip here.  The increased speed he showed last time out off the claim is encouraging and this class level suits him well.

RACE 7: 7-6-4-2

#7 AWESOME INDRA goes first off a claim by Tom Morley, whose barn has had all the answers at this stand.  She stays at the claiming level at which she was taken, and this is the right spot given her recent form.  Her running style also makes her a fit given the lack of confirmed speed here, and Javier Castellano has also enjoyed a resurgence at this stand.

RACE 8: 2-1-3-10

Yet another super competitive affair and #2 HONEY MONEY looks solid for Bonnie Lucas.  She is deputizing for the suspended Wayne Potts and this daughter of Central Banker enters off a solid effort on closing day up north.  She has the tactical speed to stay within range early, and an aggressive ride would do her some good.

RACE 9: 13-3-10-5-7

Should #13 HIT THE NAIL draw into this field, she will be a prohibitive favorite.  Between the drop back in for a tag and the quality of her most recent outing, she will be a tough customer.  If she doesn’t, then #3 FROSTED BOURBONis interesting given the trouble she ran into in her debut here 13 months ago.  Following a slow break, she unleashed a wide middle move to reach contention before flattening out late.  In terms of speed figures, it wasn’t much slower than what her rivals here have been running as straight 3YOs.

BELMONT FALL STATS: 115-31-16-15   $263.40 ($2.29)














































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