Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Thursday, September 16, 2021

BELMONT PARK – 9/17/21

RACE 1: 1-3-6

#1 BOOBY TRAP is a winner of two straight for Leslie Young and appears to be ready for the jump in class.

RACE 2: 6-2-4

Until dethroned, #6 SNAP DECISION is the de facto king of this division. He enters on a 9 race winning streak and figures to be very tough to beat.

RACE 3: 5-3-2-1

#5 BREAKING STONES lost all chance at the start last time out facing much tougher.  He now looms a logical pace player with blinkers being added in a race with precious little pace.  A return to his maiden win would make him a definite win candidate.

RACE 4: 8-2-1-4

Even though she’s collecting far more excuses than victories, #8 SPLIT THEN DOUBLE is a major player here.  She cuts back in distance for Chad Brown off a solid effort when 3rd behind subsequent stakes winner Rastafara.  Brown is 23% with Belmont turfers cutting back over the last five years, good for a $2.33 ROI.

RACE 5: 7-4-3-6

Not sure what to make of #7 AFILADA being entered in a MSW event on August 29 and now being in for a 50k tag.  Nonetheless, she is training forwardly and is by 10% debut sire Keen Ice.  This barn excels with firsters, so expect her to be ready for the unveiling.

RACE 6: 3-7-2-6

#3 MESSIDOR made her North American debut in the Saratoga Oaks and wound up tiring late after chasing a modest pace.  The cutback in distance should do her some good, and high percentage trainer Christophe Clement has been training this Irish bred with some above average company (stakes contender Soldier Rising).

RACE 7: 5-1/1A-3

#5 FLAT OUT BEAUTIFUL goes 2nd off a claim by Rob Atras, who hits at a 38% clip with dirt claimers going 2nd off of claims ($2.65 ROI).  This gelding ran a winning race last time out when 2nd beaten a head and should be in an ideal spot just off the pace today.

RACE 8: 6-1/1A-2

The effort that #6 KINENOS put forth three starts back when victorious rallying into a modest pace was eye-opening.  After two failures going longer, he is back at the right trip and will get treated with Lasix again.

RACE 9: 8-11-2-12

#8 EXFILTRATION ran a better race in her turf debut than it looks on paper.  She was steadied early and wound up running in spots before settling for sixth.  This is a far weaker field than the one she faced that afternoon and the price should be fair as well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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