Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Thursday, September 30, 2021

BELMONT PARK – 9/30/21

RACE 1: 9-2-1-7

#9 BASTET returns downstate for Jeff Englehart as she has proven to be a productive claim since being taken for 20k in January.  She has the most speed and an ideal outside post, so look for her to be involved right from the word ‘go.’  It will take an improved effort from any rival in here to best this filly.

RACE 2: 5-2-8-9

The speed that #5 NEW YORK SUPREME possesses makes her the one to beat here as she gets a rider switch to Joel Rosario.  The filly who ran this gal down last time out came right back to win a N2L on Sunday and this gal has improved in recent outings.  Look for her to get control here at once.

RACE 3: 4-5-6-2

#4 HAPPY MEDIUM ran a bang-up race on debut for trainer Michelle Nevin and now returns off a layoff.  He showed big speed on debut when dismissed at 22-1 against a strong MSW field and tired late.  The lead appears to be his for the taking this time around and that only adds to the appeal.

RACE 4: 8-7-5-3

As much as you might want to take on the favorite here, #8 CANDY FLOWER looks like a little too much for her competition.  She has a great amount of versatility in terms of running style and can be positioned forwardly by Manny Franco.  Given the way she handled a tougher 40k field last time out, she looms a heavy favorite today.

RACE 5: 6-9-5-7

After being done no favors by his rider last time out, #6 KLICKITAT is clearly the one to beat in here.  He was wide the entire way that afternoon against considerably tougher competition and fits nicely here from a race flow perspective.  If he can relax a bit more early, it will help his chances.

RACE 6: 2-3-4

The pedigree and worktab for #2 GREEN JACKET make him awfully interesting on debut.  He is by 11% debut sire Curlin, among the hottest stallions in the market right now, and is out of a dam who’s a half to 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner.  He appears to be training forwardly and will offer value in comparison to #3 TRIPLE ELVIS.

RACE 7: 7-2-1

There’s no reason to shy away from seeking an alternative to #2 STARFRONT, and the most appealing is #7 MORE MOONSHINE.  She was very impressive in a blowout debut score and subsequently faltered going 9 panels.  The cutback in distance will help today and her last was simply too bad to be believed.  If the top pick gets into a battle with #6 BEFORE YOU, this gal will be in line to benefit.

RACE 8: 5-4-6-2

It is an interesting case in point in terms of trips as #4 COLTON’S COMMAND will likely be a shorter price than #5 CHRISTOPHER.  There is no doubt who ran better on August 28 at the Spa, as the latter was in close attendance of a pace that collapsed late.  He should be in a good spot early again today and is obviously in top form at the moment.

RACE 9: 12-2-7-10

#12 PRINCESS PINKY has endured two brutal trips in a row and has actually finished strongly in both of those outings.  She goes 2nd off a short layoff today and is in dire need of a cleaner opening quarter-mile.  If that happens she is a major win candidate at an attractive price.

BELMONT FALL STATS: 76-20-12-10   $202.30 ($2.66)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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