BELMONT AT THE BIG A – 9/17/2023
RACE 1: 4-6-1-2
#4 SHAKY PANTS is a third time starter in a race where the main players are first timers and that is an advantage. This Joe Sharp trainee was on the inside last time out and that was not the place to be on August 20. He can improve with a bi more speed out of the gate and is the right alternative to #6 NEW YORK STRONG.
RACE 2: 5-2-4-6
The ride on #5 MASTEROF THE TUNES last time out was less than ideal, as she was wedged behind horses until late in the game. Once extricated from that spot she finished with interest and should be a major threat here if able to race more forwardly in the opening stages. She has enough speed to do so and will be a square price in this competitive affair.
RACE 3: 1-2-5-4
#1 FAITH IN HUMANITY towers over these rivals on paper, but there has to be some concern over the tactics employed in here. There’s other speed to push the issue early, which will keep her from enjoying the frontrunning trip that led to a Honey Fox score earlier this year. Nonetheless, the lack of a proven closer with good form makes her a very likely winner.
RACE 4: 1/1A-2-6-8
The Chad Brown-trained entry of #1 MARTINGALE and #1A CATHERINE WHEEL will be very tough to down. The former is a first timer out of a 2YO winner who appears to be training well and the latter ran a winning race on debut. She should improve with experience and was hurt by a bold move up a dead rail last time out.
RACE 5: 5-6-10-9-3
#5 CHARGING FAST has oodles of turf pedigree and should be ready on debut for Chad Brown. He appears to be training strongly and is out of a dam who was a 3x grass winner. She has dropped 4 turf winners so far and this guy meets a field where he’ll be somewhat overlooked in the wagering.
RACE 6: 4-1-6-7
#4 KINGFISH STEVENS is now in the care of Mertkan Kantarmaci, who has a 13% strike rate over the last five years in turf routes, good for a $2.32 ROI. This gelding ran a bang-up race two back against a much tougher field than this and should be in stalk and pounce range from the start. His price will be right in this affair as well.
RACE 7: 8-1-4-5
#8 HATCH is much better than these rivals and is supposed to take care of business on the class drop. He was a competitive 5th in a tough 25k N2L last time out at Saratoga and now adds blinkers. There’s an abundance of speed in here and that should prompt hot-riding Manny Franco to take him in hand early.
RACE 8: 5-3-2-4
Of the Linda Rice trianees, #5 COSTA TERRA has more appeal given that he’ll come from a bit off the pace and is in razor sharp form. It’ll be tough to down #3 FILM STAR given that one’s pace advantage here but this son of Gun Runner is the right alternative. Look for him to come calling in the stretch drive.
RACE 9: 1-7-11-6
#1 TIMBUKTU was a non-factor last time out against similar but didn’t get much pace to run at this afternoon. He should be able to save ground from the outset and has improved by leaps and bounds since arriving into the barn of Rick Dutrow. If he runs back to the effort two back at Belmont then he’ll be tough to handle.
BELMONT AT THE BIG A STATS: 29-11-3-3 $103.20
