Nick Tammaro’s Belmont at the Big A Selections & Analysis – Thursday, September 14, 2023

BELMONT AT THE BIG A – 9/14/2023

RACE 1: 1-5-3-8

#1 SNAP DECISION is clearly the one to beat off a runner-up finish in the Iroquois back in May. He was beaten in this race last year in an upset but is back for revenge.

RACE 2: 5-1-4-3

#5 BLACK RAIN is a second time starter who debuted in late August with a solid run for Todd Pletcher.  This barn is 34% with 2nd time starters in MSW races on dirt, good for a $1.91 ROI and he showed some ability in the unveiling.  This amounts to a far softer field top to bottom.

RACE 3: 4-5-3

The workout reports indicate that #4 SLAMMIN GOLD is training forwardly for his unveiling.  He lands in an interesting spot here where 3 runners on the outside will all take money given their solid performances on debut. None jump off the page and that makes this son of Tapit out of Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner Bar of Gold interesting.

RACE 4: 4-5-6-2

If pace makes the race then #4 COLLABORATION is going to be awfully tough to catch.  She is loose as can be on paper in this race as she drops in class out of a failed try in the Suzie O’Cain. Perhaps this filly is an example of a horse who just didn’t take to Saratoga as she ended what had quickly become a good run of performances with two duds.

the_ad_group id=”684827932″]

RACE 5: 5-7-1-8

#5 PLAYINGWITHMATCHES is making his second start for Linda Rice after being claimed for 25k at Belmont in July.  He was a non-factor last time out chasing the pace early and tiring in the late stages.  This is a far softer field than the one he faced in early August and that adds to the appeal, as does the fact that he’ll be no better than 2nd choice here.

RACE 6: 8-6-5-2/2B

#8 ALEAH ALEAH is a firster by Mastery, whose progeny hit at just a 4% clip on debut, but the worktab is strong and this colt drilled :10 and 3/5 around the bullring at the Fasig-Tipton May Sale at Timonium.  He has reportedly been training well for Jimmy Ryerson, a competent and underrated trainer who can have a firster ready to roll.  The price here should be appealing.

RACE 7: 8-1/1A-3-6

The pace that #8 PLAY THE MUSIC got involved in last time out at Colonial Downs was robust and she understandably tired late.  This is now her second start off a layoff and the rival she sparred with early that afternoon has since come back and run the same Beyer speed figure.  This gal is quick enough to get loose or she can track #6 FLEETFOOTED.

RACE 8: 1-6-8-9

Trainer Mike Maker has bizarrely good numbers with horses off of maiden wins on dirt in claimng races and that’s the move with #1 ROMAN GODDESS.  She hasn’t been seen since an early July maiden win where she set the pace and stayed on gamely.  Maker is 6 for his last 8 in the aforementioned category and this daughter of Twirling Candy appears to be the lone speed on paper this afternoon.

RACE 9: 6-1A-8-10

It will be a pretty massive upset if #6 SPACE LAUNCH is defeated in this race.  He towers over his competition on paper in a race where he is a heavy favorite to win and a heavier favorite to get claimed.  Trainer Christophe Clement has modest numbers with turf routers in for tags for the first time, but this is the right spot for him from a class perspective.

RACE 10: 5-8-2-3

After multiple viewings, its unclear what the plan was on #5 SHAMAN PRINCESS.  She was close to the pace, dropped out for no reason down the backstretch then made a brief move in the lane.  This should be simpler today given the apparent lack of speed in this bulky field.  Look for Jose Lezcano to get her loose early and that would make her a tough customer.

FINAL SARATOGA 2023 STATS: 411-103-70-62   $633.70






































































































Share this

Leave a Reply

Further reading