Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis – Monday, September 6, 2021

SARATOGA – 9/6/21

RACE 1: 1-7-6-3

#1 EQUAL PAY failed as the favorite last time out on a sloppy strip, but it was a brutally fast pace that did her in that afternoon.  She is now the controlling speed from the inside in a field that was considerably stronger top to bottom than this bunch.  Look for her to get control early.

RACE 2: 6-4-1/1A-2

The experience that #6 CARAGATE possesses is noteworthy, as she put together a nice late bid at 30-1 to check in third behind a runaway winner.  This beautifully bred daughter of Arrogate figures to take a step forward today and looks to have returned to train well since the unveiling.

RACE 3: 6-7-4-1

#2 EN WYE CEE endured a brutal trip last time out when 3rd as the 2-1 favorite against allowance foes.  He should be more involved early with a more aggressive ride and now goes 2nd off a layoff for a barn that has finished this meet very strongly.  A cleaner trip is almost a certainty.

RACE 4: 6-5-2-7

#6 FRILLS is the one to catch for new trainer Mertkan Kantarmaci, who picked up two wins here on Thursday afternoon.  This mare was taken for 12.5k 10 days ago and now returns for 20k, which is a positive sign.  The pace advantage she possesses is too much to overlook as well. The same aggressive ride she got last time would make her tough to handle.

RACE 5: 8-6-3-4

#8 AMERICAN LAW is the one to beat off a runner-up finish against similar foes last time out.  He has the tactical speed to stay within range from the start and the rider switch to Luis Saez should keep him more involved early.  That is a positive given the way this race shapes up on paper.

RACE 6: 8-7-6-11

When the comment line says “tough trip” you can only imagine what you’ll find upon viewing the replay.  The trip #8 LINNY KATE endured last time out was beyond brutal and she is in line to improve on the class drop.  Trainer Chad Brown is 33% with turf routers racing for tags for the first time at Saratoga ($2.12 ROI) and this is the right spot class-wise for this daughter of Tonalist.

RACE 7: 4-6-2-10

The race that #4 DON’T WAIT UP ran on debut was good enough to win this thing if duplicated.  He was away from the gate poorly, ranged up on the far turn and nearly won a stretch-long battle with Power Agenda.  That rival will contest this afternoon’s Hopeful, while this colt figures to be a heavy favorite.  A cleaner break from the gate will keep him more involved in the opening stages.

RACE 8: 5-2-7-10

There’s no doubt that #2 CONSUMER SPENDING is the one to beat.  However, #5 TOERIS is interesting on the stretchout in distance.  She had a tough trip in a productive turf sprint affair here last month and now looks to be the main speed.  The rider switch to Ricardo Santana, Jr. should ensure she is more involved right from the opening bell.

RACE 9: 2-7-4-5

#2 MISS JIMMY returns off a layoff and is now back in the care of Bruce Anderson.  This barn is 8 for its last 34 with dirt sprinters off 180+ day breaks ($4.32 ROI) and the pace in here should set up favorably for a late runner.  Look for her late, especially if things heat up on the front end.

RACE 10: 8-6-3-2

Anyone conceding this race to #6 WIT is making a mistake.  While he is clearly the one to beat, #8 HIGH OAK is still very interesting off the win in the Saratoga Special.  That son of Gormley was tremendously impressive in his last start and figures to get a good trip from just off the pace once again.  The pace could moderate in here, and it would help this Grade II winner substantially.

RACE 11: 6-12-2-7

There were a number of bet-backs from the 2nd week of August when the rails came down on the inner turf, including #6 COLD HARD CASH.  He was wide much of the way and still fought on gamely to the finish.  The rider change to John Velazquez who was on board for his win two back against lesser, is a good thing.  Look for him to stalk and pounce today.

RACE 12: 6-4-5-7

#6 NEW YORK SUPREME did everything but win last time out as she broke slowly, went wide then was carried out around the far turn.  She will be dangerous with a cleaner break from the gate, as that will put her more in the mix early.  Contention doesn’t exactly run deep in this field either.
















































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