Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis – Saturday, July 17, 2021

SARATOGA – 7/17/21

RACE 1: 3-8-2-9

#3 WAR SMOKE is a firster by War Dancer, whose progeny win on turf at a 12% clip and the dam here has produced 3 turf winners.  This colt is training forwardly and meets a modest field at first asking.  This barn has long had success with first timers as well.

RACE 2: 3-5-2

#3 BABY YODA is the one to catch as he joins Bill Mott’s barn off of two tries in Maryland.  He is training forwardly and will be aggressively ridden from the start given the lack of speed to his inside.  If able to get clear, he may forget to quit.

RACE 3: 9-1-2

There will be quite a bit more pace in here and that’ll help the cause of #9 THIRD DRAFT.  This daughter of Curlin broke her maiden two starts back when she was up in time and now makes her 2nd start against winners.  The pace was very slow in her last start and she ran in place late.  This will be a better setup.

RACE 4: 8-7-2

#8 AUSTRIAN was badly pace compromised in his last start and should be rolling late in this affair.  He got into form quickly over the winter and now is re-united with the red hot Luis Saez who has had a tremendous start to the meet.  If things end up shaking out as they look to on paper, he’ll be a major force in the lane.

RACE 5: 4-9-5-1

#4 DETROIT CITY was off to a poor start on debut and wound up racing along the rail the entire way.  He stands to benefit from having that race behind him and the reports on his training are positive.  You’ll get a square price here as well.

RACE 6: 4-7-10

It is not supposed to be as simple as taking the Chad Brown trainee in this type of affair, but #4 PORTFOLIO COMPANY sports strong credentials. He is by Kitten’s Joy, a 14% turf sire and is out of a dam who has produced 3 turf winners.  The balance of this field includes the well-bred #7 INFORMAL.

RACE 7: 6-1-11-7

Certain jockeys fit certain horses and #6 DURESS is 2-2 with Jose Ortiz in the irons.  He was a game 3rd last time out in his first start off a long break, as he stalked a hot pace that collapsed that day and stayed on gamely.  The shorter trip will suit him well and he figures to be in an ideal stalking spot from the outset.

RACE 8: 5-1-12-10

Many had #5 TEN FOR TEN pegged as a Triple Crown prospect after his runner-up finish in the Remsen, and he is now making his headily delayed 2021 debut.  He is suited well to 7 furlongs and should be rallying late in a race with a good amount of early zip.  The presence of #1 BEAU LIAM and #12 MAHAAMEL guarantees a good price as well.

RACE 9: 7-1-2-9

#7 OTTOMAN EMPIRE showed the ability to rally from off the pace, which is important given the way this race figures to unfold on paper.  He will get a strong pace to run at in here and is suited well to the 6 furlong trip and beyond.  The runner-up from his debut score has since returned to win, which only adds to the appeal.

RACE 10: 7-6-5-8

#7 LEMISTA has been freshened since a positive North American debut at 8.5 furlongs and now returns at 9 panels for Chad Brown.  She rallied into a slow pace in the Beaugay and this figures to be a slightly more honestly run race.  With any improvement off that early May run, she’ll be the one to beat.

RACE 11: 2-8-7-4

#2 COOL QUEST is a second timer who showed plenty of ability on debut for trainer Brian Lynch.  He should benefit from having that race under his belt and will be a good price today.  It also appears as if the early lead is his for the taking.





















































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