Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis – Saturday, July 23, 2022

SARATOGA – 7/23/22

RACE 1: 7-9-2-5

#7 ACTIVIST INVESTING is a firster by Kingman for connections that have specialized with international buys.  He is training well and progeny of Kingman are 7-31 in their North American debuts.  #9 RECKONING FORCE is from the yard of Joey O’Brien, who is seeking redemption following a poor run in the Friday opener from Alexis Zorba.  This colt should have an edge going long on the lawn.  #2 REALLY GOOD is bred well for turf and should be a threat on debut for a barn that is having a good meet.  The siblings include a 2x winner on the lawn.

RACE 2: 2-7-5

#2 ME ‘N SAP is back on short rest following a subpar effort against much better here on opening day.  He goes 3rd off a layoff for trainer Dave Donk and can be a threat if he runs back to the score two back.  The pace in that race was solid and he was on top of it before collaring the leader late.  #7 BRAZILLIONAIRE goes 2nd off a claim after crushing a field of 50k N2L sellers last time out.  He has speed and should be prominent throughout in this spot.  #5 STANHOPE is a speedster dropping in class for trainer Bonnie Lucas and is a threat to get the lead early today.  His best races are good enough for him to contend in here.

RACE 3: 6-5-4-7

#6 REPEALING scored at second asking and now faces winners for the first time.  This filly ran into a group of killers on debut and came back from the bench with a strong performance.  She still has plenty of upside as just a 3rd time starter.  #5 ROOKERY shortens up in distance for trainer Wayne Catalano after chasing the pace and checking in second last time out.  She can be a late threat if the pace heats up in here, and there’s a fair chance of it.  #4 BREAKFASTATBONNIES returns off a break for trainer Danny Gargan and should be actively involved in the pace this afternoon.  She has run well on dry surfaces and hasn’t had a chance to be on one in four races.

RACE 4: 6-4-3-1

#6 VERONICA GREENE moves to turf for trainer Chad Brown after two promising efforts on the dirt for Chad Brown.  This barn is 25% with non-first timers moving to turf in MSW events ($2.03 ROI).  The pedigree here is robust for the lawn and she should improve with experience.  #4 JANE MAST is a second time starter who showed plenty on debut, as she checked in 3rd after encountering some trouble at the quarter pole.  The extra ground should do her no harm at all.  #3 WINGS LIKE EAGLES had all kinds of trouble last time out after a slow break from the gate and traffic-laden trip through the lane.  She should be better with experience as well and will be a square price.

RACE 5: 3-5-2-1

#3 NEST bids to turn the tables on #5 SECRET OATH after she latter bested her in Kentucky.  Each came back to face males in subsequent triple crown events and Nest was a very good second in the Belmont Stakes.  She has trained very well for this affair and can stay close to what should be a modest pace.  The aforementioned Secret Oath needs no introduction given she won handily in the Kentucky Oaks.  She is another who is versatile enough to stay close early given the expected soft pace and she also comes in the right way off the brief break.  #2 SOCIETY is 3-3 and should be on the lead today for Steve Asmussen.  He has been training her with Clairiere and she is a threat if left alone on the front end.

RACE 6: 5-8-1-6

#5 POWERFUL is a first timer by Nyquist, whose progeny hit on debut at a 17% clip.  The dam here was a 2YO winner and she has dropped two winners from as many to race.  The worktab here looks very strong.  #8 PHELPSY is by Into Mischief, a 17% debut sire and is out of a dam who was a 5x winner.  The barn here is top notch with all kinds of runners and this colt looks ready to roll.  #1 SUMMONYOURCOURAGE is the most experienced runner in this field and has shown plenty of ability in two prior starts.  He has not really taken a step forward, which is the only real concern.

RACE 7: 9-8-4-2

#9 ROYAL DANCER has shown plenty of speed in his last two starts and is a major threat from the start in here.  She is quick enough to be prominent and her improvement thus far is noteworthy.  #8 WRITERS ROOM put together a nice late run in her debut after lagging behind early.  She was fourth in that affair and trainer Linda Rice is 25% with second time starters in MSW turf sprints ($2.83 ROI).  Look for her to improve with experience.  #4 SINFULLY SWEET is the one to beat on Thorograph numbers and enters off a strong performance.  She has the tactical speed to stay close and this is her third start off a break.

RACE 8: 7-2-4-6

#7 HIGHLY RESPECTED has run two very good races since a debut win that earned him a big Beyer speed figure.  He has good tactical speed and should be in stalk and pounce range from the start today.  Anything similar to his last would make him tough to handle.  #2 PEACEFUL WATERS is a speedster who is training forwardly for his second start off a break.  The barn here has annually done well at Saratoga and the comeback race last time out at Churchill was solid.  #4 FAVORITE OUTLAW is another pace player and he enters off a good runner-up effort at Churchill Downs.  If he can get a good stalking spot outside ‘Peaceful he’ll be tough to handle.

RACE 9: 7-2-1-5

#7 STAGE RAIDER is the one to beat for trainer Chad Brown off a narrow miss last time out against similar foes.  He bested Highly Motivated that afternoon, who will go postward in the Monmouth Cup today on the Jersey shore.  He is suspect at the distance but has come back from the break in improving form.  #2 THE REDS is new to the care of Saffie Joseph, Jr., who is 33% with dirt routers who are new to his barn, including 4 for his last 5 in those categories.  This colt has shown plenty for an inferior trainer and is a player today.  #1 UNCLE MOONLIGHT is the speed from the inside today as he exits a wire-to-wire win earned early on Belmont Stakes day.  He was helped by a big speed bias that day and will be over bet today.

RACE 10: 2-5-4-1

#2 MISS J MCKAY was wide last time out in the Intercontinental on a day when saving ground was of great importance.  She is a great fit at this distance and trip and should get the best of it pace-wise as well.  #5 TOBYS HEART was disadvantaged by a poor break last time out but still put in a nice late run while wide.  She can be a threat from just off the pace today at a fair price as well.  #4 BOUT TIME was an impressive winner at Keeneland last time out and now steps up in class.  She showed real potential that afternoon and is ready for deeper waters.

RACE 11: 10-1-8-5

#10 LORD FLINTSHIRE has been facing better competition in the NY bred ranks and fits well here.  He should be heard from late, though it’ll benefit him if Jose Lezcano keeps him closer early.  #1 FRONT MAN was compromised by a slow pace in a merry go round race last time out and will benefit if there’s pace on in here.  #8 CATCH THAT PARTYbested Front Man last time out and is a major threat today second off a claim by Mike Maker.

SARATOGA STATS: 61-13-12-8   $84.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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