Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis – Sunday, August 15, 2021

SARATOGA – 8/15/2021

RACE 1: 8-4-5-3

#8 SILIPO is a firster by Candy Ride out of the 10x winner Lisa’s Booby Trap who appears to be training forwardly for a high percentage barn. The outside post in this weak field is ideal and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr. only adds to the appeal.

RACE 2: 5-9-10-6

#5 ANSEL is a second timer who had enough trouble on debut to be given another shot here.  He was out of the gate sluggishly then ran into traffic down the backstretch before flattening out late.  Bill Mott had a great Saturday afternoon and looks to keep things rolling here.

RACE 3: 1-6-10-4

#1 SOCIAL WHIRL was an impressive maiden winner last time out sitting on top of the pace before exploding late.  Trainer Tom Morley is a solid 20% with turfers fresh off maiden wins, good for a $2.48 ROI and this one can be a major pace threat from the opening bell.

RACE 4: 4-1-3

There’s reason to take a chance against the 1-2 morning line favorite here and #4 SARATOGA PAL is the interesting choice.  He loves Saratoga based on two vastly improved races here last summer and comes in with good recent form having creamed a field of allowance runners last time out at Finger Lakes.

RACE 5: 9-2-4-8

A full sister of BC Juvenile Fillies and Eclipse winner Caledonia Road, #9 CELESTIAL is training forwardly for her debut.  She meets a solid looking bunch and has an ideal outside post.  Yesterday’s Saratoga Special made it clear that Mott is putting more emphasis on getting his 2YOs going earlier.

RACE 6: 9-6-1-3

Let’s try for an upset with #9 HAPPY HILL LIL who gets a rider switch to Jorge Vargas, Jr. after trying to rally into a glacial pace last time out.  She goes 2nd off a layoff and showed clear improvement in her first turf try.  There’s little to no good form in this race.

RACE 7: 4-5-7-8

The runner most affected by traffic and pace last time out was #4 FUTURE VICTORY, who had a wide outside post, got steadied down the backstretch then was stuck behind a wall in the stretch.  This barn is heating up of late, and he figures to get a much better trip drawn down towards the inside on a course that’s rewarding ground savers.

RACE 8: 8-7-4-2

Amid the resurgence in the career of trainer Pat Reynolds we’ve seen him do well with horses off of barn changes, just like #8 JESSICA.  The basis of the appeal of this mare is that she has speed in a race largely devoid of it.  An aggressive ride from Joel Rosario can make her a major threat at a big price.

RACE 9: 8-7-1-10

#8 BYE BYE cuts back in distance for trainer Christophe Clement and seems more suited to sprinting.  She was a game winner two back of the Soaring Softly and figures to be in a similar spot rating just off the pace.  There’s still a ton of upside here, even with her recent setback.

RACE 10: 2-6-5-3

#2 ALPHA BABE stepped up with a big effort in breaking her maiden last time out in mid-June and now lands in a realistic spot for her first try against winners.  The field she beat is dubious, but she showed versatility in coming from off the pace and figures to save ground from the start over a course that has been death for outside runners.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply to Chris Jones Cancel reply

2 comments

Further reading

Cross Country Pick 5 5.28.2022

Cross Country Pick 5 5.28.2022

Cross Country Pick 5 5/28/22   Thought this was a really fun sequence to handicap. Big, deep fields that look extremely competitive. I feel like...