Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis – Wednesday, July 20, 2022

SARATOGA – 7/20/22

RACE 1: 7-3-4

#7 IRANISTAN returns from a brief break for Keri Brion, who is among the best jump trainers in the game.  This gelding is a graded stake winner and has done particularly well at Saratoga.

RACE 2: 3-4-7

#3 HOLIDAY JAZZ drops in class off a dull effort at Belmont and is in line to rebound this afternoon.  She adds blinkers and should be in stalk and pounce range from the outset at a fair price.  The scratch of #1 EVOKING makes the job of #4 MARIAH’S FORTUNE that much easier as the latter will be a heavy favorite.  She drops in class for Brad Cox, whose barn is 36% with claimers on dirt cutting back from routes to sprints over the last 5 years ($2.03 ROI).  #7 INFRINGEMENT switches surfaces and drops in class and should be a late threat here with any pace help whatsoever.

RACE 3: 7-5-6

#7 IZEAMALIBUMOON faced MSW competition on debut at Monmouth and ran well to be 3rd as the 3-1 favorite.  Trainer Jose Camejo now sends the daughter of Gormley up the Thruway for a Saratoga try and she ends up with an outside post and the meet’s top pilot.  Look for her to be tough to handle.  #5 AUNT VIRGINIA is another second timer from the barn of Jose Camejo, and this filly ran a bang-up race on debut as well.  She ended up 2nd at 40-1 to a Christophe Clement trainee who came back to underperform at Colonial Downs.  Her tactical speed is a weapon.  #6 SEEMS TO WHISPER is the first foal to race out of a dam who was unraced.  Progeny of Freud win on debut at a 9% clip and the stable is top notch.

RACE 4: 2-1-6-3

#2 SWEET FRANNY LU got into serious traffic trouble on the backstretch last time out when a rival in front of her ran into issues.  She should rebound here and showed a key new dimension in a victory two back sitting off the pace and pouncing late.  That’s a weapon here given the pace scenario.  #1 OUT OF SIGHT is the one to beat for trainer Dave Donk, who is having a very strong 2022.  She is the main speed from this inside post, but has also been effective rating from just off the pace.  Much will depend on how Jose Ortiz rides her early.  #6 INSTINCTIVE is a late threat who figures to be a strong late player here.  She was 10-1 last time out and also had issues on the backstretch like the top pick.  The price here will be fair as well.

RACE 5: 3-5-9-10

#7 STELLAR LADY is a firster who is by Shackleford, a 12% debut sire.  The dam here was a 2YO winner and she has dropped 3 winners including one who annexed a stake race.  The worktab here looks strong and there aren’t many runners worthy of fear.  #4 WHATCHAMACALL is new to the barn of Jose Camejo, who has had success in NY in the past.  New runners to this stable hit at a 22% clip with a breakeven ROI and the debut effort was solid.  She should have speed to offer today and an aggressive pilot.  #2 U GLOW GIRL is by Girvin, an upstart freshman sire who has 4 debut winners in his first crop.  The dam here was a stakes winner and the worktab features a recent sharp gate drill.

RACE 6: 10-1-5-6

#6 HAPPY FARM is probably a bit too much for this field given his recent form.  This is the right class level and the drop is hardly panicky given he was taken for just 32k back in February.  He has tactical speed and should be stationed just off the pacesetters in this field.  #2 COPPER TOWN goes first off a claim for Mertkan Kantarmaci after missing by a head last time out as the 6/5 favorite.  He lures Irad Ortiz, Jr. once again off the claim and has the speed to get control of this race early.  There’s at least a chance of a hot pace in here between Copper Town and #5 ARISTOCRATIC.  The latter is a fleet-footed veteran who knows no other way than to make all so look for him to come out swinging.

RACE 7: 3-6-2-4

#3 HEY THERE is the one to beat given her early foot and recent improvement.  She nearly made all going 7 panels last time out and came from off the pace in the race prior at today’s distance.  That versatility is a major weapon in this affair.  #6 MRS. GREEN was 4th behind Hey There and two others last time out, improving incrementally from a promising debut.  She will be a late threat here should things heat up on the front end.  #2 CROWDING OUT returns off a lengthy break and should be in the mix from the outset today.  She showed some life early in her career but faltered when last seen at Belmont.  If she can get a spot behind the pacesetters her chances will improve.

RACE 8: 2-4-6-9

It feels a tad risky to trust #2 SMASH TICKET too much.  However, her last race at Lone Star was sensational in comparison to what her competition here has regularly put forth.  She has the speed to control things from the inside post and still sports tremendous upside.  #4 SECRET LOVE ran into a tough group of NY bred sprinters last time out and had more run than she was asked for by jockey John Velazquez.  She can target the leaders late if there’s a battle on the front end and she’ll be a good price.  #6 BETSY BLUE is another late runner who’ll benefit if there’s pace in front of her here.  Like many of her rivals, this filly is 8-10 points slower than the top pick’s last win, so that one needs to falter.

RACE 9: 3-1-5-4

#3 LISA’S VISION stretches out in distance off a win for trainer Jorge Abreu, whose barn is heating up at Saratoga.  This filly was impressive in victory last time out, stalking a slow pace before pulling away late.  More ground should be no issue and she’s spotted realistically from a class perspective.  #1 SOLIB is a threat to go the distance having set a strong pace last time out before being collared on the wire.  She has only one way to go and an inside post, so look for a frontrunning trip.  #5 SHE’S A MIA goes 3rd off a layoff for Christophe Clement after posting consecutive runner-up finishes at Belmont.  She had no excuse last time when unable to run down the pacesetter, but more ground should help.

RACE 10: 7-6-3-4

#7 BIG WOO returns off a layoff as a new gelding, with lasix as well for new trainer Wayne Catalano.  There’s turf on the dam side and this gelding had no opportunity to show much on debut.  There’s reason to believe he’ll improve here, one of which is an abundance of speed in here.  #6 BLINDING LIGHT is a second time starter who debuted against MSW competition at Gulfstream.  He moves to the turf and should be a threat from the outset.  There’s very little turf pedigree here but he showed plenty on debut.  #3 SUPER QUALITY showed big speed last time out first time on turf before being collared late.  He should improve second off a layoff and will get a good trip behind the speed.

SARATOGA STATS: 41-7-8-5       $44.80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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