Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Selections and Analysis – Wednesday, July 27, 2022

SARATOGA – 7/27/22

RACE 1: 6-8-7-1

 

#6 FREDDY FLINTSHIRE returns off a layoff after failing in his first try against winners.  He was an impressive debut winner and is dangerous if he runs back to that effort.  #8 WELSHMAN faced better last time out and now returns off a layoff for a top barn.  #7 STATE OF AFFAIR returns off a layoff and has previously run some strong races over the jumps.

 

RACE 2: 6-1-4-3

 

#6 BIG TONY’S GIRL has run on sealed tracks in four straight races and now gets a dry strip and a class drop.  She is a late running type who’ll benefit if the pace heats up this afternoon.  Her best races undoubtedly makes her competitive and her price will be fair.  #1 KNOW ANYMORE is a heavy morning line favorite, but is still a filly coming from a significantly lesser circuit. She is quick enough to get command early, but will offer no value at the windows at even money. #4 DAILY BRIEFING was bested by ‘Big Tony last time out and now drops in class as she comes back from a layoff.  Trainer John Terranova picked up a big win here on Saturday and this filly is spotted well class-wise.

 

RACE 3: 2-5-6-7

 

#2 DISARMED is a firster by Maclean’s Music, whose progeny win at a rate of 17% on debut as 2YOs.  This colt is training well and is out of a dam who produced onie turf winner from as many to try it.  She is a half to Grade I winner You as well.  #5 NOBLE HUNTSMAN is a firster by Noble Mission, whose progeny hit at a 10% clip in their turf debuts.  The dam here was all turf and her dam was a turf winner.  #6 WEYHILL FARM RD is a second timer who showed little on debut on dirt.  She is bred for turf given her dam won over it and she has produced two other turf winners.

 

RACE 4: 1-2-4

 

#1 FRANK’S ROCKETTE nearly bested #2 BELLA SOFIA when they met in the Vagrancy back in May.  She comes back from a layoff today and will benefit from ‘Sofia getting more competition in the opening stages.  The inside post does her no harm and some of her best races have come right here at Saratoga.  The aforementioned Bella Sofia is the one to beat after winning the Bed O’ Roses last time out at Belmont.  She had the run of the race that day and still held on by a diminishing margin.  She’ll have to improve to win again here.   #4 KIMARI has not run back to her best races from 2021 in her three starts this year.  She is drawn favorably to stalk the pace on the outside and get the jump on the closers.

 

RACE 5: 2-6-3

 

#2 FORWARDLY scored at third asking last time out in his first try going long on the lawn.  Trainer Chad Brown specializes with distance turfers, and this colt stayed close to a strong pace before winning going away late.  The runner-up performed credibly in his next start, so there’s reason to upgrade this son of Twirling Candy.  #6 MONEY LOVE is new to the barn of Bill Mott after winning a race in Germany last month.  He has some tactical speed and that will help him stay within range early.  #3 JARREAU moves back to turf and the best thing to do is draw a line through his last two outings.  He performed well on the lawn prior to that and can get the jump on the closers.

 

RACE 6: 11-6-7-4

 

#11 BANTERRA worked :10 at the OBS April sale and looks to be training well for this debut effort.  The dam here was a debut winner at 2 and progeny of Practical Joke hit at a 20% clip with debuting 2YOs.  The outside post would help his cause.  #6 DISRUPTION is a firster also by Practical Joke and the dam here was a 2x winner.  She is kin to NY bred stake winner Kept Waiting and looks to be training forwardly for this try.  #7 MIRACLE is a firster by Mendelssohn, who is yet to have a debut winner in his first crop.  The dam here was winless, but the workta looks strong for an underrated barn.

 

RACE 7: 3-1-5-4

 

#3 VINTAGE GIRL made a token late move last time out in her second start off a claim by trainer Jimmy Ryerson.  She is a late runner who’ll benefit if the pace heats up today, and the field she meets is softer than what she did last time out.  Look for her late in the game in here.  #1 HATARI drops in for a tag for Mike Maker, whose barn is quietly having a good run at the young meet.  She draws well on the inside and should save ground from the start under the meet’s top pilot.  #5 MIRTH’N MERRIMENT is the one to catch today as she changes surfaces from a couple of synthetic tries at Presque Isle Downs.  Trainer Tim Hamm is just 2-19 with routers going synthetic to turf over the last five years ($0.74 ROI) and that’s the most significant negative.

 

RACE 8: 5-8-9-7

 

#5 PREPOSTEROUS is in for a tag for the first time as she cuts back in distance.  Trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. is 37% with dirt starters racing for tags for the first time ($2.72 ROI) and this filly should be able to sit back and make one run in a race with plenty of confirmed speed.  #8 O’GOTTEN GIRL is in for a tag for the first time for trainer Todd Pletcher.  This filly has plenty of early speed and is spotted where she can have success today.  Pletcher is 33% with Spa dirt starters racing for a tag for the first time who went off as favorites.  His ROI with those types is just $1.57 though.  #9 UNLOCK is the one to catch from the outside post and drops in class this afternoon.  She is quick enough to be a major player from the start and you’ll get a square price here to boot.

 

RACE 9: 3-1-5-7

 

#3 PHANTOM VISION stretches out in distance and should be the one to catch this afternoon.  Trainer Mike Maker is 23% with turfers at the Spa stretching out from sprints to routes over the last five years ($3.17 ROI) and the other potential speed in here will be scratched after running on Saturday.  #1 HIGH OPINION has run well against considerably better recently and should save ground from the start now.  She is versatile in terms of running style and has gotten into the best form of her career in recent months.  #5 MESSIDOR is more of a threat going shorter, but 5.5 panels is probably not enough.  That’s the quandary that Saratoga turf racing creates, and this filly is a great example.  She should be a late threat here from well off the pace.

 

RACE 10: 6-4-3-11

 

#6 ALESSIA is a second timer who ran a bang-up race on debut for Hall of Famer Nick Zito.  She broke slowly on debut then made a big late move to check in third.  She should improve with experience and returns from a layoff today.  The strength of that race cannot be called into question, as the winner ended up in a recent graded stake.  #4 COURSE RUNNER is a second time starter who landed in a solid field on debut and should improve with experience.  Trainer Rusty Arnold has a solid strike rate and positive ROI when it comes to second timers in MSW races on dirt ($2.02 ROI).  #3 LIQUIDITY PROVIDER is a firster by Connect, whose progeny win on debut at a 11% clip.  This filly is out of a multiple stakes placed mare who has produced three winners.  She appears to be training well for her unveiling.

 

SARATOGA STATS: 61-13-12-8   $84.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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