SARATOGA – 7/28/2023
RACE 1: 4-7-2-9
#4 AGGELOS THE GREAT is by 11% debut sire City of Light and went for 100k at auction earlier this year. He is out of a dam who was a multiple stakes winner in her day and she has dropped 3 winners from 5 to race. The clockers loved this colt’s last couple of drills and trainer George Weaver has had a productive spring and summer with 2YOs.
RACE 2: 3-5-7-8
In a couple of prior turf engagements, #3 FLUID SITUATION has looked like a stakes horse and gets the nod here off a short layoff. He was last seen chasing a hot early pace going 6 panels at Belmont before weakening and now comes back a sixteenth shorter. Less distance is likely best for him and this is a race where he can get fully engaged early under Javier Castellano.
RACE 3: 2-1-8-3
#2 DREAM FLY returns off a lengthy break in for a tag for trainer Wesley Ward after competing well against MSW runners in lesser circuits last year. She is drawn well inside to save ground and lures Joel Rosario, with whom Ward has had a great deal of success both at Saratoga and beyond.
RACE 4: 9-5-1-6
As tempting as it is to take a stand against #9 QUICK MUNNY, it is hard to ignore the run that trainer Linda Rice is on coming into this card. She has 14 wins after earning 4 more on Wedesday and Thursday and she has this daughter of Munnings first off a claim this afternoon. She is the main speed on the outside and can rate comfortably in the opening stages if need be as well.
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RACE 5: 7-2-5-4
#7 COLLOQUY is the horse to beat off a good third place finish in a similar event downstate at Belmont. He has the necessary tactical speed to be in the mix throughout and gets in light with the bug boy on board. The field he meets here is also drastically weaker than the one he faced in his last outing.
RACE 6: 10-1-2-3
It’s worth trying #10 TOOFAREASTISWEST in this spot off a 2nd place finish at Laurel that was far better than it looks on paper. This son of Street Sense was in range of the slow pace and unleashed a potent late bid to get up for second as the even money favorite. He should handle more ground with no issue and the addition of blinkers should have him forward early.
RACE 7: 2-10-7-6
#2 DR. SETTLE’S DREAM showed ability early in his career and ran races that were fast enough to contend with these types. He flopped in his return then improved last out and is making the third start of his form cycle in a race where he can stalk the pace and pounce late. He’ll also be the best price of the contenders in this affair.
RACE 8: 9-8-5-2
The class drop on #9 PROVE RIGHT is a tad disconcerting, though he is likely just a 50k claimer at this stage of his career. He drew well on the outside and should stalk the pace today under a more aggressive pilot. His odds will likely drift down even off the morning line given the running lines he possesses from this year.
RACE 9: 1-8-10-3
#1 ARUBA is in for a tag for the first time and draws a favorable inside post for trainer Jorge Abreu. This gelding has no speed and it makes things tough more often than not, as he loses touch with his rivals in the early stages. He has been best around two turns and did run well enough last time out to be given extra consideration in this spot.
RACE 10: 4-1-5-3
#4 GILMORE figures to get an enormous pace setup today coming in off a third-place finish in last month’s Woody Stephens. He retains Irad Ortiz, Jr. which will move his price down, but his form makes him deserving of support. The trio of potential frontrunners in here should ensure an honest early gallop.
RACE 11: 10-1-8-2
Aside from hailing from the nation’s hottest barn, #10 VARIABLE COST actually did run better last time than it looks on paper. He broke slowly then was stuck behind a moderate pace that was dominated on the front end. Even though he didn’t improve much from his debut, his runner-up finish that day behind win machine Pioneering Spirit sure looks better now.
SARATOGA 2023 STATS: 112-33-15-14 $192.60
