SARATOGA – 7/29/23
RACE 1: 6-7-5-3
#6 MODICA worked well on the turf back on June 30 and is out of a dam who was stakes placed on turf. Progeny of Hard Spun win at a 9% clip both on debut as 2YOs and on turf and trainer George Weaver has already had a banner year with 2YOs on grass given his multiple debut winners this spring and a Royal Ascot score to boot.
RACE 2: 4-6-5-3
#4 BOLD JOURNEY ran a bang-up race to clear the NY bred N2X condition back in February and was impressive enough to get a start in the Carter back in early April. He is now a candidate to improve on the surface switch for Bill Mott as this son of Hard Spun likely should have been on the dirt the whole time.
RACE 3: 4-2-7-1-3
#4 STARRYSTARRYKNIGHT ran well up here last year and drops in class off a break for trainer Michelle Hemingway. This guy can settle and make one run in a race that seems heavy on speed types. He is going to be a square price as well in a particularly competitive affair. Look for him to arrive on the scene late.
RACE 4: 11-2-3-6
#11 CORNER KICK was claimed for 30k last time out and now races for 40k for Tom Amoss. She is training forwadly according to the clockers and has not had ideal goes of it in her last two dirt outings. Saving ground was essential at the Ellis Park portion of the Churchill Downs meet and this gal was wide the entire way in her last start.
RACE 5: 6-2-4-5
#6 STERLING SILVER is very appealing coming out of a strong effort in the Dancin Renee where things didn’t set up perfectly for her. The pace was solid, but she ended up making an inside move to reach contention before settling for third. There’s enough pace in here to setup her late bid and she will be a square price at or around 4-1.
RACE 6: 11-13-9-6 (OFF THE TURF: 1A-3-13-15)
#11 AUTUMN is not coming out of a common race among a number of these from the 17th of June and that is appealing. This gal also has speed on the stretchout in distance and should be ready to get involved from the outset. She was involved in a hot pace last time out before tiring and has a great deal of upside.
RACE 7: 6-9-8-4
In a loaded looking MSW event for babies you have a Pletcher, a Brown, the supposed fastest horse Danny Gargan has trained and Brad Cox’s #6 DRUM ROLL PLEASE. The sire, Hard Spun, has produced winners at a 9% clip as 2YOs and the dam was a multiple stakes winner who banked ¾ of a million dollars. The works here have reportedly been strong to boot.
RACE 8: 5-4-6-7
#5 GUNITE keeps on winning and performing at a high level, a winner of four straight domestically sprinting. He has more tactical speed than the likely favorite, #4 ELITE POWER, and his Aristides was his best to date. This barn seems to deliver every time they run a graded stake horse at the Spa.
RACE 9: 4-2-5-11 (OFF THE TURF: 13-14-15-1A)
#4 NO SHOW SAMMY JO was a very impressive maiden winner last time out in a race that has held up figure-wise. The runner-up came back to perform well on opening weekend here at the Spa and an also-ran won yesterday. This filly has tactical speed and that will help her stay close throughout.
RACE 10: 4-3-1-2
#4 SAUDI CROWN sports a massive pace advantage in this group and really turned heads with a losing performance in the Dwyer earlier this month at Belmont. He was the last addition to this field, and will end up being the most important one given his running style. Should he get loose early, he is a major threat to go the distance.
RACE 11: 7-5-9-8 (OFF THE TURF: 12-10-13-14
#7 KERRY takes a massive class drop while cutting back in distance as well, and trainer Joe Sharp sports strong numbers in this category (18%, $2.53 ROI). The speed in here is plentiful but there’s no reason to think this gal can’t sit just off of it and pounce when ready at a square price.
RACE 12: 6-7-3-5 (OFF THE TURF: 5-7-13-10)
If the morning line price of 6-1 is available on #6 LIBRETTO, should this race stay on turf, then jump on board. She has run well in two starts for Mike Maker, arguably besting anything she did for Jorge Abreu in 9 prior tries. Her effort last out was good in comparison to the other also-ran from there as this filly did more dirty work early.
SARATOGA 2023 STATS: 123-35-15-16 $201.00