SARATOGA – 7/30/23
RACE 1: 3-4-1-10
#3 WEIGH THE RISKS has reportedly trained well for her debut and should be able to handle dirt based on those drills. She draws favorably on the inside, has a couple of winning siblings on the main track and progeny of Mendelssohn hit at a 12% clip with first time starting 2YOs. Trainer Chad Brown’s barn looks to be hitting its stride.
RACE 2: 6-2-7-8
#6 SHIGEKO nearly cleared this condition last time out for Christophe Clement and now returns off a break for new trainer Linda Rice. She surged late to narrowly miss in that affair and faces weaker off the bench this afternoon. Her best races make her very tough to handle and she is an ideal fit at this level.
RACE 3: 8-3-10-12
It stands to reason some will be driven away from Nicholas Palmer, but #8 SEDONA RED is clearly the one to beat as he ships up from Gulfstream. The only real concern here is whether he can be as effective on a dry racetrack, but his two dirt races are much better than anything her rivals in here have offered up. Look for her to get involved from the outset today.
RACE 4: 5-7-3-2
#5 CHAMPAGNE POETRY goes first off a claim by Ray Handal returning off a layoff. She was taken for 30k off a trainer who has limited success on this circuit. She began her career impressively and then tailed off, which is hardly a shock given the barn she was in before. The fact she’s protected from a tag is notable and Handal is 15% first off the claim off of 60+ day breaks ($3.74 ROI).
RACE 5: 8-9-10
#8 SIGNAL FROM NOISE goes 2nd off a layoff after finishing 2nd in the Lady’s Secret behind next out Molly Pitcher winner Shotgun Hottie. She was stuck inside much of the way at Monmouth that afternoon and should be very tough to handle this afternoon. The distance here will be taxing for many and this filly should have no issue.
RACE 6: 4-6-5-3
#4 MUGEN is a first timer who is training well for Steve Asmussen. This filly is by Into Mischief, a 16% debut sire and is out of a dam who won the Grade I Test here in 2016. She should have plenty of gate speed, as most Asmussen trainees do, in her unveiling.
RACE 7: 2-4-9-10
Chad Brown possesses a strong hand here with #2 KURAMATA and #4 UNANIMOUS CONSENT. Both of them are coming back off long breaks, but the former has run particularly well fresh and is now a new gelding. He should be set for his best off the bench as this barn surges towards the top of the trainer standings at the meet.
RACE 8: 6-8-2-7
#6 LEFTEMBEHIND made up serious ground last time out on the lawn and now changes surfaces for trainer Barclay Tagg. This gelding worked well here last week to prepare for this engagement and is facing drastically weaker foes than he has in previous dirt tries. He was wide much of the way the last time he tried dirt and that was a day when being inside helped.
RACE 9: 9-1-7-3
#9 REBEL’S ROMANCE was an unexpected entrant in a race that is essentially a “prep” for next month’s Sword Dancer. Nonetheless, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf winner is likely to be a heavy favorite as he returns from a layoff. He was ineffective behind Equinox in the Dubai Sheema Classic, which is no surprise given that one’s talent. He should get some pace to run at here and will be hard to hold off late.
RACE 10: 14-10-2-7
#14 LITTLE PRANKSTER looks like a virtual cinch in the nightcap adding blinkers off a two-turn effort at Ellis last month. She has been effective sprinting in the past and will be more engaged early with the shades. What’s left of this field will hardly be robust given it was scheduled for the lawn.
SARATOGA 2023 STATS: 135-38-18-17 $224.30
