SARATOGA – 9/4/2023
RACE 1: 11-5-2-9-6
#11 SHE IS ALL BUSINES is bred top and bottom for turf and looms a major player if able to get in off the AE list. She is training well for Horacio De Paz, whose barn is heating up at the end of the line here at the Spa. Should she get into this field make sure to include her prominently in your Pick 5s.
RACE 2: 6-7-3-8
#6 COPPA GIRL is the one to beat in here off a narrow miss against similar foes going shorter. The 9 panel trip is ideal for her and she should be tough to handle if able to get involved in the pace. That’s where she can really strut her stuff and it’s where her rider is also at his most comfortable.
RACE 3: 4-5-3
In what is hardly a compelling edition of the Bernard Baruch, #4 WIT appears to be a heavy favorite and likely winner. Trainer Todd Pletcher generally has good numbers with fresh horses, but he’s specifically 4 for his last 13 with turf routers in graded stakes off 180+ day breaks ($3.00 ROI). This colt’s tactical speed will keep him in the mix early, even with a good tempo expected.
RACE 4: 6-8-9-5
#6 SWIFTSURE is the one to catch today in a race that lacks a great deal of speed. He set a pressured pace down towards the inside last time out before weakening late and his trainer’s barn is going better at the moment. His rider, Manny Franco, is also finishing the meet with a flourish.
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RACE 5: 7-6-4-3
#7 Z DANCER hails from a barn that had a longshot winner here during the week. He has run well enough in NY in the past and gets an aggressive pilot who should be able to keep him in range early. The favorites in here hardly inspire confidence and that’s enough to try a price horse.
RACE 6: 6-1-5-9
#6 SOLO’S FURY is a firster by Solomini, who has a couple of debut winners from this first crop. This colt is out of a dam who won 4x in her day and he worked :10 and 1/5 at the Fasig-Tipton sale at Timonium. Trainer Jeremiah Englehart has a 32% strike rate with 2YOs on dirt at Saratoga over the last five years, good for a $2.35 ROI.
RACE 7: 4-7-6-10
#4 SNOWY EVENING is a bit interesting here as she was too close to the pace last time out facing better. This is a spot where she can rate early and make one late run under Johnny Velazquez. This filly has been fast enough to win this race on her best days and will be largely overlooked in the wagering.
RACE 8: 9-8-6-10
#9 CALLALOO is a late threat for Dave Donk, who picked up his long awaited 2nd win at the meet on Saturday in the Harvey Pack. He brings this son of Trinniberg back off a long layoff today and will seek a 3rd career win here on the cutback in distance. There’s more than enough pace to set up his late bid in here and he’ll be a square price to boot.
RACE 9: 8-3-11-5
It’s hard to be overly confident in anyone here but #8 ALEXIS ZORBA is as interesting as any in this field. He ran a couple of respectable races locally in 2022 for Joey O’Brien and now shows up off a long layoff for Chad Brown. This barn is actually 27% with turf sprinters off 180+ day breaks over the last five years ($2.42 ROI) and he is training well coming into this spot.
RACE 10: 5-9-2-8
#5 TIMBERLAKE will look to say “bye, bye, bye” to this field as he steps up off a huge maiden win. He was victorious last time out at Ellis Park in a race that has held up nicely form wise in the ensuing 8 weeks. He showed increased speed last time and likely can take this group the distance, but a stalking trip is more likely given the race shape on paper.
RACE 11: 12-11-5-7
#12 SCARAMANGA is interesting trying turf for the first time with some real pedigree for the green. This colt is the first foal to race out of a mare who won 7 times on the lawn and is kin to turf stake winner Lovely Luvy. She is a candidate to step forward on the lawn and just has to overcome a tough outside post.
SARATOGA 2023 STATS: 400-102-65-62 $627.10
