SARATOGA – 9/3/2023
RACE 1: 8-6-5-7
#8 WEIGH THE RISKS was a good second on debut with a wide trip last time out and should improve with experience. This Chad Brown trainee was bet down to 11-10 favoritism in that debut and endured a wide trip en route to the narrow miss. Saving some ground today will go a long way towards her getting the job done.
RACE 2: 5-4-9-7
#5 SCHERZER ran a credible race on debut breaking from the rail at 14-1 in a big field at Belmont. He wound up getting out of the gate slowly, rushed up to reach contention on the far turn, then was steadied off heels around the ¼ pole losing all chance. He should benefit from having that race behind him and this is hardly a group of killers he’s found today.
RACE 3: 1A-4-5-2
#1A MOORE’S LAW unleashed a relentless late run last time out to break his maiden and now returns to face winners for his third start of this meet. There’s a good amount of pace signed on today and that should set up his potent late bid. While his speed figures are on the slower side in comparison to some of his competitors, he still has upside.
RACE 4: 4-6-7-1/1A
#4 HANG TIGHT shortens up in distance and drops in class today for Jesus Romero. He was a non-threatening 7thlast time out and now faces drastically weaker foes with some of his best races coming here at Saratoga. There should be a good deal of pace in here if the field holds together and that will only help his chances.
RACE 5: 2-3-10-8
#2 COWES is a first timer by Outwork, a 13% debut sire whose dam was winless on turf. This colt has reportedly trained well for the unveiling and trainer Wayne Catalano’s barn has done better with first timers in recent years. The rail draw is a negative but you have a heady veteran pilot signed up today.
RACE 6: 5-4-2-9
#5 NIKITIS got a great deal of support at the windows on debut going long on turf and now shortens up in distance while changing surfaces for Chad Brown. If she trained as well as she did prior to the unveiling on dirt, then there’s a reasonable chance she is simply a dirt horse. That’s worth a gamble here given her price will be far more appealing.
RACE 7: 5-1A-9-2
#5 LORD FLINTSHIRE never wins but enters off a strong third place finish against comparable foes in his 3rd flat outing for Keri Brion. He was close to a hot pace and stayed on well that afternoon, and that tactical speed should have him in the mix early. The pace in here figures to be contested and he will be a square price in the wagering.
RACE 8: 6-10-8-5
#6 EXCEPT TEMPTATION broke poorly from the gate last time out and made a huge wide move to reach contention around the far turn. She flattened out late but now gets a key rider upgrade given Javier Castellano’s ability in turf routes in comparison to Kendrick Carmouche. The issue here is her need for pace in front of her, which there should be today.
RACE 9: 8-9-3-2
#8 WAYS AND MEANS was a tremendously impressive debut winner who is now tackling Grade I competition for Chad Brown. She sat just off a modest pace in her debut and exploded late in that unveiling. The competition she faced was questionable, and this is a robust field, so the danger is taking a short price.
RACE 10: 3-9-1-7
#3 WHISKEY LULLABY faced considerably better in a fast paced race last time out and hung around gamely to the finish. That was her first outing off a layoff and she is now the lone speed in a race full of maiden claiming types. If she can sneak away early, she is a major threat to go the distance under an aggressive pilot.
SARATOGA 2023 STATS: 390-99-61-62 $611.80
