Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Selections and Analysis – Friday, August 5, 2022

SARATOGA – 8/5/22

 

RACE 1: 1-5-6-3

 

#1 WELL SPENT looks to be in an ideal position early given her running style as she goes first off a claim by Bentley Combs. The astute connections here obviously had an eye on this starter handicap affair.  She was a smashing winner when last seen and posted a number on any speed figure that makes her a standout today.  #5 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE is a veteran who has been around the block.  She’s now in the care of Chris Englehart first off a claim and figures to be a late threat today.  The quicker they go early, the better for this gal.  #6 INDIAN BELLA comes back to NY for trainer Mertkan Kantarmaci and shortens up in distance.  This barn has modest numbers with claimers cutting back on dirt, but this gal has a history of success in NY.

 

RACE 2: 3-7-5-9

 

#3 MAMA RINA comes up from Ellis and exits a slow-paced affair where the 1-3 finishers simply traded positions around the oval.  She is a late running type who’ll need some pace help, but also takes a key drop in class today for Kenny McPeek.  Look for her to arrive on the scene late.  #7 COMMAND POINT is a likely heavy favorite here, but there some major holes. She is now in the care of Rob Atras, who is not exactly a turf trainer, and he is 0-4 in the last five years with turf routers off 180+ day breaks. This gal has the credentials to win, but her odds will be unappealing.  If for no other reason than the way Javier Castellano is riding, include #5 QUARIA THUNDER off a smashing maiden win.  She is the one to catch again today for Mertkan Kantarmaci and you’ll get a square price at the windows.

 

RACE 3: 1-5-6-2

 

#1 THE OTHER CHAD did enough running on debut to be given serious consideration here and now shows up at 2ndasking as a new gelding.  He drew the rail, which is not the ideal starting spot, but a quicker break will put him more in the early mix.  #5 JAY’STALKER is a firster by 7% debut sire Emcee and is out of a mare who has dropped 5 winners.  The worktab here looks solid, and veteran trainer Bruce Levine can certainly have one ready on debut.  #6 CAPT’ REMINGTON is back at Saratoga after two recent strong outings at Finger Lakes. He nearly overcame a slow pace to win last time out and now lures Javier Castellano at a class level which compares favorably to what he faced at the “Thumb.”

 

RACE 4: 7-3-5-2

 

Not only has #7 GANDY DANCING previously run well at Saratoga, he also comes in with good recent form and speed in a paceless race.  That is enough to make him a major contender today at a price.  The favorites in here offer modest appeal and this son of Flatter also gets a weight break from his cozy outside post.  #3 TAPIZEARANCE goes 2nd off a claim following a horrendous effort last time out.  He likely couldn’t handle the class level at which he started last time out and he never fired.  This is the right spot from a class perspective and he’ll be a late player.  #5 MAGNETRON comes in with strong recent form for a barn that scored two opening week wins.  This one does his best running late, and fared well in his lone prior Saratoga outing.

 

RACE 5: 10-5-7-1

 

Given the pedigree of #10 HAIL TO, its no surprise she improved when sent a longer distance last time out.  She is a full sister of Grade I winning turf stayer Sadler’s Joy and this filly had shown ability from early in her career.  She showed more speed last time out and should be forwardly placed once again today.  #5 RHEAUME is a late runner who narrowly missed last time out in the race that Hail To also exits.  This gal scored a nifty win on debut and has run well in three starts since, collecting runner-up finishes in each outing.  If things heat up pace-wise, she is the prime beneficiary.  #7 GOOD MEASURE gets back to turf for Graham Motion and should benefit from doing so.  She has run on turf just once and it’s hard to make a judgment based on that event.  Her middle move last time out was ill-advised and a better timed ride will help today.

 

RACE 6: 1-2-8-4

 

#1 RUN FOR COVER is out of a dam who did all her damage on the turf and is training forwardly for Hall of Famer Mark Casse.  The rail draw is the only negative, but this gal will offer some value at the windows.  #2 LOVE TANK is the best of the experienced runners in the field and should have speed to offer with an aggressive pilot and an inside post.  The third place finisher from her last came back to run well here on Thursday afternoon.  #8 STELLAR LADY ran credibly on debut and now moves to turf for trainer Kenny McPeek.  She is out of a dam who has dropped two turf winners, so the grass should prove greener.

 

RACE 7: 4-3-8-2

 

#4 DIRECT ORDER goes first off a claim by Gustavo Rodriguez after surging late to finish second with a big pace setup last time out.  There should be enough pace for him to run at late this afternoon and Rodriguez sports a gaudy record of 5-9 with dirt routers first off of claims ($5.22 ROI).  #3 LIL COMMISSIONER has a tactical edge on the top pick with his early speed and gets in light with the bug boy astride this afternoon.  He goes 2nd off a short layoff today as well and seems to have found his friends at the 16k level.  #8 O SHEA CAN U SEE is another late runner who comes in with solid recent form.  He was 3rd behind Direct Order last time out and should be moving well late under the double bug.

 

RACE 8: 5-8-9-7

 

#5 STOLEN BASE was wide for much of the Belmont Derby and now cuts back a quarter-mile in search of his second graded stake of 2022.  He goes 2nd off a short layoff and will be re-united with the pilot who was aboard for his Kentucky Derby day score at Churchill Downs.  #8 CELESTIAL CITY is a late runner who fared well against elders last time out, rallying boldly to be 3rd after traffic trouble in upper stretch.  He was a game 2nd against stakes foes two back at Monmouth and stands in line to benefit if there’s pace in here.  #9 TIZ THE BOMB took the worst of it in the aforementioned Belmont Derby, racing wide the entire way when the inside was strong.  He is likely better at today’s trip and should be calling late.

 

RACE 9: 3-5-2-6

 

The only potential upsetter of heavy favorite #5 GOLDEN PAL is #3 ARZAK, who enters off a smashing performance north of the border.  In last month’s Hilander this son of Not This Time made a huge move off the far turn into the teeth of a hot pace before being outfinished late.  Shortening up to 5.5 panels will help his cause.  Golden Pal is back after an overseas foray that ended abruptly when he was unprepared for the start.  How much early pressure he faces today is unknown, and he has not been as sharp outside of Kentucky throughout his career.  #2 YES AND YES is a better turf sprinter and stands to benefit from shortening up in distance.  He was ineffective against graded stakes foes going a mile, but this is his trip and he’ll be a price.

 

RACE 10: 6-8-7-4

 

#6 WICKED LADY had real trouble in her last dirt start and now switches surfaces and drops in class.  She ran in a key race back on June 16 where the 1-2-3 finishers have since come back to win.  She should be too much for these cheaper foes.  #8 CAIAROSSA is a firster by Sky Mesa, whose progeny hit at a 13% clip.  The dam here was winless, but she has dropped 3 winners and everything from this barn has to be given an extra look at the moment.  #7 SKYWARD PRINCESS switches surfaces and is kin to four dirt winners.  Trainer Chad Brown has given her ample opportunities on turf with no success, and now adds blinkers in search of some untapped talent.

 

SARATOGA 2022 STATS:   145-31-30-21 $211.90

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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