Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Selections and Analysis – Thursday, August 4, 2022

SARATOGA – 8/4/22

RACE 1: 1-5-2-3

#1 LADY QUINN is reportedly training well for a competent barn . Progeny of Central Banker win on debut at a 8% clip and the dam here was a 5x winner.  If she is as quick as that recent 3 furlong spin shows, then she is a threat to go the distance.  #5 SICILIAN GRANDMA is up from Kentucky for Mike Maker after debuting against MSW runners.  She was bet down to 2-1 favoritism in that affair and showed little, which has prompted the class drop.  Why is she here?  #2 GIRL AFRAID is a third timer who faced males in her most recent outing when beaten at 11-10.  She is likely to be quick early given the speed she’s shown in two prior starts and this is the right spot class-wise.

RACE 2: 10-2-1-9

#10 PERSONAL PURSUIT has experience, which is important at this stage of the game.  She is by 11% turf sire Tapit and is out of a dam who was a 4x turf winner.  She has dropped 3 turf winners, so there’s reason to believe this gal can improve on the lawn.  #2 PRIVATE CREDIT is by Into Mischief, a 17% debut sire and is out of a dam who was a 3x winner on dirt.  This filly has been training well with an older horse in the morning and should be ready on debut for the meet’s top barn.  #1 PALLOTTA SISTERS is by Cairo Prince, a 13% debut sire and is out of a multiple graded stake winner in Canada.  She has been training well and starts for a barn that can have one ready on debut.

RACE 3: 2-3-5-6

#2 W W FITZY towers over her rivals here based on her last two outings.  When last seen, this mare crushed a field of N3X optional sellers at Churchill Downs for RObertino Diodoro and now looms a solid favorite in search of two in a row.  There’s an abundance of speed in here and that will help set up her late bid.  #3 PLAYED HARD is a prior winner at Saratoga and comes in with fast workouts for trainer Phil Bauer.  She has not been as sharp as a 4 year-old in two starts this year, including in a recent runner-up effort at odds of 1-5.  Look for her to be prominent from the start.  #5 FAMILY TIME is another speedster who’ll be in the mix early for trainer Dale Romans.  She has had the misfortune of facing tough competition of late and likely needed a bit of time away.

RACE 4: 6-5-7-4

The recent claim of #6 ALPINE QUEEN by Antonio Arriaga is a positive one.  He does well with these types, and this filly enters off a solid effort where she made a big middle move into a hot pace before staying on gamely.  She has the tactical speed to stay close throughout and is training nicely for this comeback.  #5 MY SWEET WIFE was claimed by Michelle Nevin last time out and she’s immediately moving to dirt.  That’s interesting given that this mare has a couple of prior wins on dirt.  The drop is not the most encouraging thing, but the claim with intent assuages those worries.  #7 RAFFINITY broke her maiden here at Saratoga last year and now drops in class second off a claim.  She has speed and should be involved from the start, especially from this outside post.

RACE 5: 2-3-8-6

#2 MISTICAL CURLIN drops in class for Kenny McPeek third off a layoff this afternoon.  He faced much tougher last time out and finished strongly to round out the superfecta.  Given that he’s spent the majority of his career against better, he is the one to beat today.  #3 SENSIBLE JIM is a homebred of 2007 Kentucky Derby winning owner Jim Tafel and now goes first off a claim.  Joe Sharp claimed this gelding last time out and now stretches him out in distance while moving down in class.  Sharp is 31% with dirt routers first off of claims over the last five years ($2.32 ROI).  #8 ONE MORE BABY is also dropping in class and should fare better against weaker competition.  His last start was woeful, but Churchill Downs form has held up well at this meet.

RACE 6: 1-7-8-5

#1 WHO ME broke poorly last time out and then made an early move to reach contention.  This colt will now wear blinkers on the stretch out in distance and has drawn favorably on the inside.  Look for Joel Rosario to put him more in the mix from the outset this afternoon.  #7 LACHAISE is a firster by Oscar Performance, who has one debut winner in his first crop.  The dam side pedigree here is loaded, as this colt is kin to two grass stakes winners.  #8 NEW YORK PANTHER was up for 2nd last time out as the 8/5 favorite going shorter.  He didn’t do a great deal of running in that affair and was second by default.  You’ll have to take a short price here.

RACE 7: 6-7-3-1

In her last start, #6 MAIL ORDER sat a perfect trip right off the pace and powered clear late.  A similar trip is in the offing today as she moves up in class given that there’s one speed horse signed up.  She still has plenty of upside given the immediate improvement shown last time out.  #7 ALWAYZ LATE is a late runner who was badly pace compromised last time out at Belmont.  There was no pace on in that 6 furlong affair, and this Bill Mott trainee made a good late move to round out the superfecta.  A quicker early pace will help her chances.  #3 SPICY MARG is the one to catch on paper as she comes back from a break.  Whether she is as good outside of Kentucky is the question, because she’ll definitely get an unencumbered lead.

RACE 8: 5-1-6-2

#5 ART COLLECTOR won the Alydar last year in a campaign that included a Grade I score in the Woodward.  He is looking to do something similar this year as he comes back off a break for Bill Mott.  This barn is 28% with dirt routers off 100-200 day breaks ($3.06 ROI) and a forwardly placed trip right off the pace is in the offing.  #1 MYSTIC NIGHThas won two in a row and comes back from a break this afternoon for trainer Chad Brown.  He is a late running type who’ll benefit if the pace heats up in this affair.  Whether he is good enough to beat Art Collector is the question.  #6 MASQUEPARADE ran a bang-up race when 3rd here in the Jim Dandy last year and now enters off a win for trainer Al Stall, Jr.  He has good tactical speed and should be in a stalk and pounce position from the outset here.

 

RACE 9: 2-1-4-6

#2 ATONE drops in class after running very well in the Forbidden Apple last time out.  The increased speed he’s shown in his last two starts is encouraging, as he will almost certainly get a forwardly placed trip this afternoon.  Given how battle tested he is against stakes company, he looms tough to beat today.  #1 EMARAATY was in a tight spot last time out when he ended up 2nd against similar foes at Belmont.  He is a two-time winner at Saratoga and is in need of a bit more racing luck to get over the hump and score another win today.  #4 BYE BYE MELVIN returns from a lengthy layoff for trainer Graham Motion.  He was a stakes winner before being sidelined, including taking the Saranac here at Saratoga.  Motion is a solid 21% with turf routers off 180+ day breaks ($2.69 ROI).

RACE 10: 4-1-7-3

#4 FREEDOMOFTHEPRESS ran a tremendous race last time out when 5th against similar foes at Belmont.  She got involved in a brutal pace and stayed on gamely to finish less than 3 lengths behind the leader.  A more patient ride will help her chances today given the pace scenario in here.  #1 STUCK ON KITTEN is a late runner who got into some traffic trouble in deep stretch last time out at Belmont.  She will benefit if the pace heats up in here and there’s reason to believe she’s still on the upswing.  #7 MISS DOMINA drops in class for trainer George Weaver after facing stakes company last time out.  She was ineffective against stakes foes last time out and now figures to improve 2nd off the bench with a recent fast workout.

SARATOGA 2022 STATS:   145-31-30-21 $211.90

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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