First off, PTF and JK look back at Belmont weekend and talk about trips, bias, and who was best in the various Grade 1s (2:15). Then they look ahead not only to the Saturday BEL Pick 5 but also the all graded stakes Pick 5 from Churchill Downs (49:35). Last but not least, Jason Beem is here to discuss weekend stakes at Monmouth, including the return to the races of Maximum Security (78:35).
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Hello and welcome to the NYRA bets players podcast. This is your host, Peter Thomas foreign, a towel back with you in the Brooklyn bunker. Once again, apologies for not getting this show out sooner. We wanted to do our Belmont review show. We tried Sunday, didn’t work out. We tried Monday. Didn’t work out.
We tried Tuesday. Didn’t work out now. It’s Wednesday when we’re recording and you know what, it isn’t even going to be released until tomorrow because we’ve got some Monmouth Sunday handicapping, that’s going to be appended on here. So we’re a little late, but I think it’s the kind of day of racing that the analysis will stay fresh because these are a lot of the horses we’re going to be seeing throughout the rest of the year and onto the breeders cup.
We keep describing this Belmont day card as sort of a mini breeders’ cup or a late spring breeders’ cup. We’ve used a lot of different ways of describing it, but to discuss it here with me and to bring it to you is our man the cohost on this program, he is calling in from the planet, Texas. He is the people’s champion.
He is Jonathan kitchen. What’s up JK. PTF. What’s the, uh, what’s the word? Yeah. I’m uh, looking forward to talking about these races. What a fun, fun, handful of races that we got to watch on on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Well, I think we’ll probably stick mostly to Saturday, unless there’s something that came up on the first two days that you feel a real hankering for.
But I did want to ask you about the Belmont stakes challenge. Hey, not a bad little finish for you. What’d you check in fifth, what’d you get out of that? Uh, an NHC spot, which the plan going into the last race was to play for a second. I was alive to Tacitus and I was alive to spin off for about six to $7,000, depending on which one won, uh, that would have put my total at around 35.
I felt like that was going to be good enough for second. If not second, it would be good enough for third. I just didn’t have a strong enough opinion in the last two race in the last two races too. Not risk to like out kick my coverage, essentially, and risk too much money trying to get the 60,000 prize.
I felt like if I could get second and get the $25,000 prize, get the $10,000 seat, whether it was the PCBC or the, or the Belmont situation that a, uh, $45,000 a day mixed in with a $30,000 bankroll was nothing to be ashamed of. And, uh, it just didn’t work out where, where I made that happen. I ended up falling all the way to fifth.
Got an HTC out of the deal. No big deal, no cash. Just the NHC for fifth. Yeah. It was like seven, $800 away from, from getting, uh, the $10,000 for fourth. But here’s the thing is, you know, at the time when I was in second and Nick was right behind me in third, I bet I was like $1,680 ahead of Nick. So I’d bet.
$1,600 with a doubles going into that last race. Because or that, you know, that lasts double. Cause I didn’t want to, I wanted to at least be able to stay in front of Nick if he missed. Um, it makes perfect sense. So jeopardy strategy, right. He hit, I missed, you know, well, and I think it’s a very good thing that you didn’t get aggressive there because I know you were not exactly.
And we’re not going to talk about this race yet. We’ll get to it. But you were not team, sir. Winston, I would assume had you gone for an aggressive when you end up on zero there or close to it? No. If there was a contemplation of vetting the entire 27,000, um, like I did last year, you know, but for the 30 last year and missed, and there was a contemplation of doing it, but I just didn’t.
I did. I, and I told you this, uh, you know, on, on the phone we talked privately. I felt like at that point, if I would have done that. I was not being a horseplayer anymore. I was being a gambler walking by the roulette table. I was just gambling and I didn’t feel good about that. And that’s why I decided not to do it very different than your opinion.
The year before on justify, when we thought we had the Manhattan all wrapped up, we thought, we thought quite incorrectly, spring quality still haunts me to this day. Hasn’t won a race since I’m pretty sure. So I don’t know that we were wrong. It just didn’t work out for us, saw that David that’s racing and these things happen where to begin the first race I was going to.
Yeah, go ahead. I watch how I do this. It’s like, it’s like a, it’s like a speed dating here. We’re gonna be 30 seconds about some cool stuff that happened earlier in the week. I will say a significant form. There’s a handicapping lesson to be learned. There is that she was, she showed a lot of reasons why they wanted to stretch her out, but she just wouldn’t relax.
And the stretched out races. And the cutback allowed her to run as fast as she wanted to early. And she still finished like a good horse. That was a very good handicapping lesson that I’m going to shuffle away into my library. And I sure wish they would take the same approach with another Philly by the name of newspaper record.
We won’t get stuck on that. And the other thing was Homer reek is very good. Yeah. Oh yeah. That was a very nice effort. And we’ve been both fans since the stateside debut and she did nothing to dampen our enthusiasm. I’d say. And Catalina cruiser is a very good horse as well. Yeah. Catalina cruiser is worth a mention for sure.
What do you think happens there next time we do have to loop back to newspaper records. Absolutely. I mean, I think the Catalina cruiser thing is interesting. Now, first thing I’ll say is if Catalina cruisers that good, how, how, how good was city of light? That’d be the first shout out we’ll give for, for burying that horse in the breeders cup, dirt mile.
Um, If the, a lot of people will say, and I’m sure this conversation will come up, that the rail was where you want it to be over the, over the two days, I’ve heard a lot of really smart people say that it’s overblown. And I’ve heard a really, a lot of really smart people say it was a grail. I think that we won’t know the answer to that until they start running back, whatever it was, Catalina cruiser was in the middle of the racetrack.
And that was definitely not where you wanted to be in. That is a move up in my opinion, for the horse. Very talented. I’d imagine they’ll come back out East for some fun stuff. Maybe at Saratoga, or there is some great ones. I believe sprinting. Um, at a Del Mar and maybe they’ll just keep, keep him out West.
And I’m proud that I didn’t call him over the last, uh, last 45 seconds. We’re going to be talking about this, the track bias thing in a minute. We’ll come back to it. I thought it was pretty clearly an inside track and maybe a little tilted to speed, but we’ll, we’ll go back there. The newspaper of record race.
I mean, we do need to talk about it once again, very unruly early I’m of two minds about it on one hand, it just seems like if they let her roll, maybe we could get back to some of the special quality she seemed to show last year. There’s also, of course, the irony that if Chad Brown only sends out one in the race, she wins by four and people are talking about, Oh, how she’s back.
If it wasn’t for a Canby or park being in the race and getting the job done in the end, rather easily by a length and a quarter. But you know, it was pointed out to me that. Yeah, it was Mike beer. I was talking to about this way. The pleasure of doing the Steve BIC show with on Friday made the excellent point that she, it could just be a, not trained on thing.
Cause she was doing the same antics early in the races last year. It’s not like she was relaxing and shutting off and finishing. She was running through that nonsense. So that does kind of make a case that maybe she’s just not the same. What’s your take on newspaper of record and what should happen with her?
Well, luckily enough, I got to practice this, this speech. I’m about to give on you last week when we talked about the race. And so hopefully it comes out better than it. Did I want to talk to you about it? This is a, this is a gas. This is the gas tank theory when it comes to these thoroughbreds, right? I believe that they all have a full tank of gas or whatever, just for the sake of this conversation.
When they start from the gate. Things throughout. If they’re, you know, being they’re being difficult in the paddock, they’re losing a little bit of gas there. When they, if they break poorly, they’re using a little gas with newspaper of record, all it, the six for a long pole, they went one 12 and two, right?
If, no matter what, in my opinion, she was going to be half empty at that point of the race, whether she opened up by six or whether she fought, IRAD like she did my thing is let her run, let her open up. She’ll still come home fast, like she did in this race, but you’ll have a five, six linked lead. But if you fight her.
When you get to that six for a long point of the race, she is already halfway empty. You fought her. And now you’ve got horses that are significantly closer to you than they would be. If you just would have let her do her thing. And to me, you’re going to get the same finish from her because you’re not wasting energy by fighting her.
And I’ll look, I could be completely wrong about that. But what they’ve tried in the last two races has not worked. My vote would be, which is not a vote that counts to let her roll, give her her head, let her, let her relax and do what it is that she wants to do. And when she gets to that halfway point, she’s still going to finish, but she’s going to have a six link lead rather than a two and a half length lead.
And then she gets into trouble. I don’t think that’s well said. And I do think a change of tactics is in order. We’ll have to see what they decide to do. Let’s return to that track bias question. You sort of sat on the fence. There I’m definitively the track was tilted inside. I mean, it was a, the rail was excellent.
I mean, you know, not necessarily the golden list of golden dictating the outcome of every race, but there was, it was more than sometimes we’ll say, okay, it was worth something, this was a bias to me. What did you think? Um, I believe it was, um, you know, uh, I, I think that one race that people look to that is they’re trying to use to, to argue against would be, uh, the, the, the Woody Stevens, her threes.
Right. But see, that’s what happens when these, when th when the rails get good of a rider overreaction from time to time. And it’s very common and it happens quite a bit where they just, everyone gets very aggressive, trying to get to that point. Um, and, and those types of things, uh, happen. So I think if you look at it as a whole, you will see horses that were down on the inside that were upgraded.
I think that if you look at the, uh, the Belmont and, you know, the, the, the ride and the trip that, um, that sir Winston God is a very good example of that, of just of getting to the inside. So I think it was good. I don’t think it was like the conveyor belt of all conveyor belts, the greatest inside of all time.
I think that you wanted to be down there and you didn’t want to be for wide. I think it’s very clear that that was the case. And the fortunate part about it is as we’ll find out in the next three to four, five weeks, if that was true or not, I think that even the midnight Bisou race is a good example of it just because I think it just shows how good she really is.
Yes. She was not. In front, but she spent plenty of time on the rail. And I just feel like, I mean, the market to me in that race was worth noting and, and kind of astounding. I talked about it with Blake, Jesse on the last show, the idea that the crowd was such a wise guy as to flip who on paper should have been favored for the race based on the way the track had been playing the two days.
But I mean, to me, that was just an instance of midnight. Bisou being that darn good. And it just unreal the record this Philly has at this point, when you’re looking at races a mile and a 16th and shorter, and I think it’s probably, people might think there’s some magic to that. There’s no question she can win, I think going the extra 16th, but boy, is she good around this configuration?
And just a really talented filly. Who’s been a lot of fun to watch these last couple of seasons. What did you think of midnight be Sue and come down? Well, I honestly thought that come dancing. The majority of the, the, the race was, was on the rail on the good rail that at that point you were. Be, um, eyes wide open to the idea that the rail was good.
She had come dancing had that freaky number, uh, two race or three races back now, two races back then. Um, and so I thought she was going to be really tough. Midnight VCU obviously was chasing right in behind. And when midnight Bisou came right out on about the quarter pole and swung around, like it was kind of over at that point.
She’s really good. And I, you know, she’s confused me a little bit. I thought for a long time she was going to be better cutting back. She’s undefeated at a mile and a 16th. I think the one turn mile and a 16th is perfect for her. Um, I still, I will cut in line, like cut right in front of Ryan Flanders if big run from him in the tournament too.
Absolutely. She shows up in the personal incident trying a mile and a quarter. I will try my hardest to beat her and I’ll probably try my hardest to beat her when Monomoy girl lines up in the gate next to her again. So. Um, I think she’s a really nice horse. I think she’s very talented. I, I, I just don’t completely trust her at the prices that she’s going to beat in the rest of the day.
That’s fair. That’s absolutely fair. And when I was talking with confidence about her stretching back out, I was also talking mile and an eighth. I would agree with you. You’d have to try to beat her at the mile and a quarter. And if we are going to stick with the hypothesis that the rail was good. Then there’s even more reason to be against her next time.
That’s right. Cause she still did spend plenty of time on the rail there. That, that that’s a fair point that you could downgrade both, uh, come dancing and midnight BC potentially. I don’t want to do too much downgrading of midnight BC, but I do take your point that at the end and the key thing you said was at the price, she’ll be, there might be some equity and looking elsewhere.
We’ll see where she shows up. Do we want to do, I think we should. It was a grade one. Let’s do a quick word on the Jaipur. This world of trouble, something else J K and word came down this week that it looks like they’re going to want to keep in training for next year as well. Curious to see what the targets are.
This one was just sort of laid out on the silver platter and basically one like a two to five shots. Should I didn’t have too much to add. I don’t see how this horse will ever lose. Really? No, he’s fast. He can run on dirt. He can run on turf. He opens up, he gets the lead. I love his rider. His trainer wins at a, at a high percentage.
They’re going to spot him and, you know, the turf sprints, you get beat because of trip and because your, your, your, your trip dependent or your distance, you know, you need distances. You know, he’ll win at five and a half. He won a grade one at seven on the dirt. He’ll win at six, he’ll win at five on the dirt.
He’ll win at seven and win at five and a half when six, you know what I mean? Like he, I don’t see how they beat them. Now. It’s going to be interesting when he runs six and a half down the Hill, um, at Santa Anita, because, you know, he’s never a lot of reasons, a lot of reasons that th that there’s so many reasons why that’s probably not going to happen.
And the other thing about that is, yeah, yeah. I kind of spoke out of turn off for and got that they have kind of like semi announced that they’re going to run it. It. Exactly. If they run, if they run it there at all. Exactly, exactly. A lot of confusion going in that direction. Um, and we should, I just think he’s gonna be tough for those who do Oh, no, we’ll pause on that for a second.
I, I suppose there’s been a, it’s been reported now that the, with the continued trouble going on out at Santa Anita, the breeders cup is meeting and Putin and they’ve, they’ve already sort of said that Churchill would be the plan B site. We’ll see what happens. Obviously we’re rooting for our friends at Santa Anita.
It’s better for the game if things could just work out, but at this point with all the trouble, I mean, you just have to say you couldn’t blame the breeders’ cup, whatever they decide. Would you agree with that? Yeah, peanut, I think that we, I think a lot of times, um, because we have so many friends in this game and we care so much about so many people that are, are indirectly involved, involved.
I think sometimes we kind of avoid certain topics. I think it’s fair. I think we owe it to the listeners to, to do what I’m going to do right now. Um, what w what would you do? And I’ll answer the question too. If you, if you were the czar, what would you do? About this situation, would you move it to Churchill?
I think at this point I would make the move. I don’t know how to do it politically, correct without totally throwing them under the bus and I’d feel bad about that, but I just feel like there’s just too much at stake and the way the crisis has been mismanaged out there in terms of what it, what needs to happen for it to be successful there, they’re just, there’s just too much at stake.
And as bad as the situation is in California, something that was unrelated to track condition, but horrible happening out there, you know, and equine fatality and the breeders cup. I mean, all of a sudden, it’s not just racing in California, that’s in jeopardy, it’s racing, uh, across the 50 States. It just be such a PR disaster in a situation that’s been handled so poorly from the beginning.
I wouldn’t blame them for a minute to move them. And if you said, Pete, you have to decide, I, I would, I. Pull the rip cord, man, I I’m, I would say if you asked me where to make your Breeder’s cup reservation, now I’d go ahead and look for places in and around Churchill. And at the same time, as I’m saying this, I hope I’m wrong.
And I hope there’s some reversal of fortune and fate that makes it seem like the right decision to stay the course and run at Santa Anita. But boy, man, I just know for me personally, and I think this goes for the industry, it’s just going to be days of breath holding and discomfort, and it might be time to move on and hope that they can regroup.
And, and you know, we get another breeders’ cup out there at some point, but I don’t think 2019 is the year. Is that fair? Yeah, I think it’s fair. I think that, like you mentioned the most recent, I don’t think, and maybe I could be me, maybe it was the one before that, but maybe the one of the last two, I think the most recent one was racetrack.
It was, uh, something different. Um, Here’s what I’ll say. And I used to tell my kids when I coached them all the time. If you show up to a meeting late on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and then on Friday, your house burned down and you show up late, I’m going to assume that you were late for the same reasons you were the first four days.
So in this game, when we had issues with the racetrack and there has been horrible things that have happened because of that, you don’t get the benefit of the doubt from onlookers, because they’re going to assume what happened the first five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10 times. So the other thing that I’ll say is on, I think it should go.
I think they should probably consider moving it to Churchill, but here’s why not, because I don’t believe that that, that people are working hard out there to try to fix the problem and then blah, blah, blah. I’m not, not because of that. It’s because we have an enemy right now and it’s PETA and I don’t know the numbers, but I’m fairly certain.
If I was a betting man, I happened to be one. That there is more, there’s more pita members in California than there are in Louisville. So you’re playing in there backyard. And the other thing is, is that if, and when things don’t go right there is, there is more TV stations in LA. More people read the, the Los Angeles times than read the courier journal.
And it’s just setting us up for, if something unfortunate happens, which we know will happen in this game from time to time, we’re doing it at the wrong place for those, those things that go down. And so I trust that the decision makers at the breeders’ cup. And, and the Stronach group will come together and make the decision that’s best for the game as a whole.
And, uh, and, and, and so w we’ll see what happens, but, um, I didn’t want to Dodge it. You know what I mean? I didn’t want to, that’s why I think more has happened that I feel like to talk about it before today. When I think our opinions have finally been formed on this a, you know, a week ago, even I would have just talked about what a dilemma it was with no right answer, but it’s coming to be where there is kind of a right answer here.
And I mean, not just for, just to talk it through, I mean, I’d almost want in an ideal world, it would almost be, I wish it could almost be like Santa Anita bowing out because of the political pressure in the state and all these things, as opposed to them getting like slapped by the previous cup. I don’t want it.
I hope it doesn’t come off like the industry abandoning California. Cause I’m concerned that that is how it will come off. But I just, you know, that’s not really what it’s about. It’s just about what’s for the greater good of the sport at this point. And I, and I think we both agree on what that is. I agree.
Let’s uh, you want to pivot to the corn, any corn, what a run. This was man berries. This field up close to fast. Fractions ends up coming home in a one 22 time form speed figure upgraded to a one 26, but in the process just becomes a favorite in a lot of future pools involving the, this division. JK only it was this.
I mean, I almost don’t believe it when I’m saying it, but it was only the second race. This is a freakish talent what’s going to happen next. Um, I’ve heard maybe coaching club, American Oaks on the stretch out. Um, I I’ve heard that, uh, avoiding, not avoiding you. Don’t get me wrong about that. Uh, going that route.
You don’t have to do the test with them. With, uh, with Kofi, which is don’t get me wrong. I don’t, I don’t think they’re afraid of antibody. No, but, but I just think you’re so stretch on if she’ll stretch, why not? She goes zap out of a distorted humor mayor. I don’t see a problem with getting a little bit extra ground and in a division that I think is kind of wanting right.
The, the, the, um, we, we all kind of know how I feel about Serengeti emperors, who I absolutely was having a panic attack. Oh, she right. Rail, rail, rail, rail. She ran great. I mean, you could downgrade because of the rail, certainly, but this was rail or no rail. It was a pretty, uh, to cut out those fractions at the stick around Sarah Getty, Empress ran huge.
You’re probably losing that bad. Uh, no, I don’t think so. I thought, I thought she was, I thought she was, uh, I thought she was definitely if, if we, if the, if we believe the rail was good, she was rail Aiden. Right? She was, but it’s, it’s counterbalanced when you run 43, nine, nine to the, to the half going, going a mile.
I mean, she certainly seems like one, who’s going to win another race because you know, guarana is going to is in the hands of Chad Brown and is going to be carefully handled. And there’ll be dances that guarana misses that Serengeti emperors will dance and she will, you know, pull off your pants and put them on the wall at PS one, if you know what I’m saying, I just need girl more on it to run.
And the coaching club, American Oaks, and a mile in the night and beat her there and then Serengeti and pres. She couldn’t win the Alabama on a bus pass you. I don’t this, I liked that you, but you’ve met Chad Brown, right? I mean, you’ve seen how he campaigns his horses. Do you, do you don’t, you don’t think that there’ll be, and then granted, Tom AME is also a guy sheet reader, bounce theory believer.
So maybe you’re right. Maybe they’ll both be so careful, but I’ve just got to think there’ll be a race somewhere along the line, maybe in Pennsylvania where you’ll see Serengeti, Empress, but not guarana and you’re going to get yours. Well, here’s what I will say. If you are keeping track of the bias, um, and your, and your, and you want to know if you’re trying to evaluate, you know, was it, or wasn’t it?
I think a horse that you can look at is gelatin, who was on the rail majority of the time at 46 to one and ran third eye. That’s just one to consider. If you’re trying to take a look at that, another horse that you need to Mark down. If we didn’t already give you enough heads up about how talented this one was, was Michael McCarthy’s CC, who was, why the entire time that’s your bias upgrade right there.
Yeah. Um, and, and I would imagine, we’ll see this Philly potentially back for, for the test. And she’s one that I would absolutely love to bet in that race against a four to five shot that Kofi might be. And so I, you know, I’d keep an eye on CC and I would imagine that Victor Espinosa does not make the trip back East if they come back.
Interesting. Are you you’re, you’re saying, but if you were in control, you wouldn’t have liked that you wouldn’t have appreciated the ride. Is that what you said? I mean, I’m being honest. I’d probably want a road Victor in the first place. Not cause I don’t, you know, he’s been on, he was, you know, he had all that big break and kind of got back going again.
But he, you know, when you, when you are in New York, you need to ride these guys. Whoever Jose Iran, Johnny Manny, Javier Joelle, you know, there’s Kendrick, even, you know, we ran into Kendrick and he was, you know, after one of the races and he was talking on, on Friday, we, we saw him Friday and he was telling, you know, he was joking.
He’s a hilarious person who never, we got to have on the show. Definitely a very deep Cajun accent. And he was saying that the guys in that room and he was pointing to the room, the jockeys room at Belmont are bears all of them. And if you can win races there, then you can win races anywhere. And I, I just, you know, whatever it is, what it is, kudos to Michael McCarthy for being, uh, being loyal to Victor.
Espinosas like I said, I don’t, I don’t imagine if CC comes back East and Victor will be sitting next to her. Uh, on the plane, that’s, that’s quite an image queen of bees and other. I’ll give a little bit of a bias upgrade too. Before we move on to a race, we’ve already kind of talked about the Woody Stevens.
This was the definitive race in the Belmont stakes challenge with the sort of double bottom up trifecta key that Blake Jesse did with hog Creek hustle and baracho, and he ended up cashing for the whole universe 18 to one over 17 to one over 15 to one was good to see Blake have his day in one of these contests.
I enjoyed that if you haven’t yet heard our conversation or my conversation with him from earlier in the week, I recommend you check it out. It was a lot of fun. I mean, definitely this just sort of set up great for hog Creek hustle, but I was super happy just cause this is a horse that, uh, the Matisse brothers in particular have been, uh, very avidly.
Touting, uh, on our show and elsewhere. And I think a lot of podcasts listeners caught a little bit of piece of this hog Creek hustle business. What are your thoughts on this race? I mean, we’ve kind of already covered it. Yeah. I mean, look, it, it did it, you know, it’s, it’s the, one of the, it’s one of the races that kind of makes the inside bias confusing to some, uh, I challenge you to watch the head on again and you’ll notice that nitrous meant that, uh, almost the, you know, first three quarters of the race on the rail, um, and strike silver was down there quite a bit too at 31 31 to one.
Yeah. The one speed who hung around inside was good, man. Yeah, exactly. You know, and, and honest mischief, I think maybe Javier got a little aggressive as I, if I own that horse and I train that horse and I was Javier as agent, I would have high-fived than when he came back, because that’s exactly what you’re supposed to do is be aware of an inside bias and go big fella.
And then somehow he ended up off the rail. Um, and so honest mischief, um, You know, I think he’s a really talented horse and I think he’s got a, uh, a Grady do one win in him at some point in his career. Very talented, lightly raised horse. So, um, complexity, I think being last as an interesting situation, uh, and you don’t see that very often from Chad talented horses that just run up the track.
Yeah. And I think it was an extreme situation that, that helped. I mean, it is interesting that he was inside, but the pace was such that, I mean, I think it just blew up in some of the horses in this field. This is the kind of room that will prevent me from ever. Using complexity in any race for the rest of his career, and just hope that his name, his connections, and his two year old form will continue to get wagering dollars.
And I’ll just always be trying to beat him. It wouldn’t surprise me if he went back to the bench, just cause you’re right for Chad Brown to run like that. Um, with potentially the benefit of the inside. It just suggests something when awry. So I’d be, I know what you’re saying though. Even with the layoff and the comeback almost guaranteed underlay.
And if he should, somehow that not be the last race in the forum cycle, you’d almost have to bet against let’s go on to the race that many considered the main event on Saturday JK, the met mile boy was materially. Good, but I gotta ask and you might have to get the silver wig out for this one was McKinsey best at the end of the day, did that trouble cost him the race as many have hypothesized.
I CA I still haven’t fully decided on this one, to be honest with you. Cause is such a freak that it’s, I can’t say definitively that he wouldn’t have kept finding and one anyway, but you can make a compelling case that McKinsey was at least as good. So I think there’s two different things we’re talking about here.
And there’s two questions who was best and who was going to win because who was going to win. I’ve heard a lot of people say you don’t know racing. If you think that totally wasn’t best, you don’t know racing. If you don’t think McKinsey was going to win. If he had a clear run, when he, if he could’ve got out, he was going to win the race.
There’s no doubt about it. That’s interesting. You say no, no doubt about it. Okay. However, I still think my totally was best. I just think the kids aren’t going to win that. You got to explain that because my totally was not on the rail. McKinsey spent a lot of time on the rail. Okay. That’s fair. That’s fair.
Trying to do what he did. He just got unlucky when they were trying to come out and he kind of got stuck in behind horses. McKinsey should have won the race, have won the race. If you would’ve got a cleaner trip, let totally was best. I like what you’re saying. I like where you’re going with that. I want to watch it again, actually with that in mind.
And how about thunder? Snow big run from him. I thought at, at a distance that did look a little too sharp, but this is a serious horse who as the distances get longer and the, and you get that extra turn in there. He’s got another big win he’s not done yet. Every time I see him run, I think about Duke Mateus.
Explain for those who don’t remember, you know, Duke was alive to him in, in, uh, in the Derby, I think for like one and a half million dollars in a pick six. Oh my Lord. Close snapped. Us articles snapped us limousine liberal one. Um, Divisadero, I think won the, the turf race and, and, and, and, um, Duke and Paul Paul made a number for thunder snow at Dubai that year.
And it was the best one. So Duke play the horse and, and he obviously had his bucking Bronco episode. So every time I see him run well, I think about Duke and that situation. So, um, yeah, I mean, look, it’s, he, he runs well, promises fulfilled ran well, too. This is a fun race. I guess the biggest disappointment to me was, was frenzy, fire, but tripping.
Yeah, you go with the bias excuse and, and you know, you forgive him for it. Um, materially and McKinsey are both exciting horses. Listen to our, in the ring pedigree podcast that we did. We recorded today. It’s already up, we talk in depth about Metolius and what’s next for him and him as a stallion and, and all these things.
I think that it’s a fun conversation, but, um, I’d like to see him take one more step on the stretch. He was that brilliant. I mean, he was phenomenal. Um, seems to relax. He’s tactical. I mean, who’s going to beat him in a mile and an eighth race. If he goes 23 and change 40, like, I mean, who’s going to beat him.
He’d have to stop. Right. I mean, with what we’ve seen, I mean, the distance can be the great equalizer, but you’d certainly like his chances. I presume you’re talking about a race like the Whitney. Yeah. The only horse that could beat him is the horse that he finished second to him. Right. You know, McKinsey, I think McKinsey could beat him.
I, uh, I thought McKinsey, I think McKenzie is the best older horse in training. We talked about, uh, we didn’t talk about this yet, Pete, but you and I, I saw your name on the list that you and I are both. Voting for this breeders’ cup, top 10 thing. Yeah. You know, and then I forgot to do it today and I feel like such a jerk.
So did you remember to get your ballot in? Yeah, absolutely. Look, I’m a government major. If someone asks me to vote. I do. Yeah. Yeah. I, I, I screwed that one up and I feel terrible. It’s this is the problem with doing 17 podcasts this week, but, uh, I will get on, I will get on that, uh, tip very soon. And McKinsey was your number one?
McKinsey was my number one. If I can, if I think I have it right here in front of I’ll just I’ll bang them to you real quick. McKinsey one thunder snow, two gift box three Catholic boy, four. Um, I, that was a typo. I did not do code of honor. I’d changed that maximum security going to Vera Tacitus game winner.
And I put Omaha beach in Tampa, just because if, and when he comes back, I still think he has the most impressive three-year-old race that we’ve seen. And I’d like to see him get back to the racialist. So I gave him a little nod in 10th place. You’re basically writing this is classic division. So nine furlongs and up on the dirt, that that’s why my totally in there.
That’s why I didn’t. Yeah, he wasn’t even listed on the thing. You could have added him, but, uh, until he does it, I don’t want to do it. Yeah. Let’s wait till he w we’ll wait until he wins the Whitney and then we’ll start putting him in there. I see a lot of people that did these top 10 lists. They do these, they do like four cheeky horses.
I’m not going to name anyone. We know who I’m talking about. I just don’t want to do that. I just want to. Put what I have in front of me and I’ll be smart later. I don’t need to be smart in a pole six months out, pick on a DeRosa like that. We had such a nice visit in the grand scale. We had such a nice visit in the grand grandstand.
He does just one of his traditions. He walks out into the grand stand to watch a race or two happen to be right in the section where I got, you know, I love to get those tickets way out there. You get to watch the turn. You have the screen. They’re actually, to me, the best of the grand stand seats are the ones all the way down happened to see him.
He came over, had a sandwich, had the glass of something I snuck in. It was very enjoyable. And now you pick on him on the podcast. I’m telling the, um, I want you to say that on the night of our best show with you, I want you to say you snuck in some drinks. You know what though? I had a drink on Friday, right?
Blame you I’m pretty sure it was a double, but still let’s talk. After, after Homeric one, I was, uh, I was heading back up to, we were hanging out and I had to get a, I had to get a, I had to get a double just to take the edge off and the lady says $30 and I said, that’s cool, but is it always left? You know?
And she’s like, no, just for the weekends, I was surprised at Homeric, you got the full even money. I would have taken four to five. I, that, that was actually a rare case of good tote value and where tote value was better than what was available for our friends. You know, I pay attention to the U S markets on, over in the UK.
Cause when I do the shows over there, those are the prices we go by. And yeah, I mean, consistently four to five throughout, you got evens in the end for your 4,000 or 8,000 in the contest, whatever you ended up betting. Well at, at four to five, two, I was fine with four to five, a nice little, usually those back flashes.
Aren’t good things, but in homerooms, it didn’t matter. And that’s the beauty of the Belmont, right? Belmont weekend, the festival as a whole, you bet, $4,000 at four to five year. Ain’t getting even money. It’s the other way around, but you know what? Call an audible here and go back to that race for a minute.
Cause I thought it was another one where it was just a really good conversation that you could have about trip handicapping and which horse actually ran better in that race of the, uh, it was a Chad Brown pair again, was it not? It was, it was I, and this is an interesting question and I know where you’re going with this, uh, competition of ideas was why Homeric was not.
She saved a lot of ground on the inside. Here’s here’s my here’s my final answer is that in competition ideas was from there back then, then Homeric. I feel like home, Marie didn’t get to run until like the last, I don’t know, five sixteenths where, where competition of ideas got to make her entire three-eights run, you know?
And, and I just feel like that impacted how that all went down. Like I just, because I don’t think homework was ever competition of ideas with ever getting by home, read the visually look like it. That that’s my, what I think the interesting point is it visually looked like Henry Katter measured and was never letting her by completely agree.
But it’s just one of those things where the subtle six extra lengths, the competition of ideas probably ran. If we were to look at the track as data, like doesn’t that, how can that not impact packed? It, it does. It does. But I also learn I’ve, I’ve tried to learn, I’ve been studying the idea that horses have horses are good because you know, some words are good because they have, they’ll go.
They’ll have a full three eights run in them where they can really go and, and, and, and, and, and kind of give you a full speed, three eights, but w and I think the whole Maricka is that type of horse. She’ll give you a full three, eight, she got so much stamina, but when you only allow her to run a quarter or an eighth, you don’t get, she doesn’t get the fully extend.
And she probably had energy left at the end that if she would have been allowed to run, she would have been able to use that energy to expand upon her lead. I absolutely buy it because that’s certainly what it looked like visually. And, um, I’m going to, I’m going to accept it, but I think we can both agree that competition of ideas is also really good.
And she’s not far behind. I mean, she’s, yeah, she’s behind, but she’s not far behind. And I wouldn’t really even argue with anybody who said, given the ground loss, she was best, but at my gut, you made me pick one way or the other. I’ll go with you. I’ll stick with you and are in our little, even money. Poke there.
The other thing I’ll tell you is. Is if you’re new to this game or you’re, you’ve been in the game involved for awhile that you’re more of a television pan angle guy or a hangout on the, in the backyard guy or wherever you are. If you want do a fun experiment, sit at the eighth pole or between the quarter pole and the eighth pole of a racetrack and call the winner when they come by you and you’ll get it right.
So often when you’re looking at it live right there in front of you, you can tell who’s traveling better and you can tell who the winner is. At that point of the race, you just, it’s very hard to tell on the pan. Amazing. It it’s, it’s something about the moment I feel like it’s the momentum. Somehow when you’re seeing in three dimensions, you can see the physical momentum and it’s certainly not, you know, it’s not every time, but there are some times where you’re sure and it’ll be, there’ll be a neck in it at the wire, but you knew from the top of the lane and it’s, it’s, I’ve never been able to explain it, but I completely agree with you, you, it that’s a real, it’s exactly what happened to me.
I watched the race live and I thought to myself, she’s not losing. I think I walked away when they ran by me. And then I watched the race again. You know what, one of my favorite things to do, obviously when you’re like flying back from somewhere. So I just like watch them all again at the airport and I watched it again and I was like, Oh my God, that was so much closer than I thought it was.
All right. We’re going to move away from this Chad Brown Exacta on Friday JK cause now we’ve got a Chad Brown trifecta to talk about from the Manhattan. And in other news, the sun’s going to set in the West tomorrow, bricks and mortar gets the job done and it does so very impressively. This is a serious race horse man.
Absolutely. He really is. Um, another really fun thing if you haven’t seen it. TVG and Scott Hazelton have been doing this thing where they like ambush all the jockeys. When they’re coming back at the big races and get like little 32nd soundbites. It’s so much fun. Um, and this is one of the reasons they did it for it.
So I’m trying to find that on Twitter, look, look at Scott’s or TBGs feed, or maybe it’s Scott’s feed. But, um, he taught me, you know, every writer kind of talks about their trip. Now I was concerned about bricks and mortar getting a mile and a quarter cause he hadn’t done it yet. Not that I didn’t think he could.
I just, he hadn’t done it yet. So I felt like there was an opportunity. Look, I, as a guy who’s singled more, three to five shots. That’s true. That’s factually correct. Part of the punishment, the punishment of getting beat on those horses is you have to continuously ask yourself, what did you miss? And this is the kind of thing you miss bricks and mortar, bricks, and mortar.
He’s the best he’s won so much money. He’s the best. He’s the best chat brownies, three to five. You can’t lose. And then some horse beats you and you look back at the PPS and you’re like, I’m such an idiot. This horse never even gone a mile and a quarter, right? So because of that, I kind of looked for other horses.
Now, the same conversation we had about Homer reek and competition of ideas is probably the same conversation we’re meant to have here because I’ve heard a handful of smart people say that they would have loved to have seen Robert Bruce get a cleaner trip to Bronwyn. When I saw the race back, I don’t think Robert Bruce was ever going to beat him.
It might’ve been closer, but I don’t think he was ever, what was the issue in the trip? I remember he didn’t break very well. Robert peruse, did he have, I think it was more in the stretch, like right when you’re looking for horses to make runs. Right. And I think Nick Tamra has said this to me. We talked about it.
It’s where the trouble happened is why everyone got worked up because where the trouble happened is like right. When you’re looking for horses to make their run, you know what I mean? Whether you’re, Oh, he has some trouble, but I don’t think it was significant enough that it cost him beating bricks and mortar because at the 16th pole, bricks and mortar was not a loser.
Um, to me, Christina, Helmers cashed her show bet on raging bull and the square eight to one to round out the all Chad Brown trifecta. The other Helmers ended was zero. So that’s cool. Oh my goodness. Did you see how I threw Benny under the bus? Uh, accidentally I’ve I’ve since deleted the tweet because too many people were taking it the wrong way, but he just, cause I, you know, I made a cheeky comment when it was, when it was the leaderboard of, it was basically the top 10 was either someone who’d like been in my kitchen, eating a meal at my table, played, played and, or babysat my daughter or one of these dopes who made a six hour, uh, the world’s most boring YouTube video about me.
So I made some comment about, you know, the, this, this leaderboard shaping up as a battle between good Knievel and then Benny, just following up on that. Said. Oh yeah. Isn’t it funny that the, that, that all your, all your people ended up in the top 10 and the troublemakers ended up on zero, but then I realized like the way, especially the way that I phrased it in the tweet was bad.
Cause it was just like impugning, everybody who landed on zero. And then all of a sudden I realized, Oh man, I’m throwing accidental shade on Garrett schema and Tony Joe, two of my favorite people on earth, not to mention the other 16 fantastic players who I’m friendly with, who played correctly and ended on zero.
So I just deleted the thing. But just to clarify, only talking about a three dopes, everybody else’s cool.
I think one of the dopes doesn’t even play anymore. It’s like, he’s like in protest, it’s like the equivalent of the horseplayer equivalent of holding his breath until he turns blue. I’m not sure what he’s still, he’s still out here trying to change rules in his favor. I’ve heard some stories. Yeah. Let’s change it to a happier topic.
You mentioned Scott Hazelton before, you know, Scott has a long and illustrious resume in the game of thoroughbred racing. He has a new item he can add to it after this week. Do you know what I’m talking about? No PTF wardrobe consultant. He was coaching me up on how to create the cool array of outfits for Royal Ascot.
He’s a renowned as one of the most, if not the most fashionably dressed of all the pundits and ask it. So he, he coached me up. I’m following his advice and I’ve got a few nice ensembles to break out next week. So I don’t embarrass myself on the sky sports racing Ascott coverage. You got the hat and all that PTO.
I have a hat. I’m not sure if the crown of it is high enough. It’s like it is the Gordon brothers version of a top hat. And it’s really cool. So I explained to them, I got the hat. If it doesn’t pass muster, I’m going to somehow figure out if it’s, if it’s regulation. Cause you know, they get real serious about this stuff there.
I may end up having to return that hat and buying another hat, but the, this is a really great looking hat and the ones over there are like even more expensive. I’m going to try to get this one in off the goalpost. We’ll see. But, uh, that wasn’t, uh, Scott didn’t advise me on that. He told me to just get a used hat.
That’s my plan B. So I’ve got that in the, in the offing and I’ve got my I’m going to go my Saturday morning. This is ridiculous, but my Saturday morning, I’m just going to go get measured for the morning suit. The, the, the tails and the, the. Pants, et cetera. And I’m just going to go ahead and buy them.
Cause I need them. It’s basically going to come out the same cost. This was part of Scott’s advice, especially if you know you’re going back, which I’m pretty sure I’m going back next year. So I’m just gonna go ahead and buy the thing. I dig it. I think it makes sense. I, I, uh, I don’t know if a top hat is going to fit.
Uh, when I go my hair, when I go next year, I’m very curious to see you. I mean, this is a man folks, you know, I mean, he, he, he had his contract at Fox changed, so he didn’t have to wear a sport coat. Now he’s going to wear a, a tails and a top hat. This is, this is going to be watching him, sweat in this outfit is going to be entertaining.
You know, what’s funny is I just realized I can kind of pull this off. I wanted to come on Monday. There’s they don’t run Monday or you mean fly Monday? I fly Monday. I stayed Tuesday. I come back Wednesday. I mean, I can do it. Tuesday’s the best day of the whole thing. You got me a ticket. Oh, if you’re serious and you’re definitely going to come, I will see what I can do about getting you in.
Let me look at flights. It’s gotta be, it’s gotta be just a no brainer, easy flight, no issues, straightforward. First-class both ways. Standby, standby. It’s free. Do it. And I know it’s close to Heathrow too, you know? I mean, it’s Southwest, uh, you know, Southwest Trainline, you’re not, you’re not far at all from Heathrow.
So if I’m not, if you’ll notice, you’ll, you’ll tell, you’ll be able to tell, uh, in the tone of my voice, when we talk about the Belmont stakes, next next, after I look at these flights on this computer in front of me, if I am a. If I’m happy or not. My favorite part about this show is conversations. And I think it’s really been the last, really the last 40 minutes of the show.
So classic, like just conversation we would have had anyway. And we’re just getting to record it and release it as a podcast and call it our job. Great. Is that it’s fun. It is fun. And we, and we got FaceTime audio this time around, so it’s, it’s, it’s, we’re not going to, I don’t sound like a robot and nobody else knows that because I can edit when that happens.
I can edit it to hide it from the crowd usually, but the great news is I’m. I mean, I don’t even have one edit listed for this whole show. We’re going to basically be able to run and gun, which makes me a very happy man. All right. We have so much left to do on the show. It’s kind of crazy, but obviously this is one of the most important pieces of all.
The Belmont stakes for me, a tale of two trips, sir, Winston, what a great ride by Joel Rosario take nothing away from the horse. He was obviously better than I thought he was. He ran a great race. He got the job done, but there is zero doubt in my mind that Tacitus was best. And I feel robbed out of the thousands.
I was meant to win when tacit has crossed the line first, as well as the fact that, you know, this was a horse I picked everywhere and it would have been fun to be able to claim the winner. When you do this punditry stuff, there are some things, some wins that are worth more than money. And when you can give out a horse to a lot of people and have been talking about them since.
Basically the day after the Derby on the final Furlong podcast. When I told people over there to start betting them, it would’ve been nice. If he could have got the job done, I believe the track was against him. I do not blame Jose Ortiz. Most of the time that trip works out absolutely fine at Belmont.
This was, that’s another important thing about this biases. That’s one of the tracks where usually you can be four wide coming from home for whatever reason, something about the banking, the configuration grandma’s, doesn’t always matter at Belmont. It did on this day. It costs tasks. It’s the wind for me, but perhaps tomorrow, Cassie trains, two of the three horses that win triple crown races.
And can’t exactly take anything away from him. Oh, and one more data point for the bias. I’ll just say the name, Joe. Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. Um, okay. I got like 18 things to say first is, um, when you’re in Europe and you’re, if I’ll come with you, if I have to, we got to go somewhere and find a price on task.
That’s the win, the Travers. That’s the first thing. The second thing is, um, in those Scott Hazleton pieces that I had mentioned, Jose said something very interesting about war of will. He said if Tyler would have had more horse and was, and what a went on with it, I think he would have kept sir Winston on the rail.
And I would have been a winner. I think it’s very interesting, like a very interesting idea, and it doesn’t necessarily change anything it’s racing. And I’m not saying that it matters, but it’s just an interesting alternative ending to the race, right? If war of will, would have gone on with it, he probably would have made it harder for Joelle to get out and involved.
Are you buying the idea that war of will was fouled in this race by the way? No, I’m not either. But here’s the problem though, right? Tyler talks about that, but Tyler got fouled on a Cassie horse by a CAHSI horse. If he got fouled claim, foul on a winner and get him taken down and let Tacitus win while war will ran night.
Yeah. I mean, Hey, if he was, if he wasn’t claiming and he wasn’t claiming in the Derby, no somebody else cut him off. You might’ve changed this too. Yeah, I got interfered with no merely, but I mean, I’ve heard people talk about it. Like it was even in the same zip code as the Derby incident, it just Creek hustle was worse.
And we should talk about hog Creek hustle just because it plays into all this category. One category, two stuff we’ve been talking about, but did you have, I’m sure you have more thoughts on the Belmont, but I just made a note to myself to go back to hog Creek hustle when we’re done. Yeah, that’s fine. Um, Tacitus.
Okay. So Tacitus Jovia is proof of an inside bias. Um, so our Winston’s proof of an inside bias, um, spin off didn’t really have an excuse, except that he was outside. I don’t really want him master fencer was a punchline for a lot of people and he all the entire triple crown is a punchline of jokes and he, and the two races he ran and he proved that he deserved to be there.
And the last thought is that on the Fox show on Sunday, I was lucky enough in the IMB to listen to Gary Stevens. Kind of break down the race and talk about it. And he said, I walked the race about 10 times. If Jose knew the rail was a conveyor belt, he had zero opportunity to get there. Right. There was never a world in which he was going to get to the rail, even if he tried his hardest.
To get there. He was he supposed to do. I think that’s all fair. And that’s how I saw it. I wasn’t, it wasn’t cussing him. It just was circumstance conspired against us and prevented a nice car. There’s bugs mugs agrees to order. She she’s been rattling wild up. She’s been, it’s been good. You know, she had her brief protest when we left the RF.
She, she, for some reason didn’t like that and, and stayed away for a little while, but she’s been back and you can hear, you can hear her hear rattling or chain, I think, yeah, she’s taken this medication. It makes her very thirsty. She, she also probably just wants a bowl of water, but mugs, I got bad news for you.
We’re going to handicap about 17 races before this podcast is over and we still have to go back to the hog Creek hustle, non DQ, which for me, this was an instance where it was a foul. I do believe it was a foul, but this was a horse that. It was going so much the better. I just can’t imagine the world in which the other horse who was mind control, if I’m remembering that right.
It was my, he, he basically walked mine control and then shut them off. And for me, the perfect solution here is you give days and you leave the result. I understand why people are upset though, because under category two, the idea that, you know, Mind control could have finished a couple of places better.
It’s hard to argue with. I mean, it’s an exact reason for me. Why the CA under category one rules, it, it would have been much clearer. I thought in real life, it was a 50 50. When I finally saw it. I thought it was a 50 50 that it was coming down. And apparently according to Blake, Jesse, who might’ve had some insight info on this, John Velasquez in that post race interview said that he didn’t have horse left.
And that is part of the reason why w with that information, it does make more sense that it would have been left alone. What did you think was going to happen? Do you think the right thing happened and give us a thought on where your brain is at with the whole category one versus two thing? Um, what did I think was going to happen?
Uh, are you, you needed hot Creek hustle, so you assumed you were coming down? Yeah, I was, uh, it was at a wedding, so, and they were praying when I was watching the race and I felt I should put it. It apparently worked. Maybe we should pray a little bit more often. Sweating lights were on me. I was in the front row.
Um, yeah, you know, I, I, um, I thought he was gonna come down. Um, I think that what we’ve had to, what we’ve been forced to, to deal with over the last five weeks, uh, I thought he was going to come down. He, he interfered with mind control. I, you know, I don’t think he cost mine control a, uh, a placing and I think he was the best horse.
So all of those things work out. Right. Um, I thought he was coming down, um, would have come down,
um, No. Well, based on the rules, yes. Based on the world, in which I’d like to live in. No. Interesting. Yeah. We cannot play God and assume that mind control was not going to get a different placing look. I know he was stopping and anyone who’s ever watched a horse race knew he was stopping, but maybe he runs fourth or fifth.
I don’t know. I don’t know how far checks go. I don’t know. Fargo checks going to grade one. I don’t know where to go to six plays, seven plays. I don’t know how far they go to get a check. So, um, I look, I’m fine with, obviously I’m fine with the result, but I, you know, I got it. The, the, the initiative that thoroughbred, okay.
The foundation is pushing and Pat Cummings and Craig Berneke and all of the people on that board, um, this conversation wouldn’t even be a situation because you just judge the fact that, that the, uh, that it did not. He was the best horse. It, it did not, uh, it did not, um, impact the final four or five horses winning then either need to come down, but it’s just, that’s the problem.
Right. And I don’t want to get on that. That’s the problem. It’s convoluted. That’s why it has to change because it’s confusing. It’s different everywhere else. And that’s why it needs to be adjusted. Yeah. Look, I’m okay with the U S having its own set of rules, but it’s not because they do it this way elsewhere.
That’s not the reason. I just think it limits the amount of human error and makes it more fair for the betters. And somebody could say, well, What you just need to do is have every steward train so well that they don’t make mistakes in there. They’re consistent. They explain themselves and, and get the data well, you know what, good luck with that.
So, I mean, in the real world, the best solution is to make it a more straightforward process. That’s what’s best for, uh, that’s what’s best for the, the, the betters and the money that we put through the windows. That’s what I want to see in this instance. And again, it can still be done as a safer sport by adjudicating, after the fact under, you know, the cold light of day, instead of the heat heat of the moment.
If that makes any sense, anyway, not find that we’ve got handicapping to do. And we’re going to start at Belmont park on Saturday with the late pick five. The first race is a New York bred allowance in this pick five. It goes as the sixth. I like to draw for number seven over time, Olivia. Gives her options of flow upgrade out of the last race.
And it didn’t seem to me, like there was much pace in here over time. Olivia for me, do you have a quick thought on this one or when I first looked at it, please, I thought when the shake was one that I was very interested with, uh, he had Manny Frankel last time, Dermot Magnan we’ve talked about him on the show previously.
I lost a little confidence when Dermot tried to get cheeky and sneak one in a DOL situation. Um, and then, and then my eyes went to passport to victory. I liked his back races. But then the problem comes again with the sneakiness of trying to, to get one over, um, on the MTO list. Those two seem like the most likely winners, but I ended up landing on she’s a super freak.
I’d probably use all three of them when it comes to a pick five. I just thought that the race at Saratoga for she’s a super frequent, she was a two year old that she won by 10. Um, and then she had a really bad race at, at, uh, at finger lakes where she got the break. After that she comes back, catches a wet, fast surface with a really crazy trip.
And, uh, I think she is the most likely winner of this race. And that will be the horse that I pressed the most in here, just off of that back form and the excuses and the two races that don’t look nearly as attractive as that one. Let’s move on to Ray seven. We move on to the turf. I’m going to go with Morrison in here off the layoff for Joe Sharp, uh, very strong with these types of layoff types.
I like the fact that Morrison is a forward runner who fits on form and figures. We’ll see if he can light a fire in Ray seven at Belmont on Saturday night. A lot of fires is that, that immune Dick joke. . Yeah. Well, look, Doris, have you heard of the tourists? Yeah, well, they had the guys, the guys got to first and the two names, I don’t know.
I know, I know JZ, no kind of hold Quavo. What was that? The random, the random band that you mentioned the other day with the, uh, the, the hurricane song. I enjoyed that one. The LA was some sort of LA hip hop band that you misidentified as being from Texas. What were they called? Oh my gosh. I couldn’t even tell you right now.
Um, uh, so here’s a couple of situations show up here. Uh, this extraordinary Jerry randoms, a couple of really fast races, um, out in, in California, and then shows up in Todd Pletcher his barn. Um, Ran well off the turf and then comes back to the turf. I think Todd’s got this race wrapped up. Obviously Chad shows up here, but already getting my mind ready for the chat and Todd Zig and zag.
When we get over to Saratoga, I need Opry and extraordinary Barry, and I’m going to let, uh, prognostication beat me in this spot. I went off three random, the breeders’ cup, juvenile turf. Extraordinary. Jerry’s got the fast numbers for Doug O’Neill out on the West coast shows up here runs well, and the off the turf race gets back on the turf.
Those are the two that I need, uh, in the eighth race claimer on the turf $40,000 level of trainer. We talk about all the time on the show. Mike maker has Thomond park, who I thought ran pretty darn well, last time, given the horrendous break and getting back into the race at the pace call ended up being a little flat late, but I think that’s acceptable.
I’m willing to give this one another, try back very quick for Mike maker. Yeah. I liked that horse too. Um, that always caught my attention. Danny Gargan always, uh, you know, has me interested in when Kendrick shows up on a horse and a turf race. I always know that these, these, these payslips New York turf races, I know Kendrick’s on always kind of get me in the race a little bit and could always find himself.
In an advantageous position while the rest of them are back there, a lolly gagging around. I thought I thought he was, um, was very interesting. And, um, like I said, I agree with the maker race. I thought the last race was a little bit sneaky. You know, he missed the break and, uh, and got back in the mix and, and ran pretty good.
And I like those races when they run six beaten three, because people see the six and they kind of dismiss it. You could always get a little bit of a better price on a horse like that. The other horse that I’ll mention, I think is honorable ear hero for Gary Contessa gets high rad had I read last time, ran a pretty good number last time in the same race that Thor, Thornton park and the maker horse.
So he mentioned earlier, I like using those three horses in the spot. And, uh, there’s one other horse in here that I thought was going to be, try and turf for the first time. Lucky bet was a looking at lucky. I know how much our friend Marshall Graham likes to looking at Lucky’s and, uh, being at a smart strike.
There’s an opportunity for that horse to, uh, appreciate. The grass first off the claim switching over to that surface. Oh, for sure. All right. Let’s go to the steak goes as the ninth, the dancing Renee. I didn’t have anything too clever in here. Pause for the, cause I thought looked like would get a forward trip, should be the best of the speed I think.
And I just thought had the best overall form I was going to keep it simple. Yeah. You know, depending on your, your budget, your situation, I think there’s two single double horses in this spot. Um, I really like holiday disguise and I also like pause for the cause. I don’t know exactly which one I would, uh, I would single out or if there are two singable horses, aren’t there.
Zero. Well, that’s the thing, right? Is if there’s two single double horses and you can’t separate them, then you have a coin flip to add an unbelievable amount of equity. Your ticket is half the price, and there’s an opportunity to, to really juice it up a little bit. And so one of those two, if I had to pick one, when I pick holiday disguise, I’m glad I’m not calling this race because midnight disguises and here as well, that’s going to be very tricky.
Um, but I would go with holiday holiday disguise. You ran in the vagrancy last time again against heaven has my Nikki and, uh, you know, was wide all the way around there. So that would be my top choice, but possibly calls makes sense as well. Move on to the nightcap, the race we’re going to get paid. We’ve talked about the trainer.
I’m going to pick an awful lot on this show. I like my almond Jenna here, JK improving, fits at the level. Just looks like one of these horses that it’s a matter of time before the breakthrough and in the capable hands of George Weaver. How do you see it? Fair enough. Yeah. Um, here’s what I’ll say is, is, is if you look at, uh, my arm and Gina, she was 2.3 to one last time, uh, excuse me.
He was 2.3 to one last time. And, and then you, you look down one more to Bunyan’s Zach’s who was the exact same price, exact price, and was way up the track. Now that horse got an awful figure and the race prior to that got a nice figure. At at, uh, you know, as, almost as the favorite. So for me, what I look over to the left to try to identify what that is about.
And there was, there were soft ground at Belmont that day. I’m going to give Bunyan’s ax. Another chance I’ll use both of them, but I I’m also gonna use Bunyan’s acts that that horse will run back to the Goldstream race, where, um, where he was second that day. And I’m going to just say that it was the soft ground.
That was the problem for him. And let’s see if those two can help us get out. I hate these races are so hard for me. Um, they’re very, very challenging. These 40 claimers to end these sequences. They’re always full fields and it all depends a lot on trip, but those are two horses I like to make. Where are you working this weekend?
Are you going to be part of this Churchill card on Saturday night? I won’t be part of it Saturday night. It’s, you know, it’s, it’s uh, because it’s going to be on NBC. I think it’s NBC. Oh, I sports. The fosters are winning you’re in, I believe the, the, the Florida Lee is a winning and you’re in. Um, so yeah, we’ve got five graded stakes.
I know you’ve looked at the card and I know you have some strong opinions. I haven’t looked enough. I’ll chime in if I see anything worth Chi-Ming in on, but I basically just want to get your very quick thoughts on these five graded stakes races. And then we’re going to bring in our buddy Jason beam to talk about stakes racing at Monmouth to wrap things up.
But for your final portion of the show, JK, let’s start with the grade three. Matt wins stakes Saturday night at Churchill eight Oh three Eastern time. We’ve we talked about it on the Fox show. Um, the other day on, on, I think on Sunday, the Louisiana three-year-old form it very strongly. Paul Mattise tweeted something about it as well.
We’ve got frolic Moore who won on Sunday at, uh, at Churchill. And, and, and that horse was a three-year old down in, in Louisiana. We’ve got hog Creek hussle who, who went on to win the Woody Stevens. Mr. Money. Who’s in this race who won the Pat day mile. We’ve got Willow of who won the Preakness. We’ve got, uh, Owen Dale who won the Lexington, ran well in the Preakness.
That form is very, very strong and I’m going to stick with it. I think Mr. Money is the closest thing to a lock you can get. I love him in this spot. I just think he’s better. His race that he ran the pack. They mild berries. This field. It’s an extra 16th of a mile. He will have no issues with that. He’s run well going a mile and a 16th before he broke his maiden there.
I love Mr. Money. The pick five. I’m very sure. Well, we’ll start here and end, um, prior to the Arabian race. So I’m hopeful that I can single Mr. Money to start. All right. Strong opinion there. I like it. Let’s move on to the grade two wise, Dan, I’m willing to give inspector Lindley. Another shot off the, uh, the race on the Preakness undercard to ultra impressive Catholic boy.
What did you think about this one? These horses all look the same to me. Um, I’m spreading in here because I’m going to give you two more singles and the sequence. Uh, I’m gonna use horses like first Primero. I’m going to use holiday stone. I’m going to use cm reap it’s in the post inspector, Lindley March the arch admission office.
I can keep going. I, this is just a spread to me. It’s who’s going to get the best trip. It’s a full field. There’s no standouts here. I’m going to spread as much as I can in this spot, because like I said, I’m going to be skinny everywhere else. At first, I was disappointed when we didn’t see a late lining up on the Belmont undercard, but when you see how this race comes up and how she looks against this competition, I get it.
And I think LA is going to be very, very tough to down. What is your thought in the Florida league? Uh, late for me here, look, her last two races were, or, or not as impressive as I think the world expected from the horse that when we started this year, we thought would be the best older mayor in the country.
Um, she showed up in the Azeri random midnight, be soon was beaten a link that was finishing well at a mile and a 16th that was off a 200 day layoff. Then she goes to the Apple blossom, gets beat by Sue again, also going a mile and a 16th. That was 62 days ago. She’s had six, five works at Churchill.
They’ve been pointing for this race. She gets a mile and an eighth. I think she’ll be aggressively written forwardly place. She’s got, she’ll have a target and she’s a Julie, I think a late we’ll get it done in this spot. I’ll be singling here as well. All right. On to the grade to Stephen Foster gift box, man, his numbers look really, really good, but we have some old pals in this race, especially the one on the outside where the most famous horses in podcast history.
Yoshida you tease that? You’ve got another single, is it gift box it’s it’s it’s not. Um, I’m going to spread a little bit here. I think gift box is the most likely winner. I had them third, I think on my breeders’ cup classic ratings that we talked about earlier in the show, I’m going to use gift box the most I’m going to use Yoshida because I’ve signed a contract to do so.
And I’m gonna use seeking the soul who I was completely against seeking the soul in the alley Sheba. Off the 34 day break. Since the Dubai world cup now gets 43 days. These connections, Dallas Stewart, Charles 50, remember a Philly by the name of forever and bridal. They gave her like years break. If this horse needed a break, they’d give the horse a break, right?
He clearly has got his feet back underneath them. Again, he didn’t run terribly in the alley Sheba considering the situations he’s been working well. Uh, if you look, you ran the bullet. Last time you went 59 and to a best of 15, he’s been working at Churchill. He had a bullet Merck for that going six only at a three horses.
I think that he’s the one you want to consider just in case it falls apart time form us suggest the pace could be a little bit quick. Those are the only three I need seeking the soul gift box. Cheetah. I really liked seeking the soul as a vertical key, especially second and third, because of the pace looks fast.
I see a good trip happening. We know this one’s going to be finishing and you made a note about the workout as well, very down with that idea of most of the money going through seeking the soul and just keying with the other logicals in here. And I don’t know, I don’t know who else I’d throw in that mix, but I’d certainly have the ones you mentioned on top and seeking the soul in second and third.
I just want a quick thought from you on King Zachary before we move on, is this a horse to be taken seriously in this spot? I mean, I don’t, I’m not crazy about that allowance place on you. They are all coming out of, um, thirst of life was in there as well. American Anthem. I don’t, I believe came back and ran poorly in California.
It could be wrong about that, but I’m pretty sure he did. Yeah, he ran fourth. Um, No, it just doesn’t move me. Nothing in that race, like moves me. I look at the name and a lot of them, I recognize my boy, Jack and King Zachary. Sure. American Anthem and thirst for life. I just think they’re running into some barriers here with gift box, who, who has beaten a horse that I think is, is probably the best older horse and McKinsey going a mile and a quarter.
His races have been impressive. I just don’t see how that horse will get the job done. He gets these couldn’t talk anyone off of using or including. Uh, but I’m just not sure. Yeah. I’m sort of thinking of a Yoshida gift box, especially pressed with gift box on top. Maybe even at all in the middle graded to how the horses are being bet with seeking the soul in third and then maybe flipping it.
But you know, not, not, it wouldn’t cost much money using SoFi combinations to get some serious coverage. But anyway, those are my thoughts. There let’s move on to the regret. I think we’re both going to pick the same horse in here and I think it’s, . It’s kind of why I love the sequence so much. Um, you know, one of the things that you’ll notice with horses like this is that because it was a slow pace.
Last time when she finally got her maiden broken, um, at Belmont the figures, aren’t always that fast time for them. Craig, McCalsky projected the re you know, I don’t want to say projected the race, but he found a way to get the number to be a little bit higher, one Oh eight time form us, which is a. That’s a big upgrade off of the closing into the blue.
I mean the raw number is a 97 translates to about a 77 buyer. So it’s not that he, you know, he he’s following his methodology, but he’s giving the extra credit the way he does for those, you know, the, the 58 first sort of understands, okay. The final time translated to a figure, isn’t going to be representative of the ability of one who ran the race that Veronica did.
So I, he’s not like he’s messing with the numbers and I think he’s being very true to his methodology. And I think this is one of the reasons I like time for him, us that tells a great story to me. Right. And I agree. And one of the reasons I think it’s a great bedding opportunity is because the buyer speed figure, which we all know is the most influential item when it comes to how the, uh, public bets princess carat, princess of Carolina has an 80 of Rinka had an 81.
Um, you can also look at horses like Belle Laura, who had an 82 previously hungry kitten ran a 75 hard legacy, ran a 77, um, Delta’s kingdom and a 74 winter sunset renter, 81. There’s so many horses that are so close that the public is not going to treat this horse. Like I am going to treat this horse and I think she is going to absolutely Gallup.
And I’m very excited. She’s going to be in a dark pool considering the fact that she’s the last leg of the pick five, there’ll be the will pays the lead people on. And that, that the, the lover in this spot, she’s the reason I love the sequence so much. I’m going to try to crush this thing as hard as I can.
I think she’s a very, like, I love it though. I’m going to have to work on your gambling jargon, a dark pool and a blind pool are not the same thing. JK w and now we should define them for people. I I you’re right. Dark pool is a dark pool. Is, is we have a friend that I know a person that’s in a dark, a dark pool is betting with a bookie.
So the money never touches the pool, but that person will pay you out according to what the track pays. And so essentially you can hammer it without affecting the odds and it’s, and sometimes when more than that was in the actual live pool, if you have the right relationship, I mean, this is, we’re not condoning this behavior by the way, just explaining the gambling jargon and go ahead and define the blinds.
Blind pool is, is the, you know, the exact, uh, the double. Those are all, uh, I guess whatever the opposite of blind is, um, pulls you can see into bullshit, see into exactly. And, and, uh, the, the, you know, pick threes, trifectas, pick fours, you don’t know what it’s going to pay. You have no idea what it’s going to pay because there’s legs that have not been involved in the calculation.
No, probable, in other words, you can’t, you can’t see the problem. Even the trifecta, which is technically a blind pool, you can still model that pretty well between figure. In other words, like figure out what it’s going to pay by looking at the exact, uh, and then either show money or the wind price. You can get a pretty good idea.
Last leg of a pick three, not so much. All you got is the morning line. If you can find one to pick on, if you can find a situation like this, where you just are very confident that Veronica is going to stand above the field, but we’re guessing the morning line, which we don’t have as we’re doing this, isn’t going to reflect what we perceive as her superiority.
These are horses, you can build your sequences around, you find them, and you sort of build backwards for you. You think there’s going to be an all stakes pick five J K. And that’s going to be your main bet, but I’d also say about like the pick three with Veronica in the payoff leg. That’s another smart way to go.
Maybe we should try to do all of it. Saturday night at Churchill downs on our NYRA bets accounts. What do you think. I like it. Let’s do it. Alright. Okay. Wow. That was good. That was good stuff long. And we’re not done yet because now we’re going to bring in a very special guest. And now I’d like to welcome back.
I say, welcome back. Technically, this guest has been many times over on the, in the money players podcast. Now of course we’re on the NYRA bets podcast, but you know, wink, wink, we’re all in the same family here. Very excited about this guest. He has been doing a great job in his new gig at Monmouth park.
I’m talking about our old friend, Jason beam. Jason, how are you doing tonight, Peter? I think I’ve been with you on like six different parts. That’s okay. Sounds about right. But I think this is a maiden voyage though this week where we’re being very cheeky because the technical late week in the money show is, is our Ascott monster pod.
So our NYRA show is taking over the role of the, in the money pod, where we were looking back to Belmont week and looking ahead to this weekend of racing. And there’s a lot of interesting stuff and not the least of which is that Monmouth park. We were just talking off air for a minute. Apparently the vision of having a little bit better quality of racing at mom at this year is coming to reality.
What are you seeing when you look over this Saturday card where I’m seeing. So if some big fields as the announcer, that’s, that’s the first thing I, uh, I noticed, but, uh, it’s been interesting to watch. They, they, I think they kind of purposely started things a little bit slower. In fact, uh, as the day we’re talking, uh, for Friday is the first Friday of the meet.
Uh, they’re they’re, they’re just now going to start incorporating three-day weeks. Uh, and so I think they, and I think they’re doing that a little later this year because the meat is going to go a little bit longer this year. It’s going into deep October, they’re going to run Sundays kind of concurrent with the NFL in October, I believe is the, uh, is the plan for part of that extension.
But, uh, obviously the, the purse money increasing, you know, I think it has meant that we’re just going to see some more horses and more competitive races. I think that Monmouth, uh, the last couple of years, I mean, there’s been some barns that have really, really dominated and service and Navarro are kind of the two that come to mind.
Uh, and I think I was doing the math the other day. I think they’ve won. 14 or 15 out of 140 races so far. So, um, it’s strong, but it’s not, I think what it’s been in the past. Yeah. Not crazy, nothing crazy. What is your plan for the meat? Uh, our mutual friend, Frank Mir Matti, with the closing of Santa Anita, going to be heading back East.
Are you sticking around for the duration? What’s your situation? So my plan is I’m going to my last day is a Sunday, the 23rd or the 20? Yeah, 23rd. So there’s the UN on Saturday and, uh, the Eatontown and the is Islam. And then Sunday’s my last day. Uh, Frank will be back that following weekend. I’m going to go up to Suffolk for the closing weekend.
There. And, uh, go, go see Boston. I’ve never been there. And then I’m actually going to take a month off and just kinda chill out. Uh, I got an Airbnb all set in the upstate New York and I’m going to go to Toronto for a weekend and, uh, and kind of just, uh, enjoy a relaxing July. I might come back for the Haskell.
Uh, my Airbnb is like booked up until like two days before Haskell just in case. Uh, and so I feel, I feel very invested in Monmouth right now, emotionally. So like, I, I kind of want to be there for the big race. Like I’ve been talking about it between races, you know, so, uh, yeah, and then I have to be to a colonial on the 31st to help with the launch up to that.
So, and then I think I’m coming back to Monmouth for the end of them. I haven’t, uh, I don’t know that we officially. Agreed on that, but it was kind of, well, it sounds like there’s a chance. We’ll see you in Saratoga. That is that during that in between. Yeah, I, uh, I, I’m not sure. I I’m, I’m going to try and if I do, it’ll probably be the first week.
Well, I’ll tell you what man, w we’ve we’ve got couches, we’ve got room. You need a place to stay in Saratoga. You talked to me and we’ll have a great time out there hanging out at the, uh, the paddock bar, AK the post bar. You decide, you want to make it, you need any help at all. You just let me know. Yeah, I very well might take you up on that.
One of the, I liked being on the NY rebel podcast because I, uh, I got a lot of friends at or so, so friends are not my shortage there, which is great. Yeah. Excellent. Well, we’re glad to hear it. Let’s drill down a little bit specifically into this weekend action at Monmouth. Obviously the headlines are on Sunday with the return of the horse that finished first across the wire in the Kentucky Derby.
But we’re going to start out on Saturday talking about the honeybee steaks five and a half. Furlongs on the turf. No shortage of speed. Where do you land here? Jason? It’s an interesting race and these, these five and a half races have been interesting to not only call, but just watch because. They are kind of unique in that they’re kind of a turn and a half most turf sprints.
Obviously you think of it as one turn. And then of course with ASCA coming up, you think of is no turn, right? And so these ones are very interesting. I think that it is of paramount importance for, to be drawn toward the inside or be able to get good positioning. Cause I’ve seen already where horses who were three or four wide kind of up that little shoot when they start to turn onto the back stretch, you see them get shuffled back and I’ve seen it happen a bunch of times, but that’s not to say you can’t win from coming off the pace.
I just think it’s, it’s very advantageous to be upfront early. Uh, the aforementioned Jason service has a horse name, a bit of both. Who’s coming off of three, very, very big OpenLink wins and they’ve all been wired, a wire, uh, the horses feather four for five with one second. The only time he didn’t win was when he didn’t get the lead.
But that being said, those were all dirt races. And I would be curious to hear your input just. I always think that dirt speed and turf speed, they do not always translate the same way. I think that’s right. I mean, often I’ll think of dirt speed as being more intense than turf speed, but then when you look at the pedigree, that’s really what sort of seals the deal.
If I see a horse who’s been showing speed on dirt, but has some sort of grass in the pedigree, I will tend to lead towards them. When I see, you know, by painter out of, uh, Lizzie Kay, by high fly, I don’t know, but when it comes to these turf sprints, just saying, Hey, you know what? In service we trust that hasn’t done too poorly over the last couple of seasons, has it.
Well, and he’s got another runner in there that he claimed for 20,000. And the other thing that we know he’s, he’s obviously done very well at is, you know, I hope when I look at trainer stats, I mean, with Chad Brown and with service and these guys that win at 29 or 30%, you know, most of their categories are going to be in that ballpark.
And so the only ones that really interests me are kind of the outliers and service. First off the claim is one of those he’s 41% and it’s actually a pretty high, positive ROI. Uh, this is obviously a big ass going from 20,000 to, uh, to a stake race, but you know, it was 20,000 at Gulf stream is a speedy type.
The horses tend to one in the line. I’m curious to see what the odds are. Uh, the other one that kind of interests me is the Mike’s didn’t horse, the number seven, Ms. Ms. Just because I think the horse has pretty good tactical speed has shown that it can go by horses, but you know, the soaring softly, a grade three at Belmont.
You know, that’s, that’s a pretty salty race. And so the horse was in contention till the very, very end, and that was going seven. So I think shorten up might help this horse and, uh, with a lot of speed to the inside might kind of fall into a decent little trip. I liked that shout for Ms. Ms. The number seven here STEM, certainly another trainer you can trust with impunity, certainly worth noting that the pace in that soaring softly was very hot as well.
And miss Ms. Attended that pace, just a length off the first quarter that went into one 42 coded red time for him, the cutback might be an order and that ability to be tactical and yet pass horses. I definitely see where you’re going with that. Any other thoughts on this one, Jason, before we move on to the big one on Sunday?
No, not particularly. I mean the Saturday card I think is one of the better ones we’ve had from an overall perspective. The other thing it sees is it sees a couple of dirt sprints with, uh, with some really, really good sized fields, racist seven and, uh, Um, nine are both 11 and 13, uh, kind of the theme. As far as field size, this meat has been, the dirt races have been smaller and the turf races have been bigger.
And, uh, it’s nice to see the dirt races starting to pick up at the, uh, the entry box a little bit, absolutely catching up for all the reasons we were talking about before with some of the differences happening at this Monmouth meet than in recent years. But Sunday is a day where I think a lot of real racing fans, not so much a gambling opportunity here, in my opinion, but if you’re a racing fan, the opportunity to go and.
Clap eyes on the horse that crossed the wire first in the Kentucky Derby in maximum security in this Pegasus stakes. I mean, heck I’m not going to be around. I’m going to be on TV in the UK talking about this race. I’m looking forward to talking about it, but I mean, that’s a pretty cool opportunity if you’re a racing fan to be able to go out to Monmouth and, uh, and, and see this one in the flesh, I imagine you’re pretty excited about the opportunity to call this one.
Yeah. Excited and nervous. Probably the two best words. I mean, there’s going to be a lot of eyeballs on it and, uh, you know, it’s not everyday, you get to call a horse that, as you said, finished first in the Kentucky Derby, that’s the thing I’m most concerned about is there’s some wording with maximum security that we have to kind of dance around a little.
I mean, you can’t really say the Derby winner, right. Cause we know Florida, the Florida Derby, but, um, I, I actually, I have a pretty good idea of how I will address various opportunities. Uh, if he wins, if he wins going away or if he loses, I feel, I feel like I got it. A decent idea. I try not to go in with much of a script, but, uh, you know, I th I think you wanna, you wanna at least have a few different options.
I was going to ask a race like this. That seems pretty straightforward on paper. I mean, maybe you disagree. We’ll see, but it must be very tempting when there’s, it feels like there are two scenarios here, right? It’s something logical happens or something doesn’t. And I would think that scripting, it becomes very tempting in that scenario, but you, you resist that to some degree.
Uh, I mean, no, I, I, I think there, I think I certainly have a few different things in mind that I would say, like I said, I’ll, I’ll probably play out three or four of the most likeliest scenarios or what I think are the most, you know, as you said, a logical or, and then the, the illogical, um, but you know, in the end we’ve had this conversation before about, you know, having handicapping too much of the race you want to call in the end.
I really, really do think my job is just to call the race and I try not to be an announcer and it gets. Yeah, I certainly don’t want to make it about me cause it isn’t. Uh, but you also want to honor the moment and, and what happens with it. So I, you know, I always tend to err on the side and plus, you know, I’ll be honest, I’m sure my nerves are going to be pretty strong.
So maybe the best move is not to have five things floating around in my head. Maybe it’s just a call. What happens? See what happens out there and just honor that and relay it to the folks, watching at home from a punting point of view, from a betting point of view, put that hat on for a second. Is there anything you could see turning maximum security over?
Is this a case of single and move on? Is this a case of maybe trying to find one to run with him? How do you see it from that lens? I, I think my, my approach on just looking at the race at first glance was to see what can anybody go with him? Because, uh, Monmouth. As it historically, and this meat has been pretty kind to horses up on lead on the dirt.
The ones that are left alone are the ones who are battling early on. I’ve seen, we’ve seen plenty of horses come from a little ways off the pace on the dirt track, but the ones that are able to kind of jog up front have been pretty tough to beat. And so I, I don’t know that it’s speed favoring as much as pace favoring in those examples.
And so, uh, I don’t think that the rail horses is fast. So I think he’s going to be able to make his way to the rail pretty quickly. Uh, King for a day, I guess is probably the one you look at as maybe the most likely, uh, pace pressure. He’s very lightly raced. Uh, it was first started the year was, it was a pretty good one in the sir Barton, but it was pretty good to be up front early that day on dirt.
And that was an early in the card race on Preakness day. Uh, and he was two to five that day. So, uh, you know, he obviously stuck out on a few different levels, but, um, I don’t think identifier identifier has been on the lead a couple of times, but it’s, they’ve both been pretty soft patients is, uh, going, going to turn.
So, um, I don’t really think he’s one. That’s going to go with. That horse. I certainly don’t think the other service horse is going to go with them. And, uh, and the horse on the outside kaledin is a, is a comfort behind her. So I honestly see it shaping up with maximum security, going to lead and King for a day.
Maybe trying to take a run at him, uh, early on, but maximum security, you know, I repeat he’s really, really good. And he took a fair bit of heat. In the Durham, the pace wasn’t that strong, but they were really coming after him at a few different points in that race. And he not only repelled everybody, he was pulling away late.
He won by almost two. He was one of the ranger run races I’ve ever seen in the coding and time form us really reflects that wicked fast first quarter. But then by the time you get to the third quarter, the fractions have gone from red to blue. You don’t see that that much, but then he finished up well again on the clock.
So it’s very hard to know what we’re dealing with here with maximum security in terms of like the overall ability, but he’s really good. And he’s obviously supposed to bury this lot interesting that he even shows up here. I think just as theater, it’s going to be fascinating for me, clearly more of a race to watch than to bet.
If you were forced to give somebody a betting idea, what would you say? Or would you just advise them to keep their money in their pocket? Well, I mean, one thing I think is worth noting is he hasn’t had the smoothest of times since the Derby, right? Like he got to Monmouth a couple of days after. And I had heard from people hear the track that he was obviously really tired from the race and the ship and stuff.
Uh, and then I remember, you know, service, wasn’t all that thrilled with kind of how he was jogging initially. Uh, you remember earlier this week they took, uh, they did the blood work and that was like a question Mark. I would have sworn on Tuesday that there was no way he was going run. Uh, the service really hadn’t committed to this race.
He kept saying, you know, the Haskell’s what we want. We might go into Pegasus. And so, uh, when I heard that they were doing the blood work, cause he wasn’t satisfied with his job. I thought there’s just no way he’s going. But, um, you know, so, so there, I guess there are. I, I certainly don’t think they’re red flags, but he’s worked very, very slowly.
Uh, his last work was 53 and four, you know, I mean, that’s kind of par for what service did before the Derby as well. In fact, it’s the exact, it’s the exact same time. And so, you know, if you, if you’re wanting to be contrarian and you’re looking at that, I mean, I suppose, you know, you can make a case for King for a day, as he’s only making his fifth career start, he’s got reason to improve, but what’s going to have to happen is.
I don’t, I don’t think any of these horses are going to improve to beat the best maximum security. I think he has to regress. If that makes sense. The issue at hand here, that makes perfect sense. So, I mean, I think it’s either watch or spend a small amount of money on a flyer on King for a day to try to have a little bit of a rooting interest, but really this one’s all about maximum security and whether or not he turns up be a lot of fun to watch.
Give us a nice little summer Sunday horse racing. Must spectacle. That’s right. That’s right. I’ve been in denial about it being father’s day, being away. We celebrated father’s day over here a couple of weeks ago in anticipation of the fact that I was going to be overworking, but that’s all right. It’s going to be fun to check out.
I’m looking forward to it. Looking forward to listening to your call. You know, you’ll be getting several shout outs this weekend, Jason, on sky sports, racing over in the UK. Cause we’ll be watching Monmouth with great interest. And I thank you for your time tonight and look forward to talking to you soon.
Yeah, I’m real big in Europe, too big in West London. That’s the stuff. I, you know what I will say? I know there’s a few folks over there who watched the BME awards. And so, so I probably have like three fans. I will, we’re going to give the BME towards a plug to you. Don’t worry about that. We’ll make sure we’ll get people paying attention.
You’ll you’ll get a few more, you’ll get a handful, more Twitter followers anyway, out of the activities this weekend. And with that, we’re going to wrap it up. I want to thank Jonathan Kenshin. I want to thank Jason beam. I want to thank our sponsors and there’s, you know, more every week, which is so great, but in particular thoroughbred retirement foundation, black type thoroughbreds, Monmouth park, Woodbine stats, race lens, 10 strike racing.
You’ve made this transition to doing an independent podcast of really fun and exciting thing. And I thank you for it immensely. Most of all, I want to thank all of you, the listeners, because you’re really the ones who make it all happen. This show has been a production of in the money media, in the money media’s business manager is drew Courtney I’m Peter Thomas foreign, a towel.
May you win all your photos?
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