Oaklawn Analysis for Friday, January 29

PTF posting for Spencer Luginbuhl

Race 1

#7 Catechism: Willing to give this four-year-old filly another shot because if you toss the last two wet tracks, she fits well off the races three and four back. Trainer Doug Anderson is a solid 22% off 31-60 day layoffs.

#3 Flatoya: One of the better droppers 2nd off the claim for Diodoro. One of the tried and true angles (speed and fade) is precisely what this daughter of Flatter did in that allowance at Delta Downs last time out. The small cut back to six furlongs should only help her speed this time out.

Selections 7-3

Race 2

#4 Flaming: This Filly goes from a 3% barn to the 20% barn of Karl Broberg. She has never raced this low before and gets a solid 20% jock on her for the first time in her career.

#9 Wild Escape: This daughter of Broken Vow is another one that is dropping in class. Her last two races have been her best by finishing position, she is also cutting back to a sprint, and trainer Lynn Chleborad is 21% with a positive ROI in a 30+ sample.

Selections 4-9-13

Race 3

#6 Backseat promises: This mare had a big race in her first start for trainer Andy Gladd. She ran a solid 3rd in an open 5K claimer, and her latest Beyer fits against the other short prices, and 5-1 is a substantial price to take here.

#2 Fleeta Bell: I have always liked horses in starter allowances that trainers want to claim in their last few races, and she is no different coming out of two top barns here at Oaklawn. She will need to improve on the Beyer scale, but VillaFranco off the reclaim tells me she might have more in the tank.

Selections: 6-2

Race 4

#2 Casual: I love the improvement of this daughter of Curlin, and now she is 3rd off the layoff, which is a considerable form positive. Another big positive is she has run faster as a three-year-old, which tells me she can take another step forward.

#4 Lady Rocket: She takes the standard drop back down the class ladder as maybe the Stake last time was too much too soon. I am lowering that Beyer from her allowance win as she did it at a slow pace. She still fits very well with three straight 80 Beyers, but I think she is a bit vulnerable in today’s race.

Selections 2-4-6

Race 5

#2 Bear Oak: Huge trainer change to Mike Maker, and this four-year-old coming off a solid 73 Beyer in the maiden romp. Geroux takes the call, and the other big positive is he ran well on a fast pace on the lead last time out.

#3 Major Kong:  This gelding just missed last time out on a sloppy track and was claimed out of that start by trainer Genaro Garcia, an astonishing 39% off a 31-60 day layoff with an 8$ ROI.

He is trying dirt for the first time today.

Selections: 2-3-9

Race 6

#9 Ima Bling Cat: This lightly raced son of Too Much Bling has the best last-out Beyer and the highest ceiling of the runners in this race. He will be my best bet of the afternoon.

#8 Explosive Humor: He will need to improve on Beyer’s, but one I’m adding due to the early speed that many maiden claimers don’t have. He is also in a new barn that hits at 33% first time out.

Selections: 9-8-11

Race 7

Check out Matt and I talk about this race on the Matt Bernier show from this week.

#5 Guided Missile: This four-year old improved last time out in the N1X, but what makes me put him on top is the excellent workout on the 22nd of January. Improved race plus solid work is an angle I have used fora long time to good solid winners.

#6 Atoka: this son of Union Rags will need to improve, but he hasn’t raced since last November. But being lightly raced, this one has been working out tremendously in the morning and one I want on all my tickets.

Selections: 5-6-4

Race 8

#6 The Sound: I will say there is no way that you will get 2-1 on this Brad Cox runner that 104 Beyer last time out was monstrous, and he’s had more than enough time off with excellent works over the winter.

#3 Mo Mosa: Another coming off a layoff. He was eased last time out, which should help your price. This son of Uncle Mo would need to improve off that 91 he got in the Oklahoma Derby to contend with our top pick in today’s race.

Selections: 6-3

Race 9

#11 Elitch: This eight-year-old son of Flatter was just reclaimed for trainer Steven Asmussen, and that angle is a huge one for me in claiming races. Three back ran an ok third at this 10K level and one that could upset at 6-1

#9 Candy Carlos: This seven-year-old gelding was eased out of the last race and now is dropped below the claiming price of 16K two back Broberg and Cabrera are a solid 22% together in the previous two years.

Selections: 11-9-6

 

 

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Further reading

Japan Racing Recap

Rob Reid Jr and I recap last weekends two big dirt races in Japan.
Will we see La Perouse or Cafe Pharoah in the US soon?  We discuss that and more!