Oaklawn Analysis for Saturday, February 6

PTF posting for Spencer Luginbuhl

 Race 1

#7 Optimus Kat: This son of Optimizer did well his first time running in maiden claiming company, running second. Unfortunately, that race came back pretty weak, only one of the six to come back and run has hit the exacta. But he looks like lone speed on paper to me, and sometimes that is all you need at this level.

#6 Beaucette’s Ekati: I’m imagining that something went wrong in that last race, which is why you see the long layoff. Trainer Jason Barkley has a positive ROI with these type of returnees. One significant negative for me is not much improvement throughout the first three starts on dirt. Usually, you’d like to see more progression a for lightly raced type, but he still fits on numbers.

Gailee: This dropper is scary for a win bet. They paid 425K at auction, and after one start, he’s in for 30K. He had some trouble at the start, and maybe the barn is overreacting to the bad loss? I’ll include based on the potential for raw talent.

Selections: 7-6-2

Race 2

#3 Kitchen Fire: This six-year-old is shipping in from Woodbine, and trainer Norm McKnight has already won with this angle at the meet, and Mojica was in the irons for that race as well. He is also very solid 13-17 in the money at the distance.

#5 Clear the Mine: Excellent starter allowance win last time out and comes in with the best last-out Beyer. Villafranco is very good, with last-out winners hitting at 24% over the previous five years off a base winning percentage of 21%.

#4: Paddy O’Dini: Has three straight improving Beyers, and it’s always hard for claimers to keep jumping up, but that big workout since the last win tells me there may be more in the tank. He is jumping up in class and shipping in from Delta Downs, which isn’t the strongest track.

Selections: 3-5-4

Race 3

#5 Golden Grant: She has been improving every race for John Ortiz and now comes in off a layoff. Two seconds in both starts against winners at decent odds 6/1 and 12/1, respectively. The race two back tells me she can be in a stable stalking position and make a good run.

#6 Happygobucky: Santana jumps back aboard, and the maiden win two back fits in well with these. Now she drops in class and fits the condition due to running for a tag three back for 30K.

#4 Overdressed:  Mike Maker has been reliable so far, hitting the board in 8 of 12 starts at the meet, winning three of those. She is 2-2 at six furlongs so far and had an improved work over this Oaklawn track a couple of days ago.

Selections: 5-6-3

Race 4

#3 Motown Girl: I love that the two board hits are at odds 10-1+ because that tells me she is often overlooked. Two of the last three race Beyers fit the par for this level, and her works look good.

#5 Tappin Into Summer: Ran into a monster in an off-the-turf debut for this daughter of Tapizar. She showed decent speed, always a positive for firsters. With standard second time improvement, she could run a high 60 low 70 Beyer.

#4 Sianara: Always good to see Santana stay in the irons for this second-time starter who is coming in off a pretty good gate work two back. She was stalking a fast pace, so I didn’t hold her fading at the end against her and even upgraded that debut Beyer a little bit.

Selections 3-5-4

Race 5

#10: Wyoming Conquest: This four-year-old gelding broke the maiden at weaker Belterra Park but has looked good in two of three races so far against winners. The last race was at today’s level and featured a hot pace he was stalking, and he ran a Beyer above the par.

#5 Southside Swig: This gelding has improved significantly in his last two starts, breaking his maiden and running a solid third in the mud at 127-1. A nice angle I look at is the horse able to overachieving with lower-profile connections, and he’s a good example.


Race 6

#4 Ace Destroyer; He ran well for an open 10K claimer with a 71 Beyer and now drops into conditioned claimer non winners since September, and he only has two starts since that break off point, and in these types of races, the lesser starts in between the better.

#1 Carpe Victorium: Maybe this will be John Sadler’s first winner of the meet? This horse is 1-1 at Oaklawn, and that last race at Los Alamitos fits well with our top pick. The trainer jockey combo is a massive 32% in the last two years at Oaklawn.

Selections: 4-1

Race 7

#6 Shoplifted: This four-year-old son of Into Mischief ran some great races last year at Oaklawn and now drops in facing allowance foes for the first time. This feels like a class drop long overdue, as his previous win was the Springboard Mile at two, and he was G1 stakes-placed last year.

#1 Royal Daaher: Ran second to public favorite (of sorts!) Hidden Scroll last time out. He has run a 90 Beyer before against allowance company, and I feel we are getting into the proven loser territory at this class level. You should play these proven loser types underneath usually, and if they win a race, the rest of the field is typically weak for the level.

Selections: 6-1-3

Race 8

#2 Seven Nation Army: This newly turned six-year-old got in some good form at the end of last year and was very consistent with the Beyers in the 90s in four straight races. He was 3-3, hitting the board at Oaklawn the previous year with a win on the lead in an optional claiming race.

#1 Strike Power: He ran well first out for Asmussen when dropped in an allowance race and now steps right back up to a listed stake. He ran two of his best races on the PPs off a layoff, and if he gets back to his True North, they are all running for second.

Selections: 2-1-3

Race 9

#6 Spurwink Lane: I love the fact that she ran so well the first time out at Oaklawn Park. Maybe she has an affinity for the track? Perhaps something went wrong in the Lone Star race, and that is why we have the layoff. She now gets back running fresh and is back at Oaklawn.

#8 Longntall: Trainer John Ortiz is 21% with first-time starters, and there are some excellent 48-second workouts. I usually like to see two sub 49 second works or sub 1:01 for five furlongs works for me to play first-time starters.

Selections: 6-8-1







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