Oaklawn Analysis for Saturday, January 24

PTF posting for Spencer Luginbuhl

Race 1

#5 Its My Bag Baby: One of my favorite angles is having a trainer reclaim a horse. Brad Cox now reclaims back from Maker, and for me, I feel this time around Cox wouldn’t claim without a plan. He does drop below the claiming tag, which is usually a negative factor. The races two and three back are good enough based on Beyers.

#8 Rogollo: Tough horse for me to place this son of Curlin has had four races in the Diodoro Barn, and there are races from 58-74, so not a lot of consistency, and these types always seem to take money.

#4 Alex’s Strike: This gelding has the best Beyers in the field but seems to be going backward, and even though there is a drop, I need to see a good race before im willing to back on the win end.

Selections 5-8-4

Betting Strategy: Pass

Race 2

 #7 Rare Form: Just won for 16K and got claimed by one of my favorite claiming trainers in Diodoro— he’s 26% off the claim in the last two years; even a small bounce still has this one in front on the Beyer scale to me 

#10 Ego: This six-year-old gelding is a solid 12-1 morning line and one I will be using heavily in exactas with my top pick. Nice allowance win two back, and I feel the drop to the claiming level isn’t one of desperation but trying to find a winning spot.

#3 Knights Cross: Another claimed off a win at 16K, and to me is the most consistent; his last five races were all in the 70+ Beyers and could upset if my top pick bounces more then I think.

Selections 7-10-3

Betting Strategy: Exactas focusing on keying my second choice around my other selections 

Race 3 

#1 Please the Court: Huge 20-1 M.L. and nothing wrong with the last batch of races all in the ’70s for Beyers. he is taking a drop-in class and is very live in this wide-open third race.

#6 All Star Red: This son of Five Star Day is coming off the layoff and off the claim for Jerry Hollendorfer. The back class Beyers are good enough here, and I would imagine Hollendorfer can move up this horse a couple of points off that last race.

#11 Bitumen: This favorite to me is a little vulnerable as he doesn’t blow anyone away on the Beyer scale, but due to being in the Diodoro barn, he will take money. Look to try and beat this one, but I won’t be shocked if he wins a close race.

Selections: 1-6-11

race 4

#7 Champagneonme: Ran a solid third last time out for 50K at Del Mar, and this will be the third start in the Sadler barn since the claim; Sadler does fine off the layoff, and I feel he could be ready to make a forward move here at Oaklawn while also turning back in distance.

#4 Town Champ: Another big morning Line of 15/1 this son of Speightstown loves Oaklawn 4 wins in 5 tries and is 5-10 at today’s distance. Im fair taking a flier on these types early in a meet when some horses might not handle the surface.

#9 Easy Shot: Jason Barkley does very well off the claim: 28% with a 4$ ROI. This five-year-old’s back numbers fit nicely in here, and at 5-1, I think it is worth a shot and should be included in multi-race wagers.

Selections 7-4-9

Race 5

#4 Outasite: Improved the Beyer 2nd time out and has shown good speed in both starts and holds a nice Beyer edge in this group 

#5 Stiletto Boy: Ran better then it looks on paper, being a bit too far back with slow fractions upfront. Trainer Doug Anderson has a massive ROI of $8 with second-time starters.

#9 King of the Nite: Another that improved second time out. Diodoro had a slow opening day with 0 wins. This jockey/trainer combo hits at 28%.

Race 6

#1 Night Ops: Comes off a nice G3 win at Prarie Meadows last time out, and we know he loves it here, being 3-6 lifetime. I don’t look at this drop as a negative but more a definite starting point to the campaign.

#5 Hunka Burning Love: Excellent numbers the last two times out at this level and showed that he could handle a hot pace at the stakes level last time out. Leave off your tickets at your own risk.

#7 Combatant: Based on past form, he should win here, but I am entirely against him. Since that S.A. handicap win the last year, he’s been awful needs to show he’s back here, and I’m not taking a short price.

Selections 1-5-7

Race 7

#7 Swiftsure: Huge debut for this son of Uncle Mo, he never really slowed down from a pace figure starting at 106 and ending at a 101. Asmussen is outstanding when his horses are in good form, winning 22% with horses returning from a win.

#8 Causeway Jones: He broke his maiden at what people would consider a weaker track in Remington Park, but at 10-1, and if my top pick takes a ton of money, I will switch over to this one who is also running first time out of the Holldendorfer barn.

#4 Lock Up: Another who can show speed and finally woke up last time out breaking the maiden. Maybe the lightbulb is turning on for this son of Macleans Music.

Selections 7-8-4

Race 8

#12 Our Super Freak: She had good numbers at the graded stake level last year, and I like the cutback in the distance to a mile. The last time she was in a listed stake, she won.

#6 Istan Council: This daughter of Istan has been slowly improving for Larry Jones, and another forward move puts her right in with the other contenders. She’s hit the board in her last two listed stake tries, and this one could be a season definer for her.

#9 Regal Beauty: She won two back in a salty allowance at Keeneland and followed it up with an excellent second in a listed stake. Trainer Brett Calhoun is a solid 27% off 31-60 day layoffs

Race 9

#3 Marion Francis: This daughter of Tapit ran a fantastic 2nd first time out and has excellent connections in her corner. In an old James Quinn book, he talks about how horses that finish second last time out win more then their fair share of maiden races, so im going with that angle here.

#1 Windmill: Since Barry Meadows’s book The Skeptical Handicapper came out, Im no longer afraid of talking firsters on the rail. They win at around the same percentage as other firsters. This one has back to back gate works, which another reliable handicapper Benny Southstreet talks about as a positive when looking at first-time starters. Trainer Larry Jones is a solid 14% with first-time starters.



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