Oaklawn Analysis for Saturday, January 30

PTF posting for Spencer Luginbuhl, host of Redboard Rewind.

Race 1
#4 Sweet Tatum: This seven-year-old mare has a couple of races that fit at this level. I’m not the biggest fan of older horses coming off a layoff, but trainer Timothy Martin is 12% off this type of layoff, and she is also 5-9 in the exacta at today’s distance.

#7 Scarlet Position: Her last race looks better on paper as she was on the lead with slow fractions, so for me, she ran more like a low 60 Beyer, which still can have her hit the board, but I think she will be an underlay based off that perfect trip last time out.

Selections: 4-7-9

Race 2
#9 King Henrik: Top Connections for this son of Honor Code combine at 45% with a positive

ROI, More than enough works to have the conditioning and trainer Tom Amoss is 31% with debut maiden claimers.

#8 Junesandra: I had this one on top last time out on Springboard Mile day at Remington Park, and he lost to a first-time starter that day. He didn’t improve the second time out, and that’s a negative, but he has the two best Beyer’s by a wide margin.

Selection 9-8-3

Race 3
#6 Arrival: This son of Tapit is coming in 2nd off a layoff and stretching out to a route, and I love the 12-1 M.L. His best race is at this class level, and on this track, he needs a little improvement on speed figures but definitely worth the risk-reward.

#4 Rated R Superstar: I Can’t believe this eight-year-old is still around and has made 800K in his career. If you take away his last two on the synthetic track, he’s got two straight 90+ Beyer’s and will be bet in this spot. Leave out at your own risk.

Selections: 6-4-8

Race 4
#5 Keep Your Distance: Diodoro is off to a cold start 1-11 so far but has this seven-year-old mare in excellent form, and Cohen retains the mount for the third time.

#8 It’s Cold in Dehere: Since being claimed, three back out of the Amoss barn two straight 2nds shows trainer William Morey has also kept her in solid form, especially the race two back closing into slow fractions you can upgrade that performance.

Selections: 5-8-3 Race 5

#1 Joy’s Rocket: This daughter of Anthony’s Cross 3 wins in 4 starts with one second and has that excellent slow progression on the Beyer scale. The one negative is it’s her first time around two turns.

#3 Coach: This three-year-old filly has the class edge, being G2 placed, but she doesn’t have the early zip our top pick has. Brad Cox has been red hot and seems to win one stake a week. She has been working well since her last race.

Selections: 1-3

Race 6
#9 The Mary Rose: She has shown good ability at the allowance and listed stake level oh and it’s also first time Brad Cox who is 38% at the meet so far.

#12 Too Pretty: Broke her maiden two back at a mile and didn’t run amazing in the allowance last time out. Monster bullet in that last work tells me this one should be ready off the layoff.

Selections: 9-12

Race 7
#11 Right Trappe: Trainer Steve Hobby is 4-5 in the last two years, first off the claim with a 4$ ROI. Out of the contenders, this one has raced twice at the maiden claiming level, but the Beyers fit amongst the droppers.

#4 Lutescoot N Boogie: I think this daughter of Midnight Lute needs to be closer to the pace, and I’m willing to forgive the latest race. She has the best grouping of Beyer’s all in the mid-’50s, 2,3, and 4 back.

Selections: 11-4-10

Race 8
#7 Frank’s Rockette: My best bet of the day her only off the board finish was against older males, and she has been crushing fillies at sprint distances. She blew out a listed stake in her three-year-old debut, and I think she does the same today.

#5 Wildwood Beauty: This five-year-old mare always runs. She is multiple graded stakes-placed and ran very well three back in a G1 on the pace with red fractions.

Selections: 7-5-6

Race 9

#5 Backshot: This four-year-old comes off the claim for Karl Broberg. I’m interested to see if he can improve him more over the Peter Miller barn. He has been working well in the mornings and has the one good race from last year at Oaklawn as well, so he can handle the track.

#3 Fastly: Good win last time out, breaking his maiden. He seems to run well each time but don’t like all those seconds and thirds. It’s usually a negative taking a maiden winner at a short price against winners for the first time.

Selections: 5-3-7


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