Oaklawn Late Pick 4 Analysis for Sunday, January 25

PTF posting for Spencer Luginbuhl

Race 5

#9 Garhole: This son of Tekton doesn’t have many works, but the magic number for me is twenty furlongs of workouts shows good conditioning for first-time starters. Trainer John Ortiz is 23% with first-time starters.

#3 Funny Actor:  I’m willing to give this son of Danza a pass in the debut as he went off at 76-1. They weren’t expecting much in that race. Trainer Wayne Catalano is a fantastic 28% with second-time starters.

#13AE Mahomey: if this three-year-old gelding can improve off that debut, he will be very dangerous. He has four works since that debut effort and is a must use for me here.

A=9-3

B=13

Race 6

#5 Long Term Thinking: Tough maiden race. This son of Quality Road has just missed by less than a length in his last three starts. I feel this is the right field for him as zero runners have the type of Beyers he does.

#7 Niles Channel: Villafranco had himself a day on opening day with a couple of wins and won with some horses I tossed out. The better races were at the maiden claiming level, but those Beyers fit nicely in here. It’s first time out in the new barn and will be a backup for me.

#10 Pintxos: I like the race two back as he showed speed and now cuts back and could have some extra stamina in a race. I feel a horse won’t need a lot of improvement to win.

A=5

B=7-10

Race 7

#5 American Butterfly: Toss the last race as it’s just not the right surface, but all the races before this son of American Pharoah always fires his best shot. He is 6 for 7 at today’s distance with one win and four seconds.

#3 Energizer: Top connections for this son of Uncle Mo and coming off an N1X allowance win at Fairgrounds will need to improve the Beyer, But Asmussen is 22% with horses that won last time out.

#4 Royal Daaher: The last two races are super solid, and it’s always a positive when Cabrera takes the leg up. The big negative for me is Devito is 0-14 last two years off layoffs. 

A=5-3

B=4-9

Race 8

#3 Inject: Huge (!!!!) trainer change to Brad Cox, and that last race is better then you think on paper as the pace was fast upfront, so the 67 last time out is more like a low seventies Beyer. The 4-1 of the mornings line is likely a pipe dream but one that can upset at odds of around 5-2.

#6 Southern Grayce: The other Cox runner in the race; was solid win in the debut, and now takes the next step up the class ladder. We usually see the most improvement from debut to the second start, so the usual 8-10 point improvement will make this runner tough.

#7 Ekati’s Hit: Improved in every race and took a substantial step forward off the turnback last time out. This daughter of Tale of Ekati could play spoiler at an excellent value M.L. of 6-1

A=3-6-7

Race 9

#5 Solomonic: Mike  Maker has been fantastic to me the first few days of the meet. This son of Paynter gets blinkers on, which I think will make him show even more speed. He takes a solid class drop down to 30K starter allowance, which I believe will make the difference. 

#8 Stock Deal: This four-year-old has been improving every race, and I want horses improving at good odds that other players may overlook. He just missed at this level last time out at 25-1.

A=5-8

B=1

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