Oaklawn Park Analysis-2-4-2021- By Spencer luginbuhl

Race 1
#1 Arlington’s Shine: This gelding improved a ton routing for the first time in his latest race and has the best last-out Beyer. It would be best if you got value out of this choice. If he takes a lot of money, I will pass the race. Trainer Norman Ashauer is 3% last five years off this layoff in a 90+ sample. size

#4 Thornish: I love playing against these types of favorites. I look for some angles to play against is 10+ races without winning, and over his last ten races, the top two figures came on a wet track. Now the reason I’ve left him in 2nd is that he can show early speed, and while some have run faster earlier, they usually finish up the track. Santana rode once before and did get a near-miss last year at Oaklawn.

#7 Moonshine Moment: After the top two picks, you are forced to stretch a little to find another win contender. This four-year-olds best race was closing on a fast pace here last year. Most of the runners in this field have lost for 15K or less, and this one hasn’t run for less then 30K so far. He has only routed once in his career over a wet track.

Selections: 1-4-7-5

Race 2

#3 Dunph: I remember that race five back from Oaklawn like it was yesterday. This horse ran faster Beyer’s then both Rebel winners. Since that race, he hasn’t run anything close, although maybe coming back to life last time out with an ok 2nd as the beaten favorite. He is the main dropper to look out for, and I am cncerned about how much money he will take.

#4 Shortlist: This is a horse that is hard to know how to play. He loves to run second and, as a M.L. favorite, should be a play against, but with two Diodoro’s in the race, maybe he goes up in value. Sadler and Santana have only teamed up six times in the past five years with zero wins. Four of the last five Beyer’s fit par and make him dangerous.

#2 Cashanova: The new Diodoro on the scene will need to improve based on his fast dirt tries, although you know he likes Oaklawn with two of four lifetimes wind coming at this oval. This trainer and jock have already hit together with a horse. first off, the claim at the meet

Selections: 3-4-2-5

Race 3
#4 Heritage Park: This five-year-old does his best running at Oaklawn Park as both his two career lifetime wins came here. The trainer is only 5% off this type of layoff, but I tend not to look into layoffs stats if the horse has won off a layoff, which he did breaking the maiden.

#2 Weast Hill: This M.L. fav breaks from the rail sue to the entry in this race, and his last race was excellent, against open 6.25K claimers at the end of this meet last year. This one is also a horse for course and has run substantially better Beyer’s than the other runners in this race. Can he run well off the layoff is the question.

#5 Iza Daddy: One trainer you don’t have to worry about off a layoff is Diodoro 20% the last two years. This type of horse is one I use underneath since the claim five back he’s hit the board four times without a win.

Selections: 4-2-5-3

Race 4
#7 Rock Ridge: This son of Tiznow has improved every race against better. He showed good speed in last, which is something you always want to see in a dropper. Top connections only add to the appeal.

#5 Grand Design: 5-1 is probably never happening with Geroux in the saddle and Cox training. He is another taking the most significant drop in racing from MSW to MC. Now he cuts back to a mile and has been working exceptionally well in the morning.

#9 Niles Channel: this type of maiden runner always takes too much money and never wins the amount they should. He’s lost multiple times at the level but has, but upon more then one occasion, a good enough Beyer to win at the level he always seems to find one that beats him.

Selections: 7-5-9

Race 5
#8 Ms. Falsetto: Bombs away in this race for me. I usually look for horses that are lightly raced under ten starts, and this four-year-old stumbled in the last race and, although closed into a fast pace, ran a solid third at 33-1. The three opening Beyer’s to the career at Remington Park fit well here.

#6 Unburnt: Yes, this one has over ten starts but just broke the maiden two back in good time and found the Optional N1X level hard and now drops into the conditioned claiming ranks for the first time.

#4 Western Attire: This daughter of Old Fashioned has ok Beyer’s to hit the board at another long-shot price possibly. Keeping Harr in the irons is a positive for me.

Selections: 8-6-4-1

Race 6
#3 Dryspell: This son of Not This Time ships and drops in class after showing speed and fading in his debut. This jock/trainer combo hits at 33% with a 6$ ROI.

#6 Axis: 4-year-olds usually arent good contenders on the win end, but the last four races Beyer’s are some of his best. He seems to be cycling up in his form cycle to when he was with the Broberg barn.

Selections: 3-6-2

Race 7
#2 Snapper Sinclair: This six-year-old has been facing some good tough horses at route distances. He likes Oaklawn as that’s where the best form cycle on his page is at Oaklawn from last year with three straight board hits, including a third in a G3.

#6 Plainsman: He won three straight for Brad Cox in 2018, and now it’s third of the barn switch back to Cox. The 93 two back fits well here, and you have an excuse of being up close to a hot pace in the stake at fairgrounds.

Selections: 2-6

Race 8
#6 Aint No Elmers: This four year old can be given a pass for the lousy B.C. race. Sh ran a solid 2nd in a G3 and won an optional 62K three back. she loves six furlongs having three wins in five starts

#4 Bye Bye J: another that can be given a pass for a lousy B.C. race. She needs a slower pace upfront to be effective but unlike our top choice loves the Oaklawn track, also having three wins from five starts.

Selections: 6-4-1

Race 9
#3 Wicked Flashback: When taking horses moving up the class ladder, make sure their Beyer’s are fast enough based on the par for the level. She has been on the improve every race, and that 75 last time out is much stronger then the par for the class, which is a 68, so she could bounce and still be effective.

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