Arkansas breds will be featured this weekend at Oaklawn, starting today with the Downthedustyroad Breeders’ Stakes. Fillies and mares bred in the Natural State will sprint six furlongs in today’s feature, which is led by the multiple Grade 3 winning mare, Haulin Ice. She crushed her foes in this race last year and Saffie Joseph brings her back to Oaklawn for her 9th start on this course. First post this afternoon is set for 12:30 PM (CST).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 2 | 6 | 6,12 | 3 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3,8,1 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 5 | 8 | 8 | 7 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 6 | 8 | 8,7 | 4 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 8 | 8 | 8 | 2 | DBL, $3 PK3 | |
| 9 | 7 | 7,6,10 | $5 DBL | ||
| 10 | 10 | 10,11 | 9 |
Race 1:
$40K maiden claimers bred in Arkansas, will bookend this Friday afternoon card. This race will be run at six furlongs whereas the nightcap will be a route. This looks like a good spot for the favorite, Taken On the Run (#3). He’ll be making his second start off the layoff and he’ll be getting class relief while doing so. He’s a four year old whose main competition is a 14 time maiden and some lightly raced three year olds. He debuted with $50K state bred maiden claimers here last year when he ran into a beast. He improved to run a sharp second in open maiden allowance company at Lone Star before heading to the sidelines. He faced another very good Arky bred when returning to the races here last month. He was slow into stride, but he was moving up at the end of the race. The class relief will be welcome today and Cristian Torres opting to stick around after his last start feels encouraging. Run Louie Run (#6) is the wild card in this race. He’s debuting for Greg Compton who has good numbers with first time starters in a limited sample. The recent works are sharp for a barn that is slowly heating up after a miserable start. Apprentice rider, Joshua Radosevich is looking for his first win on this course.
Race 2:
Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $12,500 maiden claiming race. You’ll see that the horses bred in Arkansas will run with a $20,000 tag. It’s definitely slim pickings in this race. Nandina (#6) is typically the kind of horse that I’d play against, especially since she’s making her first start in over 28 months. However, she has been working well for her new connections and she’s been put in an extremely modest race. She has more tactical speed than favorite, Reya Sunshine (#12), so perhaps there’s also more upside with this one. Reya Sunshine keeps running figures that would be good enough to win this race. She is dropping to the lowest level in her career after being a voided claim when she was last seen on the track in August. She also has been working well, and she’s just better than many of these. I’ll use Miss Que Sara (#3) as a deeper saver in this race, especially seeing as how the top two picks are coming off layoffs and dropping in class. She came back from almost five months on the bench when faced better horses here in January. She drops in class for her second start back. If the top two falter, she’d likely be the default.
Race 3:
A field of eight has been assembled for this $20K N3L claiming race going six furlongs. This is another really confusing race because there are several class droppers coming off some poor efforts, and I’m not seeing a lot of signals that some of these horses are going to bounce back. Bavaria Road (#3) is the lukewarm top pick for me here. He’s a lightly raced five year old son of Speightstown who was an allowance winner on the dirt at Canterbury this summer. He went to the sidelines and returned here with beaten $30K-$25K claimers in his last try. He didn’t get a great trip, but was able to pick his way through traffic to get into 5th. I think he’s capable of a better effort with a smoother journey and I can see him stalking the pace with some horses that could fold up fairly quickly if they’re headed. Coty Rosin won 17% of his races as a trainer in 2025, but his runners at this meet are 0-18, with not one of them hitting the board. I think we’re going to see some of his runners move forward in the next month or so as there are some races being carded that will offer these horses a better fit. Kunan (#8) would be the top pick if it seemed like he was working better in the mornings. He was claimed for $20K by Greg Compton on a day he humbled a field of $20K N2L claimers at Keeneland. He ran into a beast when running in a starter allowance race here on Opening Weekend when he was last seen on the track. I don’t trust Cool Cowboy (#4), Secured Leader (#5), or Suncroft (#6) to be finishing with a lot of gusto, so I’m hopeful that he can turn it around. Searcy (#1) showed nothing when coming back off the layoff in a $40K-$35K N3L claiming race where he was entered with the waiver. He might be one start away from showing his best, but when he’s right, he’s capable of running big races from time to time. At longer odds in this field, especially where I’m having trouble trusting the shorter prices, I’d consider using him.
Race 4:
Older runners will go six furlongs in a $50K open claiming race here. I think this a great spot for Lundberg (#3), who is already making his 4th start at this meet. He was a winner with open $30K-$25K claimers here on Opening Weekend. He faced two large and strong first level allowance fields in his last two starts. He was a distant second two back and he ended up 7th in his try. I think the class relief will serve him well as he tries to win on this oval for the 4th time in his 15th local start. The backup for me is Goodasionewas (#6), who makes his first start since November for Mike Maker. He was a winner in open $62,500 claiming company that afternoon, which was two starts removed from being claimed for $75K this summer at the Spa. He has decent races over this course, but this is a horse that has historically been a little less sharp when coming back from this kind of break. He might be sharp enough to still win this race, but I think he might be more dangerous next time.
Race 5:
Three year olds will go 1 1/16 miles in this $24K-$20K maiden claiming race. While the class edge in this field goes to Timberline (#8) by a mile, he has shown absolutely no early speed whatsoever in his three starts in maiden special weight company. He did face Further Ado and Liberty National in his first two starts, so he was running in above average maiden races. He was roughed up at the break last out when facing a field that was not as deep. He wound up trailing early and never really gaining much ground when swinging wide out in the middle of the course. He plummets in class while getting Lasix and blinkers for the first time. He has been running in two turn races, and I’m thinking that with the blinkers, he might be able to be more focused on the task at hand. He’s the play on top. The horse he’s going to have to have to run down is Dreamforyou (#7). He ran into a runaway winner in a $35K-$30K maiden claimer here last month. He’s been gradually getting better and he has a little more tactical speed than the favorite. Unless someone is looking like a million dollars in the paddock or in warm ups, these figure to be the two that will decide this one.
Race 6:
The Late Pick-5 begins with a $12,500 N2L claiming race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. This continues to look like a card where there are going to be several short prices. In this race, and in the case of the many of these races, it’s not that the favorites are that impressive, it’s that many of the races today are filled with several horses that have not shown much on the racetrack lately or at all. David Fawkes trains the favorite, Silent Strike (#7) and the second choice on the morning line, What’s Her Number (#8). I don’t love either, but the alternatives are kind of gross here. Yes to Champagne (#1) has fallen apart of the stretch in her last 11 starts. Army Mule (#6) was claimed for $32K in her last start and is now in for $12,500 after two abysmal efforts. Cur Non (#4) might have some upside, but her recent works have been very slow. This feels like the right spot for What’s Her Number to get her second win. She’s been entered with the waiver in his last two starts when racing with similar. She broke her maiden this spring at Churchill and she has a few good efforts on this course. Silent Strike has one start on a traditional dirt course and that came at Fort Erie in an Ontario bred stakes race. She broke her maiden in her last start, which was her 15th. She gets blinkers for her local debut where she feels well-spotted. I’ll use Cur Non as the backup here. I don’t love the slow works and she’s going to have to prove that she can be as effective on a better circuit as she was in Texas. Playing her at all though is an indictment on the quality of the rest of this field.
Race 7:
It seems like everything has come up roses for Mark Casse at this meet thus far as he’ll start the week with 18 winners from 43 starters (42%) at this meet. For as many things that have gone right for this barn, a lot has gone wrong for Gin’s Beach Road (#5) in her first two starts at this meet. She was in tight early, but rallied well to be third in December at this N1X allowance condition. She came back and had a brutal start last out where she was roughed up on both sides. She was at the back of the pack while traveling well, but she had to slam on the brakes as the post time favorite nearly went down after clipping heels nearing the turn. I thought it was an exceptional effort to get up to be 3rd. She’ll need a cleaner break and the law of averages says she’s going to get that here. I don’t trust the favorite, Shanett (#9) to carry her speed at this level, so I think she has a great chance to run her down late. The backup for me here is R Pretty Kitty (#1) on the rail for Steve Manley. She ran well at this level 12 days ago, finishing a game 4th. This is a relatively quick turnaround for this condition, but I actually like that a little bit while making her second start off the layoff.
Race 8: The $150K Downthedustyroad Breeders’ Stakes:
A field of nine signed up for the featured race today, but barring anything weird happening, this is a two horse race since Hush It Honey (#2) and Haulin Ice (#8) are in a different class than the other seven runners. Haulin Ice cut her teeth here back in 2024, winning three of her first five starts, and finishing second in the other two. She was privately purchased after the meet ended and she’s been campaigned by Saffie Joseph ever since. Since joining his barn, she has six stakes wins, five of which came against open company, and two of which were graded stakes victories. When Joseph brought her back here, she was an easy winner in all three starts, including a six length romp in this race. She’s a very good and sound horse, as she’s been racing consistently since her January 2024 debut, and not really taking any serious time off during that span. She was good enough to make the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint even though she finished off the board. She came back with a strong effort to lose in a photo in a stakes race at Gulfstream in her last start. She is going to be awfully tough in this race. Hush It Honey has faced off against Haulin Ice twice in her career and they’ve split their decisions, with this mare getting the better of her in the Rainbow Miss Stakes back in 2024. Haulin Ice returned the favor when beating her in an open N1X allowance that year. However, since then, Hush It Honey has only raced four times, with a few large gaps in between starts. She was last seen in November at Churchill and she’s coming back here today for her first start of the meet. Like Haulin Ice, she loves competing on this oval. I think she’s a lot better than the other seven, but unless Haulin Ice lays an egg, I think it’s much more likely that this mare is the runner-up.
Race 9:
The $5 Late Double starts off with a $32K N2L claiming race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. There;s not many races where I think you have a reasonable chance of getting a price, but this might be one of them. Teetotal (#7) catches the eye while dropping in class this afternoon. She broke her maiden in maiden allowance company at Prairie Meadows three starts ago. She ended her 2025 season there with a 5th place finish in allowance company. She tried the N1X condition here, and with a $115K purse, it’s hard to blame the connections for shooting their shot. She was outclassed that day and now she drops in for a tag for the first time. Bold Boss (#6) breaks in the stall next door and she’s another one that broke her maiden in a maiden special weight race on a lesser circuit. She has faded in her first two two starts against winners, but I’m hoping that she can relax a little better in her second start off the layoff. She wasn’t terrible last out at this level, so I could see a forward move out of her. Kissin Cash (#10) is a longer priced option that might have some upside in this race. She was claimed for $30K when breaking her maiden four starts ago. She has failed to hit the board in her first three starts against winners, but all three of those races came against better competition. She missed the break last out when running into Shanett, who was huge that day. That one runs in the previous race and even though I didn’t pick her on top, a win from her would be flattering to this Shancelot filly.
Race 10:
Arkansas bred $40K maiden claimers will end the afternoon going 1 1/16 miles. Fleetwood Jack (#10) makes his third start off the layoff and looks to perform better after having a rough go of things last out in a maiden special weight race. Blinkers are going on for the first time as this Tapiture colt drops in for a tag for the first time. I do think his last effort was better than it looks on paper. Spooky Action (#11) is coming out of the same race. He is making his third career start this afternoon and his second off a layoff. Joel Rosario taking the mount feels like a positive signal. On deeper tickets,Willy Cuts (#9) is a short priced runner that is routing for the first time. He’s been fairly consistent, which does bode well. However, he will be doing something new today, so I don’t want to take too short of a price on him.
2025-26 Meet Statistics
Top Pick Winners: 42/215 (19.5%, $326.20 $1.52 ROI)
