Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Friday 3/27/26 – By Eric Solomon

Oaklawn opted to move the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes to the day before the Arkansas Derby this year to have this Kentucky Oaks prep anchor a very strong Friday card. The Fantasy will go off as the 11th of 12 races today. The Matron Stakes for filly and mare sprinters will be also contested this afternoon. First post for this super-sized card will be set for 12:30 (CDT). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The Fantasy day program begins with a $35K maiden claiming race for Arkansas breds going 1 ⅛ miles. It’s rare to see state bred horses here going this distance. When looking at the pedigree of Irish Guard (#1), the added distance should be welcome. He’s sired by Double Irish, who was sired by Tapit. The dam sire is the 1998 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner, Awesome Again. He was third when routing for the first time with state bred $20K maiden claimers in his last try. He has enough early foot to control this pace and lull this field to sleep. I think he’s better than his eight rivals in this race. I’ll back up with No Kid of Mine (#4)making his third career start this afternoon. He showed some improvement when routing for the first time in his last start. He paired his first two Beyer figures, so there’s reason to believe he could take a strep forward in this spot. 

Race 2:

This $12,500 starter allowance race is open to four year olds and up that have started for a $12,500 claiming tag or less in one of their last two starts. That was the same condition that Unload (#1) exploited last time out when winning impressively. The dam for that one was a full sister to Untapable. This one has some back class, but I don’t love the rail and I think it’s asking a lot for him to back up that effort while coming back in 14 days. I’ll go with his stablemate, Brilliant Man (#7) as the top pick. He’s been consistent, despite struggling a bit here in his last start. He was sharp two back though and he has good efforts against strong fields in the past. Camp Daddy (#8) breaks from the stall next door, and he’s worth considering as well. He has some tactical speed and he’s making his first start off the Edgar Espinoza claim. Cristian Torres taking the mount is a plus and I think he can improve for this barn who does well with new claims in their first start for them. Beyond Best (#3) is a live longshot in this race. He missed the break when he finished about seven lengths behind the favorite last time out. He was sharper in his start two back and he had strong efforts here in 2025. Todd Jordan’s horses have struggled at this meet, so we should be able to get a price close to his 12-1 morning line. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $16K N2L claiming race. After pulling up and being a voided claim in a $32K N2L claiming race, I’m not rushing to take a short price with She Called (#2) in this spot. She was getting back to better form prior to that race, but I’m not convinced that he’s going to be all that on the drop in class today. Bee Bluff (#3) is the top pick for me in this race. She started to put things together last summer, breaking her maiden in a $40K maiden claimer at Delaware two back. She came back at this level here and caught a sloppy and sealed course and never got involved that day after getting bumped pretty hard out of the gate. I think there is some upside after getting the race over the track. Nandina (#7) is the other runner that will be on my tickets in this spot. She was claimed last week in a winning effort with $12,500 maiden claimers in her last start. That race was her second start after a 28 month layoff. This is a quick turnaround for her new connections, but she’s been fairly consistent. Cristian Torres comes back for her first start against winners, but this is not a very inspiring group. 

Race 4:

Seven are entered in this N2L allowance race going one mile. The Fair Grounds shipper, Favorite Day (#6) figures to be tough in this spot. He broke his maiden in strong fashion when beating a nice maiden allowance group in New Orleans. He tried two turns and put forth a good effort to be second to Reagan’s Honor, who ran a monster race that day. That colt is a three year old that beat older runners in that race and he may be eyeing a stakes race sooner than later. I think he’s the one to beat in this race. I’ll consider using Miracle Mark (#1) as a backup as opposed to Barb (#2), the morning line favorite. Miracle Mark had the misfortune of running into Nu What’s New in an allowance race last month. That horse ran his eyeballs out that day, winning by over 12 lengths. This gelding was making his first start since November when he faced a strong field on the Breeders’ Cup undercard at Del Mar. While he’s been sharper on the turf, he’s better than his last few tries. I think he makes sense as a horse to improve in this spot today. 

Race 5:

I’m taking a price here and making Hawks Creek (#5) the top pick in this beaten $12,500 claimer. While he’s done most of his work on the turf in his career, his dirt form is better than it appears. His last race wasn’t great on paper, but he had a few notable spots of trouble. He was advancing nicely before having to slam on the brakes going into the turn. He lost a ton of forward momentum, but still was able to continue to gain. He had to move out into the 6 or 7 path in the stretch as there was nowhere for him to advance. The stops and starts definitely took their toll. He is first off the claim today and should be more effective in this race today. Bettera (#4) is also making his first start of the claim this afternoon. Peter Miller has had a strong meet thus far and he had a nice winner yesterday first off the claim. He’s another one that has several turf efforts and both of his wins came on the grass. However, he also boasts good enough form on the dirt to contend at this level and he’s finished in the money in three of four local tries. Drum Roll Please (#10) continues to drop in class to figure where he belongs at this point in his career. His efforts in starter allowance company weren’t terrible, but he was facing much better horses. He’s getting more class relief than anyone in this field, which is fair to point out. He hasn’t won a race on the dirt since winning the Jerome Stakes back in early 2024. This is a wide open group and he does fit nicely here as well. 

Race 6:

This is another restricted claiming race, this one three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. I thought Higginsville (#2) could be a bit of a sneaky play in this race. He made his first start in 10 months last month in a sprint on a sloppy and sealed course. He’s better at two turns as that race was about stretching out his legs. He’s also been more productive on a fast course. He’s run some sharp races here in the past. Rebel Moon (#4) is another runner that could be trending in the right direction for this race. He’s making his third start off the layoff this afternoon for Al Cates. He had some traffic woes and was forced to steady in his last start where he looked sharper than he did in his first try back. French Knight (#10) ships back to Hot Springs after a third place finish against better foes at the Fair Grounds. McPeek seems to have struggled to find a good spot for this one. This is a steep drop in class, but he’s going to have to overcome the outside post. He’s worth using as a backup in this spot. 

Race 7:

Papa Yo (#6) looks for his third straight score on this course today for Team Asmussen. He has good tactical speed in a race where there isn’t a ton of other speed. He has 8 wins in 20 career tries, so he knows how to win races. He is a bit of an all-or-nothing type, but he typically shows up when he’s well-spotted. He’s a perfect 2-2 at this nine furlong distance that he’ll be asked to get today. Shepherd (#7) is also looking for his third consecutive score in this open $40K-$35K claimer. He came here last out after a win at the Fair Grounds. He handled his business beating an overmatched group of $24K N3L claimers that day. This is a decent step up in class and he;s making his first start off the claim. I think he’s worth considering though. Quality Chic (#4) had no shot in the Pig Trail Overnight Stakes going 12 furlongs on the dirt here at the beginning of the month. He has been sharper in the past at this level though. He’s a little sneaky in here if he can rebound from that abysmal effort last out. 

Race 8:

The Late Pick-5 begins with a $45K-$40K N2Y claiming race. This looks like a very good spot for Egliese (#9), breaking from the outside stall. He was a voided claim when he won in gate to wire fashion last out with open $30K-$25K claimers. While that’s not always a great sign, the fact that he drilled a 46:2 workout here last week tells me that he’s no worse for wear going into this race. He’s trending up and when he’s right, he’s really good. While at 4-1 in a race like this, I might make him a hard single, there is enough uncertainty to make sure that there are some backup options. Frack Baby (#5) is a big longshot in this spot.. However, when he’s racing at the right level, he can be a tough customer. He was in over his head when trying the one mile distance last out in allowance company. This is a reasonable drop in class today. Top Gun Tommy (#8) will be a much shorter price in this race, but he was claimed from a higher percentage barn to a trainer that doesn’t not have great numbers first off the claim. He has been in good enough form to respect him in this race, but 2-1 is way too short of a number for me to be comfortable with. 

Race 9, The $250K Matron Stakes:

While the very talented Arkansas bred, Haulin Ice (#6) is the headline in this six furlong stakes sprint, she’s not a lock to retain her title in this race. She was so good in the Downthedustyroad Breeders’ Stakes last out for Arkansas breds, but she faced absolutely nothing in that spot. She is going to be getting a much stiffer test today and she’ll be under fire early with early speedsters like Asternia (#4), Me and Molly McGee (#5) and Jersey Pearl (#7) surrounding her. I think she can still win the battle among these ladies, but I think Foie Gras (#9) has been really sharp at this meet and I’m going to pick her to win the war. She’s settled off the pace to score in a pair of overnight stakes at this meet. She’s getting a real class test today but with her post and her running style, she should have every chance to run down the first Arkansas bred millionaire. Haulin Ice is too good not to use, but I also think there’s not a chance that she goes off at her 5-2 morning line. 6-5 or lower feels more likely and at those odds, I think it’s worth trying to beat her. Wondrous (#2) is a deeper saver for me in here. This well bred Uncle Mo filly is a half to Maxfield. She won her debut on Tapeta at Turfway early last year and in her 5th career try, she looked very sharp winning a N1X allowance race at the Fair Grounds. This is a big step up, but I think with her pedigree, she’ll be able to make up some ground on the front-runners. I think a second or third place finish is more likely than a win, but I think she’s a nice, under the radar type in here. 

Race 10:

A perfect dozen filled the entry box for this $16K N2L claiming race. Forty Love (#9) has been a popular face at the claim box this season and Dan Ward becomes the new trainer of record after claiming him last out. He had trouble at the break and had to go wide late. He ran into a horse that ran a monster race two back when he was in for $12,500. This is probably the right level for him and he’s due to have some better racing luck. I think he’s better than this group. War Munny (#5) is a live longshot in this race, getting back to a fast track after two straight efforts in the mud. Prior to that he struggled when going one mile on a fast track. His last fast track sprint was his maiden score and he’s been working out well in the AM when the course has been dry. There are some things to like, especially at longer odds here. Springtown (#1) is the kind of horse that might be better suited for the bottom rungs of an exacta or trifecta. However, he was sharp at a price at this level last out when making his first start off the Chris Hartman claim. There’s reason to believe that he’s got some things figured out with him. 

Race 11, The Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes:

A trip to the Kentucky Oaks is on the line in the top race of the meet for three year old fillies. This was already a short field, but this race was dealt a major blow last night when it was announced that Explora (#6) is not going to race. That leaves a maximum of five starters with three of them trained by Mark Casse. There’s not of early speed signed on this race, but I think the versatility of Counting Stars (#3) will go a long way here. She was close to the pace when she won the Year’s End Stakes three starts ago and she is capable of closing from farther off the pace when that’s required. She proved last out in the Honeybee that her dismal effort in the Martha Washington two starts back was a complete fluke. She’s had a strong meet and I think she’s going to formally punch her ticket to the Oaks here. Sticker Shock (#5) is coming off a strong allowance score here in her last start. Unless Ramon Vazquez is instructed to put the pedal to the metal with Empath (#2) in the early stages, this filly should be able to either set the pace or sit right off it. She’ll take money because of Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz, but I don’t want her as the favorite in this race. 

Race 12:

We caught a nice price in the nightcap yesterday and I’ll go hunting for another one in this state bred $20K N2L claiming race for fillies and mares that will close out this large card. Morally Complex (#7) has three ugly races in a row, but she was in over her head in each of those races. She ran into Haulin Ice in the Downthedustyroad Breeders’ Stakes last out. She had no business in that race, and there’s definitely a question of what this filly can or can’t do at this point. I do think it’s worth pointing out that she typically runs a solid race when she’s racing at the right level of competition. She broke her maiden on this course last March and she ran credible races on the turf at Canterbury over the summer. There’s a bit of a leap of faith that she can get back to her best, but this is not the strongest group for this condition. Lady Belle (#8) has one start and one win , going gate to wire on debut last month for Danny Pish. This is a reasonable spot for her second start and she improves just a little bit, she should be smiling for the camera in the Winner’s Circle. J J’s True Bet (#2) is the morning line favorite and another runner that is worth including on your tickets. Her last two have been shaky, but her effort three back would likely beat this field by close to double digit lengths. She fell apart after dueling in allowance company last out so the class relief will be helpful to her cause. 

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 73/365 (20.0%, $572.60 $1.57 ROI)