Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday 12/13/25 – By Eric Solomon

There’s a stakes race planned for each day of racing during the Holiday Season here at Oaklawn and the Ring the Bell Stakes this afternoon is a good one. Eight sprinters are entered including Skelly, who boasts an impressive 10 for 12 record on this oval here in Hot Springs. Much like yesterday’s card, there are full fields and plenty of juicy wagering opportunities on this card. First post is set for 12:30 (CDT). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The first Saturday program of the meet begins with a $12,500 maiden claiming race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. Pernicious (#10) in the outside stall gets the first call of the day for me. She’s making her first start since being transferred to Heather Irion’s barn. This Bird Song filly was generally competitive when facing fellow Hoosier breds in Indiana. She’s had some gaps in her running lines, so the fact that she is coming back in a month after a respectable effort in the slop is encouraging to see. The favorite, Can’tdealwithit (#9) is also a logical horse to use in this spot. She debuted at Los Alamitos last year, finishing third behind a runaway winner in a $50K maiden claiming race there. She went to the sidelines and wasn’t seen on track again until the end of the Del Mar summer meet. She ran at that same level and was never a factor in a turf sprint race. She’s back on the dirt today and getting significant class relief for Adam Kitchingman, who has some horses based here this season. 

Race 2: 

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $12,500 N2L claiming race. This not the strongest field for this condition, so I landed on Miss Tifeye (#7), who is getting a lot more class relief than it appears that she’s getting on paper. She went off at close to 50-1 in a $20K N2L claiming race at Churchill last month and that field was significantly more talented than this group. She was bumped fairly hard at the break, forcing her to the back of the field in the early stages of that one. She finished with interest, but she covered a lot of ground while going widest of all on the turn. While I don’t love that she was claimed for $30K three starts back and now she’s running in a race with a $12,500 claiming tag. However, this is probably where this three year old filly belongs at this point in her career. Her figures have been a little light since coming back from an extended layoff in September. However, I can chalk that up to a rough trip last out and faltering at two turns against a sharper group two back Luis Saez taking the mount is a plus, so I think this is the right spot for her to break through for the second time. C. C. Foxii (#9) ships here from Delaware after a respectable third with $7,500-$6,500 N2L claimers there in October. She’s one of five in this field that are moving up in class. She was trending up for Greg Compton as the meet at Delaware went on. Her lone start on this course last spring was one of her better races, so I could see her continuing to move forward despite climbing up the class ladder. I think there a decent amount of cheap in this race which could make things difficult for both the second time starter, Spirit to Inspire (#1) and the morning line favorite, Coldasice (#6). Spirit to Inspire was really good when defeating a hapless $6,250 maiden claiming field at Hawthorne on debut. If she can run back to that race, she’s going to be tough. However, she had everything her own way that afternoon and I’m convinced that is going to be the case here. Coldasice met a soft $12,500 maiden claiming field here back in March and was able to break her maiden that day. She finished 4th in her first start at this level before going to the sidelines for six months. She resurfaced at Los Alamitos in September and ran okay in an $8K N2L claimer there, which was the last time she competed. Kelly Bainum brings her back and she was assigned the role of the morning line favorite. I don’t love her at these odds and I think the rail horse makes her assignment tougher in this spot. Both of these fillies will be on the C line for me as deeper savers. I might upgrade them if speed is holding well on Opening Day, and I’d certainly upgrade one if the other one defected for some reason. 

Race 3:

A field of nine has been assembled for this $50K starter allowance going six furlongs. In addition to competing with a $50K tag or less at least one time, horses must also be eligible for the N3L condition to run in this race. This is a tough race to make heads or tails of. Incursion (#5) feels like a horse that should be in the mix here, but I have a big problem with this horse. When watching back the replays of his last five races, it’s very clear that this horse struggles to switch leads. He struggled to do that in both of his victories where he was just much better than the fields he was up against. He’s been facing $30K, N3L starter allowance types in Kentucky in his last three starts, and he was favored in all three races. He had some traffic troubles at Ellis, but he had every chance to win his last two starts with ease, but he’s struggled to run straight and keep that same momentum when he’s on the wrong lead. So now he’s facing tougher company in his return to Hot Springs. He is still running competitive races, so I’ll be using him underneath in the vertical exotics, but he’s a tough sell for me in the win spot. Hailstorm (#9) is coming out of the toughest races and he’s performed well since moving into David Jacobsen’s barn. He just missed at 20-1 in a nice allowance race at Ellis two back and he was a solid 5th in a very good N2X allowance race at Keeneland in his last try. He was sold for $55K in May at auction after struggling in his first 14 starts. I’m a little concerned that he’s 0-5 on this course, but I’ll wager that Jacobsen has figured out some things with this son  of Gun Runner. Kunan (#3) feels like a live longshot after a strong effort with $20K N2L claimers on the dirt at Keeneland last month. That wasn’t the strongest field for that condition in Kentucky, but he handled his business like a pro. Greg Compton claimed him from that race and while he’s not great first off the claim, he certainly is adequate. His barn has had a strong year and I think they have high expectations for their runners at this meet. I see it as a positive sign that he’s running in a protected spot here. Miracle Worker (#2) is the narrow morning line favorite in this spot. He’s a boom or bust type that had a big win on this oval back in March. He tried the turf for the first time in his most recent start, and while that effort wasn’t terrible, sprinting on the dirt seems to be what this Into Mischief horse does the best. He’s more of a backup for me in this race. 

Race 4:

Beaten $10K claimers will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in this race which starts the Mid-Card Pick-4. To be eligible for this race, a horse must either have never won three times or has not won a race in six months. There’s a few suspect droppers in this race, notably Rock’n a Halo (#8) and Eldon’s Prince (#10). I’m really struggling with what to make of Rock’n a Halo. Most of his work has come on the turf. To me, I think Sharp Spark (#3) is the one to beat. While he is technically dropping in class, the circuit switch from Remington to Oaklawn mitigates that class relief. However, he’s the most consistent runner among a group where many are wildly inconsistent. His lone start on this course came in a strong N1X allowance race, so while the outcome wasn’t great, his effort was good enough to win at this level. Ember (#2) is moving from open claiming races in Kentucky to restricted company here, so there is clear class relief being offered. He was claimed for $12,500 two starts back, so this drop is definitely fair game. He’s been at his best when he’s been closer to the front in the early stages. He’s been unable to secure decent early position in his last several races though. There is not a wealth of early foot signed up for this contest and his inside draw should allow him to find a spot closer to the lead today. While I don’t like the draw, Aspiring Comedian (#12) is a longshot in this race that has an outside chance if some things fall his way. He improved throughout the summer at Delaware, but went off form somewhat this fall. Dan Ward claimed him two back for $12,500 in a starter allowance race where he went off at 56-1. Clearly he thought this was a horse that fit some conditions down here where he’s based in the winter. He ran third in the slop at Remington last month, so if Ward has been able to get this one to improve, this feels like a spot where he can show that. 

Race 5: 

State bred two year olds will spring six furlongs in this maiden special weight contest. You don’t see too many Arkansas bred horses selling for $145K, but that was the case with the morning line favorite, Honey’s to Blame (#12). He ran three times on the NYRA Circuit this summer, improving each time in open maiden special weight company. He was 7th in a dirt sprint where he faced some nice horses at the Spa. He moved to a two turn turf race there where he finished 3rd. Despite that solid effort, he went off at 43-1 in his next start at Belmont at the Big A, where he came within a length of pulling off a big upset. He’s been away for three months and now he returns to a dirt sprint where he’s getting massive class relief. While he might be better on the turf, I think he’s improved enough on the lawn to come back to run a winning race with this group. Since his best races have been on the turf, I do want to use another horse on the A line in this race. Sioux Empire (#9) is coming here after a pair of solid races in open maiden special weight company at Delaware. He got tired in the late stages in his debut where he was beaten by Big Cuddle, who came back to win the Maryland Million Nursery Stakes in his next start. The 4th palace finisher from that race, who he was better than, came back to break his maiden two starts ago and recently finished third in an open stakes race at Penn National. He came back to finish third again in a one mile maiden race there. He was absolutely loaded with nowhere to go. A seam finally opened up for him along the rail at the top of the stretch. He was gradually advancing, but the horse to his outside made things uncomfortable for him, forcing him to switch to the outside. The runner-up from that race came back to win at Laurel last month, so he’s been facing solid fields in the First State. While the fields he was facing don’t compare to the groups that the top pick saw in New York, I still see this move as getting some class relief. If the top pick isn’t loving the main track, I think he gets it done.

Race 6:

The Late Pick-5 begins with a $30K-$25K claiming race going six furlongs. American Xperiment (#8) is an interesting price play in this race, shipping here after a dull effort in optional claiming/N4X allowance company at Delta last month. He was sharp with $40K open claimers at long odds two back at Keeneland though, and he has plenty of one turn races that would make him competitive at this level here. I’m generally willing to forgive horses that don’t run their best at bullring tracks like Delta, especially when they’ve shown ability on more traditional ovals when competing at better circuits. Payne (#1) is nearing the end of his racing career, but this ten year old gelding can still run. He made 12 starts in 2025, winning five of them. He loves coming to Hot Springs, winning 7 of 17 times on this oval, which accounts for more than half of his career wins. He racked up a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure here in the spring, and while his form has tailed off a bit, he is still fit and should be ready to fire at this level today. On deeper tickets, Got Thunder (#5) is worth considering. Trisha Duncan has had this one on the sidelines since an off the board finish in an optional claiming/N1X allowance race here in April. He was a voided claim that afternoon, so the layoff makes sense. His AM drills since returning here last month seem to indicate that he is fit enough to make his first start back. Duncan has had menial experience over the last five years with horses off this kind of a layoff, but this one fits with this group if he’s ready to run.

Race 7: 

An overflow field of 14 filled the entry box for this maiden special weight contest for two year olds going 1 1/16 miles. I like Hoss N Boss (#7) to run a big race in this spot. He has two starts under his belt, finishing off the board both tries in Kentucky. He faced a strong group at Churchill when going seven furlongs on debut. He put up a decent speed figure when beaten by a speedy first timer. The runner up from that race validated that effort when winning in maiden allowance company at this distance in his last try. They tried to stretch this out on the dirt, but he failed to draw in off the AE list. The backup plan was to try the turf at this distance. He showed some early interest before fading late that day. The dam was graded stakes placed and one of her foals was a two turn debut winner on this course. Chris Hartman has won 22% of the time with runners going from turf to dirt over the last five years. I think he’ll appreciate both the surface switch and the distance here and having that two turn experience could give him a fitness edge. The morning line favorite is Our Magical Moon (#10) for Mark Casse. Live Oak Plantation paid $500K for this PA Bred son of Good Magic. That’s a large chunk of change for a horse that is bred in the Keystone State. He has three credible races under his belt, explaining the short number. The dam has foaled six horses and while one of those runners was a Grade 3 winner, none of her foals have a two turn win. Perhaps the added stamina from Good Magic will help, but at short odds, I see him as more of a backup and horse to include underneath. A longer priced to consider is I’m Worthy (#1) breaking from the rail for Ken McPeek. McPeek typically has some firsters that fire at this meet and he’s good with getting horses to win at longer distances on debut. He scored with Authentic Cat on debut in the meet opener yesterday at this same distance. Mo Town has had 2 winners from 13 first time starters in route races. While I don’t love the rail for first timer starters, it’s not such bad a place to be at two turns.

Race 8, The $150K Ring the Bell Stakes:

This is a fun six furlong sprint with some fast horses who have some big efforts on this course. No one has a better local track record than Skelly (#4), who returns to Arkansas after three subpar races in Kentucky. We only saw this six year old gelding twice at the 24-25 meet, but he made quite the impression in those races, winning both by open lengths, while posting some big league Beyer Speed Figures (107 and 110). He has 10 wins in 12 starts on this oval and he’s earned triple digit Beyer Speed Figures in 7 of those races. He had a ton of problems in his lone off the board finish here, which came all the way back in 2022. Ricardo Santana Jr, has been in the irons for every local victory and he’ll be reunited with this talented gelding this afternoon. The big question will be whether or not the return to his favorite place will equate to a return to better form. If he does go off at odds close to his 5-2 morning line price, I’m definitely on board with backing him. Surprisingly, he’s not the morning line favorite, as those honors went to Roll On Big Joe (#6). Assuming this field stays intact, I’d be very surprised if that one goes off as the post time favorite. While his last effort was really good, he bounced hard in his last start that followed up a triple digit Beyer Figure. I think Skelly is the favorite and if his odds dip closer to even money, I’d be more inclined to take a shot with another horse that thrives on this course, Banishing (#7). He’s a five year old gelding that was also very good here last season. He romped in the Byerly Turk Overnight Stakes here in January. He was able to carry his speed to two turn races, losing by a narrow head in the Grade 3 Razorback and then taking home the trophy in the Oaklawn Mile. He was productive after leaving Arkansas, narrowly missing in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes and then winning a pair of stakes races at Ellis and Charles Town. I thought it was a little odd to try him in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint instead of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, and he wasn’t very sharp in that race where he was buried in traffic for the majority of that contest. He’s back on his home course and I think if someone is going to run down Skelly, he’s going to be the one to do it. These are the two I want in this race, but I’ll make Banishing the top pick by a narrow margin, since I do think the price is going to be better.

Race 9: 

We have another bulky field of two year old maidens here, this time, going six furlongs. Note that both Reclamation (#13) and Witchwaydidhego (#14) are on the AE list, but they were entered in the body of the field in a race with an identical condition tomorrow, so I’ll be under the assumption that they’ll be staying in the barn today, even if they were to have the chance to run. Himothy (#2) was hammered at the windows after some strong workouts in the morning at Churchill last month. He sent the tempo and was caught late by a horse that had some races under his belt. He’s had a pair of solid maintenance works since coming here and certainly feels like the one to beat. However, his 7-5 morning line figure and the fact that he was 4-5 on debut, suggests to me that he’s going to be going into the gate at odds of even money or below. His last race was too good not to use him on most of the multi-race wagers, however, I do think there are others that are interesting in this spot. I’ll roll the dice and make Like and Subscribe (#5) the top pick. He’s one of a handful of horses that Adam Kitchingman has brought here from his Southern California base. He was working well at San Luis Rey prior to shipping here and he certainly seemed to handle the track fine when working here last week. His sire Bolt d’Oro is getting 17% winners with his first timers in dirt sprints. This one has the look of a live longshot here. Fatguyinalittlecoat (#3) was sharp on debut two back at Keeneland in an auction maiden special weight race, but he struggled last out in the slop at Churchill at that same level. He moves into open company today and also makes his first start for Mike Maker as Lindsay Schultz was his trainer of record for his first two tries. If the odds disparity between him and Himothy remains the same as the morning line (7-5 vs. 3-1), I feel this Code of Honor gelding will be a better value play. 

Race 10: 

We’ll close out Day 2 with a very nice N1X allowance race for three year olds and up, sprinting six furlongs. Oy Gevald (#8) is very interesting to me in this contest. His form is a little muddied with some dull efforts in turf races and two turn races, but his one turn dirt races are very sharp. He ran well in a maiden allowance race at this distance here last spring, finishing third behind Cornucopian, a pricey Bob Baffert runner that came here to dominate in gate to wire fashion. He ran okay in his first route, but he struggled as the favorite after a dicey start in a maiden race on Arkansas Derby day. He was given some time off and he came back at Hawthorne in the summer. His two turf races were forgettable, but he was really good in both dirt races. When watching his N1X allowance win there last out, I’m envisioning a similar kind of trip for him in this race, especially with what should be a decent battle for the early lead. I think he’s a better horse today than he was when he was racing here last spring. Ramon Vazquez had four winners on Opening Day and he gets the assignment for the first time today. The backup for me in this spot needs help to get into this race. Raise the Bar (#14) is stuck on the AE list, but I think he’s a three year old that is trending in the right direction. He was a winner on debut when breaking from the rail in a 12 horse field in a 4 ½ furlong maiden allowance race at Keeneland last spring. He was transferred from Ward to Asmussen and that adjustment was tough as that one was bad in some stakes races here and at Keeneland. However, he got on track in a state bred race at Lone Star and then he was very sharp in N1X company at Remington in his last start. He’s always had a high ceiling and this will be another step up in class. However, I do think the confidence gained from those races will be important moving forward. 

FInal 2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 88/432 (20.4%, $771.20, $1.79 ROI)