Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday, 2/7/26 – By Eric Solomon

The Saturday program at Oaklawn Park is highlighted by the Grade 3 Bayakoa Stakes for fillies and mares looking to take the next step toward the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Stakes here in April. The Alabama winner, Nitrogen, makes her four year old debut in that race. In addition, there’s a very good allowance race (Race 4) which features the 2026 debut of the 2025 Arkansas Derby winner, Sandman. Both of those runners are trained by Mark Casse, who is having a remarkable meet thus far. Going into the day, Casse has saddled 30 horses here this season. 15 of them have found the Winner’s Circle, including four of them yesterday. He saddled the winners of both the Martha Washington Stakes and the Southwest Stakes. In addition to these stars, he’ll also be sending runners in the 3rd, 5th, and 8th races. First post for this 11 race card is scheduled for 12:00 (CST).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Bayakoa Day starts off with a$40K-$35K N3L claiming race for four year olds and up going six furlongs. The morning line favorite in this race is Suncroft (#4), and while he’s a definite one to include underneath in the vertical exotics, I don’t trust him to hold on to the lead in the final furlong. Frack Baby (#1) is a much longer price in this race and he’s coming out of the same race where he finished a little less than three lengths behind the morning line favorite after breaking slowly. Blinkers go on for the first time for his third start of this current form cycle. He showed more promise than he’s shown in his last two tries. Greg Compton has had a miserable meet so far, but I like the class drop for this runner. The law of averages suggests that things are going to turn around for this barn at this meet soon, so this feels like a good spot to get in front of that. Incursion (#5) makes a lot of sense in this race as a horse that could get rolling late. He was a distant third while getting a wide trip when facing Gettinby, who ran a monster race that day. He had much sharper efforts in Kentucky prior to that race, so I think that with the class drop, he could be very dangerous in this race. On deeper tickets, I’ll toss in Drewvictory (#2). He’s going to need to take a step forward to win this race. However, he showed a lot of promise this summer at Evangeline. He needed his first start off the layoff when facing Speed King in allowance company. Several of the runners in this race ran better that day, but he was never going to compete with that one on that day. He shipped to Delta for his next start, where he ran better, but still not great. It’s worth noting that race was contested at two turns, which is something I think he’s not all that interested in doing. He makes his third start off the layoff and has been gelded since his last try. I think he’s a little sneaky in this race. 

Race 2:

Open $8K claimers will go one mile in the race that kicks off the first of three Pick-4 wagers on this program. Wartime Hero (#6) wins a lot of races and he comes here off a strong six race stretch where he has three wins and three second place finishes at Lone Star and Remington. He’s started 36 times in his career, finishing 1st in 10 of those starts. However, he’s only 2-19 here at Oaklawn and he’s 8-17 everywhere else. That tells me that when the competition is stiffer, even at lower levels here in Arkansas, he’s not as competitive. His streak is likely going to lead to him going into the starting at odds below his 2-1 morning line. I think he’s a horse to play against. Red Mountain (#8) is the top pick for me. He’s making his first start since being transferred to Ingrid Mason’s barn. She has quietly done well with the few runners that she’s brought here. She also has a decent track record with new acquisitions. The horse isn’t particularly flashy, but he is more consistent and he’s taking a decent drop in class this afternoon. Khozy My Boy (#12) is one of the more versatile runners in this race, and that should come in handy as he’s being tasked with trying to win this race while breaking the far outside post. He’s solid at this distance and on this course. I’d feel good if he can tuck in somewhere in the middle of the pack in the early stages, without having to concede too much ground going into the first turn. On deeper tickets, I’ll toss in Booming (#1). He makes his third start off the layoff and he’s going to have to improve to score here. He was caught in a ton of traffic when facing some of these runners last time out. He broke from post 2 that day so drawing the rail here isn’t ideal. I do like that he did advance once he had some room to run, albeit that it happened way too late in the game. We’ll see if Walter De La Cruz learned anything about this one as he’ll get the return call today. 

Race 3:

Three year olds will go 1 1/16 miles in this $50K starter allowance. In addition to having to have started for a $50K claiming tag or run in a maiden auction race, to be eligible to compete in this spot, a horse must also qualify for a N1X allowance race. There’s going to be some short prices on this card, and some are better bets than others. Misinformation (#3) is one of those that will be a very short number in this race. He’s dropping in class after finishing second to Bricklin in a N1X allowance race here last month. That runner entered in the Southwest Stakes yesterday, but was forced to scratch. This Essential Quality colt started slow, but Jose Ortiz hopped aboard while he was also getting some class relief and he seemed to have this one figured out. Both races with him in the irons were wins by over five lengths. He ran credible races when facing N1X allowance types in his last two starts. I think Casse knows this one is not Derby bound and he’s also not stakes quality yet. While he would likely be a short price again at that level, Casse is giving this horse a chance to build some confidence while getting another shot at two turns. I think he’s just best than his opponents in this protected spot. The backup for me in this race is Highly Connected (#10), who could improve while trying two turns once again. He tried two turns in maiden allowance company at Keeneland two back. Along with having the misfortune of running into Further Ado, he also had a pretty miserable trip in the early stages and was never close to being involved in the outcome of that one. I do think he could still handle this distance and I liked his come from behind effort to break his maiden with $50K maiden claimers here in his last start. Matt Williams turns to the leading rider, who piloted both stakes winners for Mark Casse yesterday, Cristian Torres. 

Race 4:

Older horses that have either never won four times or have not won $40K in an allowance or stakes race since July 7th, will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in this allowance contest. Sandman (#1) is the big name in this race, making his four year old debut for a barn that has been winning with everything thus far at this meet. While there is no doubt that he is the class of this field, I do have concerns about him getting a trip and being able to get home in time. He ran decent races here, but often came up short. He got a dream scenario with a cutthroat speed duel in front of him in the Arkansas Derby and then his main threat moving early to pounce on the pacesetters. There’s not a ton of speed signed up for this race, so I think the favorite could be vulnerable here. I’ll try to beat him on top with Track Phantom (#6) and Echo Again (#7). Steve Asmussen has had some under the radar runners pay decent prices this week, and this Quality Road horse should be  a large number in this race. He has yet to run back to the races that put him into the Derby as a three year old. He does have speed though and no one else really does in this race. This will be his first time on this oval and I think there’s a good enough chance that he really likes it here. Echo Again is typically better on one turn, but his effort at one mile at the Spa this summer tells me that he can handle the distance if the conditions are right. I don’t think the pace battle will be all that intense, so I ‘m thinking that he could get the jump on Sandman, should my bomb on top throw in the towel at the top of the lane. 

Race 5: 

Another Pick-5 begins with this N1X allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. This feels like a race where I’ll want some coverage. I like both Kerry’s Kiss (#3) and Gowells Delight (#7) a decent bit in this race and I’ll be using both on the A line. I think both fillies have definite ability and the distance won’t be a question for them as it’s going to be for some others here. I’ll give the narrow edge to Gowells Delight. She was good last out until she idled on the lead and faded to be third. She is a multiple graded stakes runner and she’s making her third start off the layoff. I do see her finishing with more enthusiasm in this race. Kerry’s Kiss has never finished worse than third in a two turn race. She broke from post 10 at this level last out and went to the front. She battled hard but was nailed by Zagruhta by the slimmest of margins on the wire. She cleared this condition at Remington two back, but remains eligible for this level here because of the purse structure there. Both of these horses could easily win this race, but both were caught late last time out in races they easily could have won. That ‘s what makes me want to seek out more coverage today. I think both Spun Candy (#1) and Vino Tiempo (#5) are live longshots in this race. Spun Candy is bred to handle two turns, but it’s odd that it took nine starts for her to try a route. She’s had gaps in some running lines, which could explain that delay. She ran a big race in her third start off the layoff when she broke her maiden at Churchill in the summer. She went to the sidelines after that and resurfaced in November. She ran okay when finishing third while facing winners for the first time. She was flat in her local debut last out though. I don’t hate the rail for her first route. Timeform suggests that she has enough early speed to make the lead if Arrieta wants it, but I think I’d like to see her pressing the pace with a pocket trip. Vino Tiempo should be a bigger price and she’s a runner that’s likely better suited for the bottom rungs of the vertical exotics. However, there could be a solid pace to set up her late close in this spot. There’s three horses that are routing for the first time and there are other horses that want to be forward. We saw a few races yesterday where the pace collapsed and a late runner swooped by to score, some of which paid some big payouts. With this Vino Rosso filly, you have an experienced runner that is fairly pace dependent. The course has to also be playing fairly or favoring the outer lanes, which was definitely the case yesterday. 

Race 6:

Fillies and mares will spring six furlongs in this $16K N2L claiming contest. One angle that I am going to start tracking for these lower level claiming races at Oaklawn comes into play with What’s Her Number (#12) in this race. This mare was claimed for $16K at Churchill in June and went to the sidelines for six months after that claim. As a result, as long as she’s competing at a class level at or above the tag she was claimed for, she’s eligible to run twice with a waiver, meaning that she can’t be claimed out of this claiming race. I think the first start off the layoff when running with a waiver is a bit hit or miss, depending on the barn. However, I’m interested in tracking the second start off the layoff when a horse is running with the waiver. When she came back from her layoff, she broke slowly and generally looked like she needed that race. This second start though feels a little bit like a spot where she’ll need to put up one of her better efforts to ensure there’s some value in the claim. This is a sharp barn and her works have been more spirited going into this race than her last. I’m using her on top in this spot. Red Volta (#10) is a bomb in this race, but she is dropping in class for her second start off the layoff., She drew the rail against a much better field last out. She showed a little bit of speed and then faded badly. She’s better than that effort and should be more fit for this spot. Her last three starts in maiden special weight company at Canterbury suggest that she can hang with this field at this level if that same horse that broke her maiden in September can reappear today. At a huge number, I’m willing to risk that chance, especially underneath in the verticals. Ante Up Tony (#7) has three career starts, including a maiden breaking win with $30K-$16K maiden claimers here in her last start. That condition is a little confusing, but it’s basically a $16K maiden claimer where state bred runners get to run with a $30K tag. Draw a line through her second start where she was asked to go two turns against maiden allowance types. She’s going to need to improve, but she is making her first start off the Asmussen claim. This Om filly feels like she could be a little sneaky in here. 

Race 7: 

The Late Pick-5 begins with another restricted claiming race, this one for Arkansas bred $20K N2L claimers. I’m interested in seeing what Unified Usyk (#12) can do at this level. She ran in an open $12,500 N2L claiming race in her local debut. Despite never really being a factor in that race, she ran a better figure that day than she was running at Fairmount. She’s actually getting class relief in this race and she’s making her second start over this course. Scott Becker has win a lot of races in Illinois over the last few years and while that success hasn’t really transferred here, he’s a good horseman and I like the spot for this Unified gelding. Giant Moon (#7) is the morning line favorite in this race after finishing third in a similar spot while racing with the waiver last out. He’s back while competing with a tag and he’s making his second start off a six month layoff. He has every right to move forward in this race.  Time Andbeyond (#1) should be vying with Giant Moon for favoritism when the gate springs open. He was facing open company after leaving here last spring. He ran well when facing state bred maiden claimers, breaking through back in March. He was overmatched in allowance company in his last try with fellow Arky breds. He ran figures that would be competitive at this level when facing open company, but he failed to hit the board in those seven starts. This is a bigger drop in class than it looks to be on paper and he’s another one that figures to be in the mix. 

Race 8: 

The Late Pick-4 begins with a $24K N3L claiming race going 1 1/16 miles. 12 horses are set to go in this slightly unusual condition, and they’ll be headed by Determinedly (#3). He’s 5-2 on the morning line, but with the roll that Mark Casse has been on, it’s hard to envision a scenario where he’s anything greater than 8-5. He’s definitely a player on a true class drop in this race and I think he needs to be on your tickets, especially considering that Casse has won with half of his starters at this meet. It does feel like there will be no value with taking him on top though. I’ll make Hero’s Medal (#1) the top pick in this race. Former leading rider, David Cabrera is back in town looking for new opportunities. He gets the call from Cameron Milligan, who has done well with runners first off the claim thus far in his young training career. He just missed here with beaten $12,500 claimers here. His two wins came on the NYRA circuit, so there was some quality there before he dropped to the claiming ranks. He’s making his second start off the layoff and should be stronger today. If Casse’s runner takes a lot of money at the windows as I suspect he will, the price should be right. There were a few crazy longshots this week and with the interruptions in training due to the bad weather, that could be expected on some level. Perhaps Flying Martini (#4) could be the next wild bomb that blows up the toteboard here. With the exception of his effort in the Minnesota Derby where something clearly was amiss, he’s been good, winning twice and finishing second the other two times. All five of those races came at Canterbury, so how he’ll stack up here remains to be seen. However, if he can stalk the pace and stay involved early, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him hanging around late. 

Race 9, The Grade 3 Bayakoa Stakes:

The star of the afternoon is the Grade 1 winning filly, Nitrogen (#7), who makes her first start after finishing second to Scylla in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Del Mar back in November. She fits well with this field as  I think he can sit a nice stalking trip off both Peignoir (#3) and Quietside (#4). Mark Casse had a huge day yesterday, and his horses at this meet continue to fire. Jose Ortiz opts to ride her instead of Quietside, which is hardly a surprise. I think she’s too good for this group. The backup for me is Miss Authentic (#5), who is coming off a strong effort in a N1X allowance race on this course back in December. Horses sired by Authentic really seem to like racing on this course and we’ve seen some step up and run big races on this oval. She was much the best last time out and the runner up came back to win her next start. She might have some more upside than some of the others and the price should definitely be juicier. 

Race 10:

13 are entered in this optional $62,500 claiming/N2X allowance race, but there will be a maximum of 12 horses that compete. Surveillance (#13) is the morning line favorite, who is stuck on the AE list. I feel like this gelding has lost a step, so I’m rooting for him to get into the body of the field so I can play against him. I think how you feel about Dreaminblue (#11) will dictate how you attack this race. He is coming off a big winning effort in the Sils Overnight Stakes here in December. That race was restricted to horses that have never won an open sweepstakes, so after easily scoring there, I was a little surprised to see that he’s not trying the King Cotton Stakes tomorrow. There are a couple of things to note though. This horse is a gelding, so the black type he’d get from potentially winning a race like that doesn’t really do him any good. The purse of that race is $150K and he’d be facing a tougher group, led by Roll On Big Joe, who was the winner of the Ring the Bell Stakes here in his last start. The purse of this race is $126K, which is not a huge difference when comparing allowance purses to stakes purses in other locales. Another thing to keep in mind is that the Grade 3 Whitmore Stakes is next month at this distance, and that race carries a larger purse of $250K. Despite the fact that race is a Grade 3, there have been years where the King Cotton Stakes comes up tougher because the top runners from that race could possibly be pointed toward a lucrative trip to Dubai for the Golden Shaheen. The next question that I’d ask myself is whether or not I believe that he can run back to his last start where he posted a career top Beyer Figure. He ran two big races here last winter, breaking his maiden impressively in January. He came back at two turns in the Rebel, which didn’t seem to be something that he wanted to do. He went off form for a while while catching some wet courses and trying the turf. He got back on a fast main track and he looked like the horse that he was turning into last season. He has a similar outside draw today and I’m thinking he will be able to back up his last effort and score with this group today. I like everything about Second I D (#1) except his rail draw in this race, and admittedly, I think it makes his assignment much tougher. He won the first three starts of his career, but he’s lost his last four. He was close in two of those races, and I thought his effort in the Ring the Bell at long odds was better than it looks on paper. I’d have him on at least the B line here if he had drawn a little farther off the rail, but I’m not convinced the young rider, Triana, will be able to turn those lemons into lemonade. He’s a deeper saver for me. 

Race 11:

The day ends with a $30K maiden claiming race for three year old fillies going six furlongs. Engagement (#5) could be a runner flying under the radar here. She started twice early in her two year old season, never having an impact in either of her races at Churchill. She was given some time to mature a bit and now she comes back for a higher percentage barn, while also getting blinkers and Lasix for the first time. Armando Hernandez does very well with new acquisitions, in part because he puts these horses in spots where they belong. Her works are good enough to think that she could improve today. Rags (#7) is another horse that could be overlooked in this race. She debuts for Shea Stuart in this race after some respectable drills in the morning. I don’t love that she’s in for a $30K tag despite being purchased for $45K. However, this is not a stellar group and she looks like she belongs with these. Buckeye Favorite (#8) is the morning line favorite, taking a fairly deep drop. She showed some promise in her first two starts, but her last three have not been good. She fits from a figures perspective though. While I’d prefer to take some shots with some prices in this spot, she feels like one that needs to be included on the mutli-race tickets. 

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 30/154 (19.5%, $207.40 $1.35 ROI)