Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday 3/28/26 – By Eric Solomon

Arkansas Derby Day offers a loaded, 14 race card, highlighted by the Grade 1 Derby Prep race. Tens of thousands of local race goers will flock to Oaklawn in hopes of seeing the next Kentucky Derby winner. Three other stakes races support this Marathon afternoon card. The biggest racing day of the year in Arkansas kicks off early, with the first race going off at 11:35 (CDT). 

There will be no live racing tomorrow and with Keeneland opening up on April 3rd, my coverage will shift there. I’ll try to post some thoughts about some of the races as time allows, but this will be the last day of the season that I’ll be writing up the full card analysis. 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

I talk a lot about the various conditions in starter allowance races, and races like are the reason why. This $12,500 starter allowance race is open to fillies and mares that have at least one start for a $12,500 tag or less since the start of 2024. Laura Branigan (#1) won a $12,500 starter allowance race two weeks ago at 17-1, however the condition of that race was open to horses that have run for that $12,500 tag in their last two starts only. To give perspective, five of the eight runners in this race would not have been eligible for the race that she won. There is some decent speed signed on for this race, so I do want to handicap for the possibility of a pace meltdown. If that scenario develops, Miranda’s Rocky (#6) figures to be the one best equipped to take advantage of that. She was a winner last time out when the pace collapsed in a $26K-$23K N2Y claiming race two weeks ago. While she can compete in races where she’s closer to the pace, she’s been at her best when she can unwind a strong late kick from the back of the pack. Talkin’ in Cursive (#7) could be on the pace, but she’s also comfortable stalking the leaders. She ran well last out to narrowly miss in a N1X allowance race. Scott Young is trying to keep her in good form after claiming her two back. One Way Or Another (#2) is more of a B line play for me in this spot. She’s the morning line favorite coming off a strong effort to win in state bred allowance company. She’s a six time winner who has wins in three of her last five starts. She makes sense in this race, although from a class standpoint, it’s hard to figure out how her recent form stacks up at this open level. 

Race 2:

State bred $25K-$20K maiden claimers will sprint six furlongs here. Perfectly Harvey (#1) debuted against similar foes two weeks ago. He was wide when running an even 6th in that race. Ramon Vazquez took the mount that day and he’s back in the saddle today for this son of Harvey Wallbanger. He was best known for pulling off the 29-1 upset in the 2019 Holy Bull Stakes. He was retired in 2021 and he hasn’t sired many runners to make it to the track. This gelding was the third runner, but he has sired a nice Texas bred filly who was two state bred stakes wins. Pish campaigns that filly as well as they share common ownership interests. I think this one could be sitting on a better effort. Mr Fahrenheit (#11) starts from the opposite end of the starting gate. He drops in class for Ron Moquett after a dull effort with better last time out. Three of his four starts have been duds, but his effort two back was good enough to easily score here. He may need this drop in class to get back to that kind of effort. I made a case for Polar Wolf (#6) last time around after a rough trip two back in his second career start. He blew the break though and could no better than 5th two weeks ago. He comes back and still could be dangerous if he can get out of the gate better. 

Race 3:

State bred fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs here. I think the three year old fillies have the edge over the three four year olds in this race. You don’t see too many Vekoma siring too many Arkansas breds, and you don’t see George Weaver training too many horses bred in the Natural State. However, with $110K on the line in purse money, you can’t blame him for sending out Vekoma’s Diva (#6), who will be his first starter of the meet at Oaklawn. He’s the first foal to race from a First Dude mare that was second debut. Vekoma gets 23% winners from his debuting runners in dirt sprints and Weaver has great numbers with debuting runners. I imagine this filly will be competing elsewhere for the better part of her career, but this feels like a good spot for her first try. Stevie Kicks (#1) is the experienced runner that has the best shot to score. She ran an even race in her debut after breaking at the back of the pack. She was much sharper in her second try, finishing second by a length and a half. She’s drawn inside posts with big fields in her first two tries, so breaking from the rail doesn’t seem like too much of an issue today. Runaway Roxy (#5) is another first time starter in this race. She’s been working well for her debut over this course for Matt Shirer. The dam has foaled a debut winner from six starters to make it to the track so far. She’s sired by The Hunk, who was a speedy, stakes winning sprinter bred in New Jersey. His debut runners haven’t done much lately, but this one still makes some sense in this race. 

Race 4, The $200K Temperence Hill Stakes:

The first stakes race on this super-sized card is a 12 furlong marathon with a pair of standout runners. Parchment Party (#5) has never won at this distance, but he was 2-2 last year at 14 furlongs, so I don’t think he’s going to mind this trip. He was good enough to be considered for the Melbourne Cup in Australia in November. While things didn’t go his way in that two mile test over soft ground down under, he seems ready to reboot his career back home. He’s fired fresh in the past and his winning efforts in the Birdstone and the Belmont Gold Cup were quite impressive. Bill Mott has had five starters at this meet with three winners and two runners-up to show for it. Jokestar (#6) is the clear alternative to the favorite. His recency might be his best selling point when stacking him up against the favorite. He crushed a field at Laurel when going nine furlongs in his last start. He was a game second at this distance in the Grade 3 Valedictory Stakes at Woodbine three back. He can handle the dirt and can run all day, but whether he’s fast enough to go with the top pick still remains to be seen. 

Race 5:

Three year olds will sprint six furlongs in this optional $75K claiming/N1X allowance race. All eyes are going to be on Noble Affair (#7) for Steve Asmussen. He has two career starts, both of which came at the Fair Grounds. He debuted on the turf, but his second try on the dirt is what they’re going to be talking about. He won a hard fought maiden special weight race there which stopped the clock in a very sharp 1:09:4. While that course in New Orleans has been playing faster than usual, that’s still a really good time for a young maiden over that strip and the Beyer Figure supports that notion. Three runners from that race came back to break their maidens in their next starts there, including the second and third place finishers. The Equibase figures for that race aren’t quite as sharp as the Beyers indicate, so perhaps this one is going to be a lower price than he should be for this race. He’s going to be on the A line, but I’m including Swung (#4) on those tickets and I’m making him the top pick here. He’s been knocking on the door in tough races at this meet. His speed figures are trending up, so he’s a modest horse that just keeps getting better for Matt Williams. While his only win came on the turf, he’s been running strong races on the dirt. 

Race 6:

There’s an interesting first time starter in this maiden special weight contest for three year olds and up going six furlongs. John Sadler sends out Trapianto Tom (#3), who made the trip to Hot Springs alongside his stablemate, Full Serrano. Sadler has good numbers with firsters lately, scoring with 21% of his debuting runners since the start of 2025. Sadler is 3 for 20 with three year olds or older debuting over the last year, but only 6 for 66 over the last five years. Tom’s d’Etat is the sire and while his dirt sprinters are winning 18% of their races, they’re only winning 8% of the time on debut. Miss Mary Pat is the dam and she’s had 11 other runners to make it to the track. Tanya Showers was a decent sprinter who won some races on this oval, but none of her runners were debut winners in dirt sprint races. I’m going to be against this one in this race. I didn’t get Prime Power (#6) showing up in an allowance race earlier in the month, despite still being a maiden. He ran a big race on debut in New Orleans in December of 2024, but he hasn’t come close to running back to that figure in his last three starts. He faced good horses last time out and he is making his third start off a lengthy layoff today for Team Asmussen. He’s taking on a lot of three year olds as a four year old so this might be his best chance to break through at the maiden allowance level. Bilboa (#5) gets a major jockey upgrade for his third career start. Evin Roman is still winless in limited chances at the meet. He had been riding this son of Essential Quality. Irad Ortiz, who has two wins in seven starts at this meet, gets the assignment today aboard this son of Essential Quality. He’s a half to Popperina who has three wins on this course at this distance. Dawn at Normandy (#4) has the figures edge in this spot. He’s a five year old gelding who returns to a sprint after a decent effort when finishing second at one mile in the mud in his last try. He was claimed two back and despite the three month gap between those starts, Cipriano Contreras still had him pretty tight for his last start.

Race 7:

Run Classic (#5) feels like a good fit in this conditioned allowance sprint that starts the 4th of five Pick-5 wagers on this marathon card. He made his first start in 11 months in a strong ratings handicap here on the Rebel undercard. Carbone looked like his old self when winning that race. This eight year old gelding was wide throughout in that race and rallied on late to be a distant third. While at this age, he might have lost a step, but I do think we’re going to see him look more fit on the course this afternoon after getting that last race under his belt. Despite being eight years old, he has only started 21 times in his career, so while he’s starting to get a little long in the tooth, there are still plenty of miles left on his tires. Practically Dark (#1) and Mish (#3)are part of a formidable uncoupled entry who shipped in from Florida for Saffie Joseph on behalf of C2 Racing Stable. While Mish is in better form right now, I think Practically Dark could be sitting on a bigger effort. He just missed last out in Florida in November. He was a scratch in January, but he has been working like a horse that is ready to roll. Mish is a nine year old gelding that is certainly worth considering, but I prefer him as more of a backup here. 

Race 8:

It’s not particularly creative, but I think Shape Note (#9) is the most likely winner on this card. He just looks significantly better than his eight rivals in this N1X allowance sprint. He has 11 wins in 25 career starts. He lost in a three horse photo at this level last out when facing a tougher group. He’s in great form and I’m struggling to really make a serious case for anyone else in this race. The backup for me will be Dancin for Gold (#4) who was very sharp in his last two starts in Kentucky. He’s only had three recorded works for his first start back on track since August though, so it’s hard for me to think that he’s going to be fully cranked in this spot. The best version of himself does win this race, but it’s hard to be confident that we’re going to see that horse here. 

Race 9, The $135K American Pharoah Overnight Stakes:

This overnight stakes is restricted to horses that have not won a stakes race in 2025 or 2026. While the water gets deeper again, Publisher (#4) looks like a horse that has figured some things out as a four year old. He was second in the Arkansas Derby as a maiden last year, but it wasn’t until his 13th career start where he broke through to graduate from the maiden ranks. He came back and beat a solid allowance field three weeks ago to earn his second straight win. He’s now banked for more money than the $600K that his connections shelled out for him all the way back in the summer of 2023. This is a great spot for him because he has faced tougher fields in the past and this field is not graded stakes caliber. I think he keeps rolling today. Timeout (#6) is cross-entered in the Ghostzapper Stakes this afternoon at Gulfstream. Mott is already making the trip with Parchment Party and this race is probably a better spot for this five year old to make his seasonal debut. Kendrick Carmouche was named to ride, but with Napoleon Solo not running here, I’m not sure he’s going to make the trip. While the 1 1/16 mile trip of this race might be a little short for him, I like his fit with this field. A longer priced option that might be worth thinking about is Prince of Power (#7). He ships in from Turfway for Jesus Esquivel. While he ran okay in some races on the Tapeta there, his best work has come on the dirt. While I don’t love the rider choice of Javier Padron-Barcenas, the ability on the dirt is definitely there with this Runhappy gelding. 

Race 10:

Older runners will go 1 1/16 miles in this N1X allowance race. I made a case for Dance Some Mo (#7) at this level last out and while I was a bit dumbfounded with his effort, I’ve seen no reason to think that he can’t rebound in this spot. He just missed in his previous two tries at this level and I think the return to the 1 1/16 mile distance can only help. The one mile races here start and end at the 1/16 pole so the added distance in the length of the stretch should be favorable. Render Judgement (#2) is a live longshot in this spot for Ken McPeek. After some flatlining performances here last winter, his efforts in the Virginia Derby and the Blue Grass suggested that he was starting to figure some things out. He was overmatched in the Derby though and he didn’t start again until a dull effort in a race at this level at the beginning of January. He went back to New Orleans after that dull try, but he came back here a few weeks ago to prep over this course, likely with this spot in mind. Dr. Storm (#3)ran a big race at this level in the slop last out. He’s likely going to take money in this race and I think he’s worth using as a backup. However, I’m not rushing to take too short of a price on him in this spot.  

Race 11, The Grade 3 Oaklawn Mile:

Assuming all eight runners go postward in this Grade 3 contest, I think this one of the most interesting races of this meet thus far. East Avenue (#4) and Coal Battle (#6) are slated to make their four year old debuts against the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Full Serrano (#5) and the upstart four year old gelding, Nu What’s New (#7).  Full Serrano and Nu What’s New are two horses that have consistently gone to the front. East Avenue is also a horse that wants to be forward and he might be a little extra keen when making his first start since August today. This should set things up perfectly for Coal Battle if he’s good enough. He’s been on the bench since a narrow miss in the Indiana Derby back in July. He was really good here last season, winning both the Smarty Jones and the Rebel Stakes before a third place finish in the Arkansas Derby after what was probably a premature move toward the leaders. He had a miserable trip in the Derby last May, but he produced strong efforts in both the Matt Winn and the Indiana Derby that proved that his winter form here was for real. Corey Lanerie took over the riding after the Derby and he’s slated to be here to ride him today. Neoequos (#2) is an interesting longshot in this race that is coming back after a state bred stakes win on the grass in his last start. He was good enough to finish third in both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby last year. After struggling in the Derby and in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens, he came back to win the Jersey Shore Stakes at Monmouth. While all of his dirt wins have come at one turn, I do think he has efforts at two turns that are good enough to be a factor at this level. I think he might get the run of the race with Irad Ortiz on his back. I’ll back up with Nu What’s New over Full Serrano and East Avenue. I think this a prep race for East Avenue for a race like the Ben Ali at Keeneland next month on a course where his connections know he loves. Full Serrano is now seven years old and while he’s been facing some better foes, I’m not sure he’s as good as he once was. He has a special place in my heart since he saved the 2024 BC for me, but I’m siding against him here. Instead, Nu What’s New might be quick enough to clear off early. He’s been a sharp gate horse and he’s really come into his own at this meet. His allowance win two back was special and his second place finish behind Magnitude in the Razorback last month proved that he’s not a fluke. 

Race 12:

The race before the big race is a nine furlong maiden allowance race for three year olds. It’s hard to build a case against Banksy’s (#2) in this race. With the added distance, this race drew a lot of plodding closer types. On paper, it feels like he’s one of them, but he drew a wide post where he struggled to find a place to be. He dropped all the way to the back of the pack as the favorite in that spot, and while he got up for second anyway, he easily was a winner in that spot with a better trip. I expect him to be closer to the front in this race, seeing as how he is staring so much closer to the rail today. The main threat is the other short price, Kelz (#6). While I prefer the top pick, this one has true tactical speed and should be in a favorable position every step of the way in this spot. Decent speed in a paceless race at a longer distance usually lends itself to a horse that wants to be forward. Unless one of the firsters come out with his hair on fire, I think the short prices are the safe ways to get out of this leg. 

Race 13, The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby:

I’ll link my full horse by horse analysis that I posted on the blog earlier this week. However, the quick summary is that I feel the two shorter priced runners, Renegade (#6) and Silent Tactic (#2) figure to be very tough in this race. While both horses like to run from off the pace, I think there is enough speed to set the table for a showdown between these two well-bred colts. I’ll give the slight edge to Renegade since I feel he should be able to get first run on the pacesetters. Redland Rebels (#1) feels like a longshot with some upside in this spot. He has the fast track to the lead and I think he might be able to outlast both Blackout Time (#3) and Litmus Test (#9). He might be able to win the battle, but he might need some help to win the war with the top two colts bearing down on him. 

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/road-to-the-2026-kentucky-derby-the-grade-1-arkansas-derby-by-eric-solomon/

Race 14:

The 14th and final race of the day is a state bred maiden allowance contest for three year olds and up going six furlongs. Matt Shirer had a firster that looked live in the version of this race for the males earlier in the day, He sends out Our Vekoma Ride (#5) is this race. He’s another rare Arky bred that has been sired by Vekoma. While there are only three recorded works on his worktab, he’s putting up legitimate times. The dam was a debut winner. She’s had three runners make it to the track and two of them were competitive at first asking. Vekoma might be the best sire to date for her foals and I’ve already talked about his value with firsters in dirt sprints. Instamania (#10) is coming off a solid off the pace effort at this level. He caught a sloppy course that day, so his fast track form in the afternoons is still a question mark. I don’t want too short of a number with him, but there’s enough respect for that effort to use him. Whitley (#2) is the 7-5 morning line pick after two decent races where he finished in the money. Irad rode him last out and he’s named to ride him back in this race today. The only thing to really dislike is the short price. He’s a four year old making his third start off the layoff today. 

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 77/377 (20.4%, $601.60 $1.60 ROI)