The Grade 2 Azeri Stakes, which is the local tune-up for the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Stakes month, drew a strong seven horse field this afternoon where five of the seven runners are graded stakes winners. The champion filly, Nitrogen, will have six opponents in what will be a proper test for this filly this afternoon. Post time today for this 11 race card is scheduled for 12:30 (CST).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 6 | 6,7 | 2 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 2 | 6 | 6 | 1A | 3 | DBL, PK3, PK4 |
| 3 | 4 | 4,2 | 7 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 4 | 7 | 7,4 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2,3 | 9 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 6 | 10 | 10 | 5 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 7 | 6 | 6,4 | 8 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 8 | 7 | 7,3 | 8 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | DBL, $3 PK3 | |
| 10 | 1 | 1,9,3 | $5 DBL | ||
| 11 | 2 | 2,7 | 13 |
Race 1:
We’ll open things up with a $16K N2L claiming race going six furlongs. There is a chance for some inclement weather today as showers could be in the area in the morning and there are possible thunderstorm threats later in the afternoon. On a fast or good track, I’d make Colonel Caliente (#6) the top pick. It’s been a minute since he’s caught a fast dirt track, but that’s where he’s done his best work. While I don’t love that he’s in for $16K a few starts removed from being claimed for $50K, I do think he could be an under the radar type here. He finished first and second in his last two starts on fast tracks. He was competitive in a race on a sealed and sloppy course at Churchill in between those two starts. Since then, he’s struggled in the slop twice and had a dull effort on the synthetic at Turfway. While six furlongs might be a little short for him, I think he’s a candidate to upset this group. Ky Do Declare (#7) was claimed for $30K out of a maiden claiming race two starts back. He dropped to a $20,000-$12,500 maiden claiming level where he was a strong winner last month. Peter Miller has had a strong meet and he certainly seems to have figured out something with this gelding. This feels like a reasonable place for him to face winners for the first time. Sexagenarian (#2) is the morning line favorite and there’s no secret to what his tactics are going to be. He ran last week in a $20K N2L claiming race where he dashed out to the lead only to be collared late. He is dropping a notch today and while the turnaround is quick for him, I do think he’s worth covering, especially if a wet track winds up being kind to inside speed.
Race 2:
Fillies and mares will get their turn at the same $16K N2L condition as the opener. Cachination (#6) gets on the dirt for the first time since her second career start back in October of 2024. She’s sired by Practical Joke out of a Super Saver mare, so I’d think a traditional dirt course would be friendly for her. She was claimed two back at Turfway and ships here for a change of scenery after a dull effort last month. She makes sense to try here. Steve Asmussen sends out both Flat Out Stormin (#1) and Ante Up Tony (#1A) as a coupled entry here. While the two-for-one packaging here will limit the value on either runner, Ante Up Tony makes a lot of sense. She only has four career starts and her last two have been fairly solid. She came with a wide bid at this level last out when she closed into second. It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if she was a little closer to leaders in the early stages. A deeper saver for me will be Ragtime Sizzle (#3). She has a higher floor than most in this race. She hasn’t been showing much speed lately as she has race at the back of the pack in her first two starts at the meet. She ran well in the mud in New York back in the fall and she’s been at her best when she stays less than five lengths behind the leaders in the early stages.
Race 3:
This is a state bred maiden special weight contest for three year olds and up going six furlongs. What’s particularly interesting about this race is that nine of the ten runners in this race are three year olds. The lone older runner in the morning line favorite, God’s Country (#7), who is a five year old gelding who has had 15 chances to break his maiden. There are plenty of lightly raced and unknown commodities in this spot, so making him the favorite is understandable. However, when looking at his speed figures, he had two above average races for this condition in a two week span at the end of the 24-25 meet. His other 15 starts are relatively ordinary, including his first two stars this season. It took him four starts before he was able to run one of those better races last year, so it’s hard to confidently predict that at this point in his career, he’s sitting on one of those better efforts in start number 16. The flip side of the coin is that his floor could very well be good enough to beat this young field. Last time out, this gelding posted a 54 Beyer Speed Figure. Only one of the five other horses that have competed on the track thus far has eclipsed 40 (and they only earned a 41). Three of those runners are second time starters and a fourth runner is making his third career start and his second off the layoff, so it is reasonable to expect all four of those horses to improve their numbers. There’s enough of a disparity there for be to use God’s Country on the B line. It’s not easy for young horses to beat their elders at this point in the season, but this is a horse that has had many chances and found himself in some favorable spots last year and was still unable to seal the deal. I’m interested in Seventies Music (#4) as the top pick. He was sent off at 5-1 when debuting in the slop at this level last month. The conditions were deteriorating throughout the day and this one was interfered with fairly significantly at the break. The horse who finished second, about nine lengths better than him, came over sharply at the break, forcing him to take up and be relegated to last place early on where he spotted the field several lengths. He advanced steadily from last and made his way into 4th, just missing third by a neck. If the conditions aren’t great today, I can still trust him to improve, assuming the start goes better for him. I saw enough to believe that there is more to this one than his first try. Ernie Witt has a pair of first time starters in this race, with the shorter price being Rebel Ridge (#5) and the longer price being Corky’s Choice (#2). Both horses have been working like they have some ability. The dam of Rebel Ridge also foaled Kaboom Baby, who just missed on debut and went on to be a state bred stakes winner for Witt. That one was sired by Hightail, and this gelding has Mark Valeski as a sire. Mark Valeski’s horses do not have great numbers on debut, winning only 5% of the time when debuting in dirt sprint races (3-59). I’m also a little concerned that this one missed four weeks of training. He’s had two works since then, but I wonder if missing those drills might leave him a little short for this race. Corky’s Choice on the other hand, has generally worked well in company with his stablemate. He’s sired by Basin, who has 4 winners from 27 first time starters in dirt sprints (15%). The dam’s first two foals to compete have done nothing on the track, but I see some upside here. Even though Torres gets the mount on Rebel Ridge, I think the better value lies with Corky’s Choice.
Race 4:
Four year olds and up will travel 1 1/16 miles in a $40K-$35K N2L claiming race. I’m interested in Stoke the Fire (#7) on top here. His first two starts at this meet this season came in starter allowance company and neither effort was particularly good. However, that’s probably not the right level of competition for him at this point. He’s making his third start off the layoff and that was where he ran his best race on this course last season, breaking his maiden at the end of the meet in an open maiden special weight race on a day where he was making his first start off the Cipriano Contreras claim. Business started off slowly for this barn at this meet, but it’s been picking up over the last month as they have been spotting their horses in more reasonable races. I think with some longshots likely to set the tempo, he’ll be able to sit a solid trip in the middle of the pack and make a run in the stretch. I liked La Houligan (#4) a lot last month when he dropped in for a tag for the first time last month, however, it was a tough race for him with some definite excuses. The trouble line in the form says “herded out 6p far turn), but that lime doesn’t really do justice to his trip. He was at the back of the pack and beginning to move forward. He switched off the rail and into the two path, where he was moving in between runners. The horse to his outside came over while he was trying to advance, forcing him to take up briefly. That was significant because about a 1/16 of a mile later, the horse caused him to take up, went down, forcing the horse that was racing inside of him to lose the rider. His progress was affected by the spill, but the herding on the turn came from the riderless, causing Torres to have to exercise more caution than usual. The whole race was a toss for me. He drops in class after two rough trips on this oval. I’m comfortable using just these two runners on most tickets in this race.
Race 5:
Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles in this N1X allowance contest. Both Untamed Moment (#3) and Pahoehoe d’Oro (#9) have run big races at this level in sprint races, but both fillies are stretching out for the first time today. Pahoehoe d’Oro narrowly edged out her rival last time, but she’s assigned a much tougher post for this race. Both of these fillies are bred to handle two turns, but whether or not they can be as effective at this distance remains to be seen. Pronghorn (#2) figures to be the third choice in this race. She ran at this level last out and was lost in the shuffle among that full field. She was away a beat slow and was unable to tuck in from an outside draw. She was three wide throughout both turns in that race. She settled in midpack as the front-runners pulled clear early on. She may have been forced to move a bit early, and she was in tight at the top of the stretch. She’s beautifully bred and she’s better than her last race looks on paper. She’s the pick for me. Untamed Moment is a versatile filly who only has three races under her belt. She won on debut in the summer at Ellis when stalking the pace. She went to the front in her return to the races here in December. She led every step of the way before being nailed on the wire late. She missed the break last time and was forced to try to rally from off the pace. She came with a bold bid and came within ½ length of the winner. I think her running style and her adaptability make her a serious threat on the stretch out. Pahoehoe d’Oro might be up against it from a post standpoint, but this is not a deep group beyond the top three runners. She’s going to be dangerous if she gets the trip, so considering what she’s up against in this spot, it seems reasonable to back up with her at the very least.
Race 6:
Three year old maidens will go 1 1/16 miles in this $30K maiden claimer. When I look at this race, I’m not seeing anyone that has shown the ability to keep Brass Nucks (#10) honest in the early stages of this race. He’s drawn the outside post after fading late in the mud when facing $20,000-$12,500 maiden claimers here last time out. While this is a bump up in class, he’s going from facing older horses to facing straight three year olds in this spot. When you go through the conditions, on paper that class hike goes between 3-4 notches up the class ladder, but by running in a race restricted to three year olds, he’s not facing a field that is that much better. Every horse in this field is coming out of a two turn race, and nine of them have shown any early interest, with the exception of this gelding. He was claimed by Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez, who has had a very productive meet with a limited number of starters. He plays the claiming game extremely well, which is evidenced by how he spotted this horse after taking him for $12,500. Cristian Torres takes over from David Cabrera in the saddle. This one to win this race is probably my strongest opinion of the afternoon. The logical backup in this spot is the morning line favorite, I’m Worthy (#5) for Ken McPeek. He put in okay efforts in maiden special weight races in his last two starts, rallying late to get into 5th in both of his last two starts. While his form cycle suggests that he could be sitting on a bigger effort, I think that if McPeek thought he was going to run a race where his Beyers jumped 10 points or so, I don’t think he would have dropped him to a $30K maiden claiming level. My main issue is that he’s likely going to be pace compromised in this race, and while we’ve seen horses like this run well when finding their friends in maiden claiming company, I think the top pick has a significant edge in this spot today.
Race 7:
The Late Pick-5 begins with a $16K N2Y claiming sprint, going six furlongs. This is an interesting race where there are some horses coming in from different class levels to face three runners that lost in a four horse photo in a similar race last month. I Got No Munny (#6) was pretty much committed to being pushed hard for the lead in that last race. He broke from the rail on a course that was muddy and sealed. He breaks closer to the middle of the pack in this race and he has some speedy runners like Aero Star (#1) and Sir Sterling (#4) posted inside of him. He’s probably the most consistent runner in this field, so the fact that he could be comfortable letting those two duke it out while he’s waiting in the wings is definitely attractive. While both Holiday House (#8) and Sutherland (#10) are back to face him again, they couldn’t get by him when he was softened up while being asked for more early speed than usual last time. It’s hard to imagine them having better luck if he sits the better trip that I expect he can get here. Between the two front-runners that are dropping in class, I think Sir Sterling is the one with more upside. He ran well to be second against open $20K claimers two starts back. He moved up to $30K-$25K claiming company and the fact that he went into the gate at 49-1 proves how much deeper that field was at that level. The last time that he was in a beaten claiming spot, he embarrassed a field at Hawthorne this past fall. He only has one win in his last 17 starts, but he generally runs well when he’s well-spotted like he is today. Holiday House is more desirable to use as a backup since he has put together a nice string of races. I do feel that he was loaded last race and just had nowhere to go. He was more aggressive in the early stages and was running up on heels as the runners in front of him were four deep. I think Jaime Torres was hoping to wait and find a seam in between runners, but when that option was cancelled, he was able to dive down toward the rail. I’m not confident that he can completely replicate that effort today, but I do like the current form that Genaro Garcia has him in.
Race 8:
$20K maiden claimers will sprint six furlongs here. Capital Connection (#7) missed a large chunk of time, being sidelined from June 2024 until November 2025. He’s started twice since then and was claimed last out by Steve Asmussen. His M.O. tends to be that he is involved early, and while he’s struggled to win, he generally hangs around late. While this may typically make this horse a better candidate for the lower rungs of the vertical exotics, he is making his third start off a lengthy layoff and his second start after missing three months. Asmussen is a good horseman, so if something seemed off, I don;t think he would have personally reached into his pockets to pluck him for $12,500 last out. I’m expecting him to finish better in this race today. Saving Heart (#3) drops in class after finishing off the board in the mud when routing in a maiden special weight race last month. His effort in a sprint with $40K-$30K maiden claimers two back was definitely sharper. This is a fairly steep drop in class, so if he runs back to his race two back, he should win this one rather easily. My biggest problem with this one is that I think the six furlong distance is a little short for him. He doesn’t have a 6 ½ or 7 furlong option here in Arkansas, but I think those are going to be the races where he flourishes when he’s at the right level. He still could win this race since this is not a terribly deep field. I’ll think about the three year old gelding, Happy I Am (#8) as a deeper saver in this race. I think he would have fit much better in the $30K maiden claiming race for three year olds earlier in the card, so this is the opposite scenario to Brass Nucks in the 6th race today. While it feels like this is a drop in class, this one is actually facing tougher horses since they are older and more seasoned. That being said, he did make up a decent amount of ground on a sealed course in his debut. He’s drawn farther outside, so I’d look for the apprentice Ronnie Huckaby, to get him a little closer in the early stages of this one. He;s a second time starter that could be an interesting play, since I think there’s a good chance his odds go over his 20-1 morning line figure.
Race 9, The Grade 2 Azeri Stakes:
The champion three year old filly, Nitrogen (#2) is back a month removed from her win in the Bayakoa here when making her four year old debut. There’s no doubt that this is a tougher field, but I still think she’s better than her rivals in this race. She’s proven on an off track if that scenario presents itself today. While she proved that she’s quite capable of getting the 10 furlong trip in the Alabama, I think the 1 1/16 mile distance is her wheelhouse. I think her stablemate, La Cara (#6) and Standoutsensation (#7) will be able to set the pace, and I’m thinking Jose Ortiz will try to get her tipped out in a stalking position. She looked her stablemate, Nerazurri, in the eye at the top of the stretch last out and she powered past, winning with relative ease. I think she’ll be able to do the same here. Regaled (#5) was close to her in the Breeders’ Cup when they both were battling for the balance behind Scylla, who picked the right day to put it all together. CLosing from that far back was a very difficult task on that course at Del Mar, so perhaps her third place finish looks better than it does on paper. She struggled in the Falls City when coming back at the end of November at Churchill. She was given some time and Whitworth Beckman brings her back for her five year old campaign today. He has decent numbers off the layoff. I do think she’ll need an aggressive pace in front of her to pull off the win, but I think she’s clearly the second best horse in the race at this point.
Race 10:
Older runners will go two turns in a conditioned allowance race, which essentially works out to a first level or N2L race. An interesting group of 12 has been assembled for this race. The morning line favorite is Publisher (#3), who finally broke through in maiden company last out. He bankrolled over $550K, despite only winning for the first time last month. He doesn’t have a ton of early speed, but he has been more tactical than he was in his three year old races. While this is a tough group, I do wonder what that last win is going to do for his confidence. A wet track this afternoon could certainly be on the table as well. He’s worth using in this spot, but I think others might offer a little more value. Number One Dude (#1) has 10 career wins and while you have to go back to May of 2024 to find his last score, he’s a fairly consistent runner that has been facing some tough fields. Qualifying for this condition allows him to get out of the N2X races which are consistently deep races here at Oaklawn. He also drew outside posts for both of those last two starts, but today he’s landed on the rail. While that could present some other challenges, he should be able to save ground and find a decent spot in the early stages. Dr. Storm (#9) is another runner that could be getting involved late. He moved early and nearly pulled off a massive upset in the Claiming Crown Classic at Churchill this fall. He ran a huge race here two back, but has been flat in his last two. He had a wide trip two back and he ran into Nu What’s New, who has been the breakout star of this meet.
Race 11:
We’ll close the book on this Saturday card with a $12,500 N3X claiming race. This beaten claiming race is for non-winners of three races lifetime or horses that have not won a race in six months. I landed on Winit (#2) as the top pick in this race. He’s trying to find his form from earlier in 2025, and the way he finished up last time out, tells me that he might be getting closer. He missed the break and was caught behind a wall of horses in a race where the first five runners opened up a sizable gap between them and the second flight. He had some traffic woes, but was moving well late. He’s not usually at his best when falling way back, but he has a strong enough closing kick to get home if there is a pace meltdown. This race has plenty of early speed signed on, and while speed could be good on this course if it’s wet Nat Gas (#7) is another interesting price play in this race. He’s a lightly raced son of Thousand Words who was crushed in his first start of the meet. He ran in a tough starter allowance race where Gettinby threw out a monster effort. He finished up in another zip code, but was allowed to take it easy late once last place became a certainty. He has two speed forward wins in sprint races at Delaware, including one in the slop back in the spring in a maiden allowance race. He takes a decent drop in class, but he’s probably running at the right level. On deeper tickets, Lamplighter Jack (#13) needs help to draw in and since he’s on the AE list and based at the Fair Grounds, he might not make the trip unless he’s assured there will be a defection. However, I like the turf to dirt move for this eight year old who has been floundering a bit lately in beaten claiming races on the turf in New Orleans. He has three wins in 10 dirt starts, so perhaps a surface switch at this level can wake him up. The barn had a recent winner with their only starter at this meet thus far.,
2025-26 Meet Statistics
Top Pick Winners: 58/295 (19.7%, $433.40 $1.47 ROI)
