Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday 3/8/26 – By Eric Solomon

We’ll wrap up the week with a nine race card at Oaklawn, in Hot Springs, Arkansas. Bill Mott is bringing an interesting prospect to town who is looking to clear the N2X allowance condition and possibly set himself up for some stakes races down the line. Stars and Stripes will be heavily favored in the 8th race today. First post is set for 12:30 (CDT) 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a maiden special weight race for three year olds and up going one mile. The morning line favorite is Taptastic (#4) who is making his career debut for Steve Asmussen. This one is a half to Contrary Thinking and Tuscan Gold, both of whom were trained by Chad Brown. My struggle with playing this horse as the favorite is that Asmussen has lost 46 consecutive starts with debuting runners in route races. You have to go back exactly two years ago to a race at Sam Houston to find one of horses that debuted and won at a mile or longer. In a five year sample, he has only won with 6% of these runners (9-142), and most of those winners have come on lesser circuits. He’s also a three year old taking on six older runners here. Jose Ortiz is named to ride this colt, but he’s not named to ride any other horses here today. He is named to ride two runners at the Fair Grounds later in the afternoon. If Ortiz is planning on hanging around to ride this horse and then fly to New Orleans, he might believe that this horse is the goods. He also could be named to ride this colt because there is an intent to defect. Asmussen has another runner in the race, and entering this colt in this race may have helped it fill. I’m putting him on the C line here, because if Ortiz does stay to ride, that tells me something. If there’s a rider switch, I’m going to play against, assuming the horse still races. Dawn at Normandy (#7) is the pick for me in this race. He’s making his first start off the Cipriano Contreras claim, while also stretching out to two turns for the first time. His last two efforts were sharp. Durability has been an issue since there have been sizable gaps in between starts. Perhaps that was part of the reason he was entered in a maiden claiming spot last time out. This barn is sharp off the claim and he’s been working well. The other Asmussen runner is Mingo (#2), who was soundly beaten by his stablemate at this level last out. Publisher came back to win a first level allowance race here yesterday, so that is clearly flattering to both him and Bon Temps (#3). Luis Saez had him fairly close up last out, so I’m wondering with the other speed signed on for this race, if Keith Asmussen will have him in more of a stalking role in this race. Bon Temps has come alive in his last two starts, and there’s a part of me that is waiting for the other shoe to drop. He led most of the way last out, but couldn’t keep pace. While he’s faced superior horses in those races, he was never close to them in the end. He’s another deeper saver for me in this race.

Race 2: 

The Early Pick-4 begins with a $40K-$35K N2L. there’s a decent amount of early speed in this race, so if there is a closer that can get home, it might be Royal Bro (#9). He was in way over his head when he was entered in the Coach Overnight Stakes in his last start. He gave way and walked home. His effort prior  to that with $75K N2L claimers was fairly sharp, especially for a horse that was making his first start in 13 months. He’s been working well after being given a little extra time off, so I think he’s worth trying at a little bit of a price here. Mirage (#7) could be the runner that gets first run on the early speedsters. After going 0-7, he’s had a productive first two starts at this meet this season. He broke his maiden two back and he finished second with a $30K N2L group in his last start. He’s another horse that had a lengthy layoff not too long ago, but whatever was ailing him before seems to be in the rear view mirror. Lottery Win (#5) was trending up at Ellis over the summer where he broke his maiden. However, he was sidelined from July to February. He came back to face winners for the first time here when running with a waiver in a $32K N2L claiming race. He gets the waiver once again today, but should be more fit for this race. 

Race 3:

Three year old fillies will go six furlongs in an optional $75K maiden claiming race. Start Her Up (#6) is one of three first time starters here, and she looks like could contend with this group. Upstart is a solid debut sire, winning with 18% of his firsters in dirt sprint races. The dam has foaled some runners that came out running. Schultz is capable of winning with first timers and she has this filly working well. Juddmonte was the owner and breeder of Intangible (#1), but they put her up for sale after three slowish races to start her career. She was sold for $75K at an auction in January, which now allows her to be eligible to compete in this condition without racing with a claiming tag.  Blinkers and Lasix are added for her first try for Moquett today. Auntie Vodka (#8) comes back to the dirt after four consecutive turf tries in New Orleans. Her sprint races were better than her most recent route and she is sired by Practical Joke, so there’s reason to believe that she can compete on the dirt. 

Race 4:

We have another six furlong sprint here, this one a $30K-$24K N2Y claiming race. I liked Mischievous M (#2) last out when he dropped in class to face $50K N2Y claimers here, but he was always chasing and he retreated early. He drops again, and while three of his last five starts have been bad, his better efforts are still likely good enough to win at this level. There’s not much speed for him to contend with early, so that could help his cause today. Payne (#6) is an 11 year old gelding that can still compete at this level. He just missed last out with open $30K-$25K claimers where his claim was voided. He’s been a step slower in the early stages, which leaves him more work to do at the end of the race. He may be pace compromised, but he’s hard to even count out. Lundberg (#5) drops in class again after trying to go with some better horses in the early stages of his last start. He was a winner on opening weekend, but he has come up short in his last few. He’s a seven time winner and three of those wins have come on this course. 

Race 5: 

Ten Arkansas breds will go 1 1/16 miles in a beaten $20K claiming race. The recent form for many of these runners is tough. Ready Shoes (#4) is 0-16 at Oaklawn in his 27 race career, however, the form from some of the others is questionable enough for him to be my top pick. He’s generally a consistent runner who has usually been more competitive when facing state bred foes, despite never winning one of these races. Historically, when he has faced state bred competition, it has been against better fields. On paper, this appears to be the softest field he’s faced at this level. He’s a six year old gelding, so I don’t know how much better he’;s going to get, but he’s making his second start off the layoff today, so he could be in line to move forward a little bit, and that could easily be enough to win here. Chrome’s Echo (#6) is the morning lie favorite who is going back to a two turn race for the first time since breaking his maiden in May of 2024. He missed most of last year’s meet, starting only once, but clearing the state bred N1X condition. He returned this year and was no match for the state bred N2X level where he was facing some of the better state bred sprinters in training. He improved while dropping in class lat time and now he’s facing the softest group he’s seen in a while. On deeper tickets, I’m looking for a better effort from Great Barrier (#10). He had two sharp races at this distance last spring, but he struggled in the summer in three tries at Prairie Meadows. He made his seasonal debut last month, finishing about four lengths behind Chrome’s Echo. He’s been moved into the Asmussen barn, and I think he’s better at this two turn trip. The wide draw is not ideal, but this would be a logical spot for him to improve. 

Race 6: 

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in a $12,500 starter allowance. We’ve reached the point of the meet where there are a lot of qualifiers in some of these starter allowance races and that’s the case here. To be eligible for this race, a horse must have run in a race for a $12,500 claiming tag in her last two starts. There are 10 that signed up, but when you stack up this field against an open $12,500 race, it doesn’t seem to be as tough. This field is fairly evenly matched, but there’s not a ton of upside with many of these horses, especially the older mares. Jet Pack (#7) and Tartaria (#8) are the lone four year old fillies in this field, so in terms of expectations, this is where I’d start for horses that could be moving forward. Jet Pack was claimed last out after winning her third straight race. It looks like Ray Ashford had some things figured out with this modest filly who was likely in too deep for her first six starts. She was claimed by Steve Manley, who does not have great numbers first off the claim though. Meanwhile, Tartaria lost her last two starts in back to back photo finishes, including a narrow loss to Miss Jeopardy (#5) in her last start. She was claimed by Steve Asmussen, who is also the owner of this Mo Town filly. Her form has been a little up and down, but I feel like she has a better chance of moving forward in this race, where she should offer a better price. Jet Pack still makes sense, but at these lower levels, one does wonder if the other shoe is going to drop. A class hike and barn change certainly could be enough to derail her streak. She’s more of a B line horse for me. Icy River (#4) will be the other A line player for me. She’s a seven year old mare, but she’s been right there in her last four starts. She moved up in class to a tougher claiming race after being claimed for $12,500 at Remington two starts ago. She ran well in a tougher spot to be second. When scanning both fields, I’d argue that the group she saw last month was a little tougher than this group. 

Race 7:

The Late $3 Pick-3 begins with a $32K N3L claiming race going 1 1/16 miles. This feels like a great spot for Time for Truth (#4). He was sharp here as a three year old, breaking his maiden on debut and then scoring in N1X company when stretching out to this distance for the first time. He took shots against tougher fields which didn’t really pan out and then he struggled when he came back here in his four year old season. He was moved into Mark Casse’s barn where he’s been struggling over the turf and the Tapeta in Canada and at Turfway. However, he looked much sharper at this level in his last start, finishing third that afternoon. I liked the decision to bring him back to Oaklawn at a level that fits where he’s at right now. Despite having a tough afternoon yesterday, Casse’s runners have been ultra-sharp at this meet. In part that’s because he’s running horses at the right conditions, and that seems to be the case with this gelding today. Lear (#6) has been in good form of late, and when looking back at his races on this oval, this is where he typically fires his best shots. Javier Padron-Barcenas hasn’t had a ton of chances at this meet, but he’s earned the right to retain the mount on this gelding after two sharp rides. Like many in here, finishing first has been an issue at times, however, I respect what he’s done lately enough to use him in some way here. 

Race 8:

The Sunday feature is an optional claiming/N2X allowance race for four year olds and up going 1 ⅛ miles. There’s a massive favorite here with Stars and Stripes (#8) on the outside for Bill Mott. Mott has started three horses here at this meet thus far with two winners and a second place finish to show for these brief trips. This colt was excellent this summer at Aqueduct and Saratoga when running at this distance. He beat a maiden allowance field and a first level allowance group by a combined 17 ¾ lengths in those races. He missed the rest of the Saratoga meet and came back in the Dwyer Stakes when going a one turn mile in November. Between the distance, not having Lasix, and coming back after four months away, I’m not sure that was the best spot for him. He came back at this level at Gulfstream where he finished second, but was better than his stablemate, Batten Down. That one came here last week and embarrassed a field in an Overnight Stakes on the Rebel Day Card. This is a great spot for this one and I’m not really impressed with his seven rivals. This feels like a free square in the multi-race plays. The backup for me is going to be Dive Bomber (#3) who is definitely going to be pushing the limits at nine furlongs here. He is bred to handle this distance though and he tried it on the turf once in the spring of 2024. He’s the kind of horse that might be best in longer one turn races. The six furlongs at this level last time out felt a little short for him. He was very sharp at 7 ½ furlongs this fall at Churchill when clearing the N1X level. I don’t think he can look the favorite in the eye and hold him off, but I do think he could be involved for the battle for the balance here. 

Race 9:

Another week will be in the books after this state bred $20K maiden claiming sprint for fillies and mares concludes. I’ll try Rose Street (#12) on the outside as the top pick in this race. She debuted in an open $30K maiden claiming race against fellow three year olds last month and she improved to be 6th after missing the break that day. The outside post should help her cause as she looks to track the leaders going into the turn. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her improve here. Sweet Baby D (#9) feels like the one to beat on the drop in class. She’s a four year old Street Strategy filly who was third last month with state bred $40K maiden claimers. While the three year old filly Caroom’s Croupier (#2) is getting better, this feels like the right spot for the older filly to run her down. On deeper tickets, I’ll include Moneta (#10) who changed barns after finishing 4th behind Sweet Baby D last out. She had an inside draw and was committed to go to the front. While she hasn’t been the strongest finisher, she is making her third start off the layoff and if there’s some leftover moisture in the track by the end of the day, that might help her cause here. 

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 59/306 (19.3%, $444.80 $1.45 ROI)