We’ll start the week with a nine race program at Oaklawn Park. There were a few showers yesterday in Hot Springs, but the forecast at this point looks great for the next four days. Bill Mott has brought a few promising horses to compete at this meet and he’s sending out another one of those runners, with Beauty Reigns in the allowance feature this afternoon. First post is set for 12:30 (CST) today.
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 6 | 6,4 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 6,3 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 5 | 5,6,1 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 1,9 | DBL, PK3,PK6 | |
| 5 | 7 | 7 | 3 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 6 | 7 | 7,2 | 5 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 7 | 9 | 9,13,12 | 2 | DBL, $3 PK3 | |
| 8 | 1 | 1,4 | $5 DBL | ||
| 9 | 9 | 6,1,2 |
Race 1:
Fillies and mares will start the day off in a $8K claiming race going six furlongs. Only six are entered in this race, and I landed on the outside runner, What’s Crackin (#6) on top in this spot. Toss her last effort in the slop at two turns last out. While her form has dipped a little since Heather Irion claimed her at the end of the Ellis Park meet, she ran competitive figures when facing better fields in one turn races lately. Smart With Heart (#4) makes her third start of the meet and drops in class after pairing her last two Beyers. After a few dull runs where she hasn’t shown much early speed, she was more forwardly placed in her last start. I feel that bodes well when facing a more compact field here this afternoon. Sicilian Grandma (#1) is not the most consistent runner in the bunch, but when she’s feeling good, she can compete with this group. I think at longer odds, she’s more appealing than this suspect claim and drop favorite, Brooklynn Drew (#3) and the Delaware shipper, Salagadoola (#5), who likely wants a longer distance.
Race 2:
Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs once again in this $12,500 N3L claiming race. I landed on Balls in Ur Court (#9), breaking from the outside stall here. She shipped here from Woodbine as a part of Bruno Schickedanz’s contingent that he turned over to Eric Foster after her previous trainer, Norman McKnight retired in December. She showed some speed before fading to 4th in her local debut, which was the first time she competed on a traditional dirt surface. We often would see McKnight’s horses improve after their first start at Oaklawn when he would traditionally bring a group of runners here from Canada for the winter. I’m hopeful that will be the case with this speedy filly. Courageous Cappen (#6) feels like a higher floor, lower ceiling runner here. She just missed in her first two starts at the meet when facing open, Arkansas bred claimers. She tried allowance company last out, and while she outran her odds, she still finished seven lengths behind the winner. She gets to run with a $20K tag in this race since she was bred in Arkansas. Danele Durham is still looking for her first winner at this meet, but she has the eight year old mare in fairly decent form at the moment. Lilly Mae (#3) is one of the longer priced runners in this spot that is a little more appealing than some of the others. She is a four year old filly making her third start off the layoff. She’s been gradually improving over her last few starts. She was 6th at this level in her last start, but the runner-up did come back to win here last week. She is a candidate to move forward and while I think it’s more likely she hits the board, she’s not the worst horse to take a stab with here.
Race 3:
A field of seven three year old fillies has been assembled for this $50K maiden claiming sprint. I don’t think there’s much separating the six runners with experience here, so I want to try some horses at prices here to go along with the first time starter, Always Spiteful (#1), who I suspect will take a decent amount of money from the public in this race. Rambunctuous Ryle (#5) is the top pick, making her third career start today. She ran well at this level on debut, showing some early speed before fading to be third. She came back after the January hiatus and caught a sloppy and sealed course where she failed to fire. She took some money to be 4-1 on debut and went off at 7-1 last time out where she faced a second time starter who relished the slop. The third place finisher that day came back to run third against a better field in an optional maiden claiming race here on Sunday. I see her as a horse that can rebound on a fast track today. Everlasting Lover (#6) ran in that same race and finished seven lengths better than the top pick. She also debuted in the same spot where she was claimed, despite not looking all that great. She’s the first foal to race from a mare campaigned by the same connections as her sire, McKinzie. The fact that she never raced for them does show that there are some limitations here. However, I also think the January hiatus messed up the training schedules for a lot of horses and led to them going longer in between races than I think their trainers would have preferred. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a better effort from both of these fillies today, while making their second start after the break. Always Spiteful is scheduled to ship in from Keeneland for Eddie Kenneally, where she has been working well of late. I’m wondering if the decision to ship here is an indictment of how well the horse is doing at the moment. The Keeneland meet starts in four weeks and how she performs here could give Kenneally guidance of where she belongs at that meet next month. She looks live in a race where there’s no one that has wowed me in any way. However, she’s breaking from the rail, which is never an easy assignment for a firster, and will likely be well backed at the windows and thus eliminating any real value with her in the win pools.
Race 4:
This time, it will be the boys who will get their chance to run in an $8K claiming sprint. I liked One True Shance (#5) a lot last out, despite the fact that he was facing a much better group. I thought if the track were fast, he’d be a horse that could reverse his dull form. He didn’t catch a fast track that day, and he ran like a horse that didn’t want to run on an off track. He gets significant class relief and he should be on a fast dirt track. He was excellent last winter at the Fair Grounds and despite a rocky few races, I think this is a great spot for him to revert to his better self. Luv to Win (#1) is aptly named since he has won 33.3% of his starts (10-30). The more telling stat is that he only has four in the money finishes in those 20 races where he did not win. He feels like an all or nothing type in this race, and he certainly could be sitting on his A game at this level . The rail slightly complicates things for him and I don’t love taking too short of a number on a horse that is usually off the board when he doesn’t win. However, it makes perfect sense to make sure he’s backed up on the multi-race wagers. Taillights (#9) draws the outside post for Jade Cunningham here. He caught a fast pace and closed well, but ran out of real estate last time out. He’s better when he can stalk the pace, which should be much easier from his outside draw.
Race 5:
Fillies and mares will run one mile in this beaten $15,000-$12,500 claiming race. I think Showers (#7) for Tom Amoss is the most likely winner on the card today. She is getting serious class relief after a pair of off the board finishes in allowance company in her first two tries at this meet. She had outside posts for both of those last two tries which certainly didn’t make her job any easier. She dropped to the back of the field both times and came running late. While post seven isn’t great, it is an upgrade for a horse that runs her best races when she can sit closer to the pace. I think she simply outclasses this group today. Little Sister Sue (#3) is a longshot that I’ll be using to try to connect some value in the vertical exotics here. The top pick was about four lengths better than her when they hooked up at Churchill in November. She was spotted in a tough starter allowance race here in December and she came back last month in a sprint at six furlongs against another stronger group. She drops and returns to two turns, which is what she has done best in her career. She’s a seven year old mare, so the ceiling might not be as high, however, I do think she is a candidate to run a better race here.
Race 6:
The Late Pick-4 begins with a $20K maiden claiming race for Arkansas breds sprinting six furlongs. I liked the effort from Polar North (37) last out when he finished 3rd in a $12,500 state bred maiden claiming race. He broke from the rail and got away toward the back of the field. He advanced steadily and had plenty of run coming off the turn. He followed the move of the 4-5 favorite, but his lane got shut off at the ⅛ pole and he had to switch to the outside, which cost him a shot at beating the heavy favorite. He is a three year old taking on older horses, and technically, he’s moving up a step in class. However, I don’;t think there is too much difference between this field and the field he faced two weeks ago. This will be his third start in less than a month, but I think he’s up to task. Butch (#2) is one of the two shorter prices in this race, and while he has some absolute duds in his running lines, two of those three abysmal efforts came in two races. The other came in open maiden special weight company at Louisiana Downs and he needed four months to recover from that effort where something seemed amiss. He’s been relatively consistent in one turn races on this course and this feels like the right level for him. A deeper play here is Flat Out Blessed (#5). There’s definitely some elements of the unknown in play with him here. He ran a few sprint races last year that would be good enough to beat this group. Since then, he’s been turned over to a relatively unknown trainer, while maintaining common ownership. He’s making his third start off the layoff, so I can look past both dull efforts this season. He was in way too deep when facing open $35K-$25K maiden claimers two back and he wanted no part of the two turn distance when he was up against $40K state bred maiden claimers last month. This feels a little but like a put up or shut up kind of race for this 11 time maiden.
Race 7:
This beaten $16K claimer might be the most wide open race on the card. There’s an overflow field of 14 signed up with a maximum of 12 that can compete. I think this is a good spot for Sir Exton (#9) to try to right the ship. He was pretty sharp here last season, but things haven’t really gone his way so far this year. Robert Cline claimed him off Michael Stidham two starts ago in a spot where I thought he had a good chance at a price, but he lost all chance when he hopped at the break and was buried on a sloppy course. He came back in a race that was way above his pay grade. He wasn’t terrible that day, finishing 5th at 47-1, but that was a tough spot and a tough field for that condition. He comes back relatively quickly and he gets class relief while doing so. D Day Reunion (#13) needs a defection to participate in this race and if he does get in, he’s going to have to overcome a wide draw. However, he’s been struggling to keep up with some of the better starter allowance runners on the grounds in his last few tries. There is no close to the caliber of runner as Money Run or Gewurtztraminer in this race. He’s taking a necessary drop in class today. Magic Grant (#12) is the favorite, who is moving up in class after two nice second place finishes. He has left himself a lot of work to do in those races, and drawing Post 12 doesn’t help his cause. Brad Cox teaming up with Cristian Torres has worked out well locally, winning 25% of the time in the last seasons. Tejas (#2) is a live longshot in this spot dropping back down after struggling with better in his last start. He’s another horse that was just trying to find a race after the January hiatus here. He’s back at a better level for a smaller barn that is quietly having a very nice meet.
Race 8:
The featured race today is a N3L allowance race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. This race is a little easier than an optional claiming/N2X allowance race, but it’s still a tough field considering that all seven runners cleared the N1X condition on a major circuit. Bill Mott beings another high profile, short priced favorite to town with Beauty Reigns (#4). He scored with Stars and Stripes in a similar kind of race on Sunday and he’s looking for the same outcome with this Into Mischief filly. She flashed some serious potential in her three year old season, finishing third in the Grade 1 Test Stakes and second in the Grade 3 Victory Ride Stakes, both at Saratoga. While the six furlong trip here might be a bit short for her, this feels like a good launching point for her three year old season. The Grade 1 Madison and the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff are coming up in the next two months and a strong effort here could put her under consideration for one or both of those seven furlong races in Kentucky. One thing to note is that Luis Saez was riding the better Mott horses he was bringing here, however Saez, decided to go back to Florida for the next few weeks before heading to Lexington to ride regularly at Keeneland. Jaime Torres, who has had a lot of mounts for Riley Mott, and some for Bill as well, will get the assignment today. She is the class of this field, but I do think she’s going to have her hands full with the Asmussen speedster, Beautiful Twice (#1). She’s going to be the top pick for me in this spot because I think she could find herself loose on the lead. She’s drawn the rail and I don’t see anyone going with her early. If Erik Asmussen can ration her early speed, I think her recent fitness level could make it tough for the favorite to catch her late. I’d upgrade her if the track feels speed friendly today and I might downgrade a bit if closers are getting home in the outer lanes most of the time. Regardless, I see her as the filly with the best shot to pull off the upset.
Race 9:
We’ll close things out with another state bred $20K maiden claimer, this one set for 1 1/16 miles. Captain Hamazing (#6) gets the last call of the afternoon for me. He’s been gradually improving, running third at this level at this distance last time out. Cristian Torres gets the assignment today in hopes of giving Jinks Fires his first winner of the meet. My Russian (#1) goes back to two turns after a dull effort in a sprint last time out. He put forth an even effort two back when returning from a nine month break in a race at this level at this distance at the beginning of January. While he doesn’t necessarily want the lead, he has enough tactical speed to find himself in a favorable early spot. Arky Road (#2) is another live runner here, He’s looked good in his last two sprints and now he’ll be asked to get two turns for the first time since his second career start last spring. He’s loving from open maiden claiming to state bred company where he’ll be some class relief despite running for the same tag.
2025-26 Meet Statistics
Top Pick Winners: 58/295 (19.7%, $433.40 $1.47 ROI)
