A new week of racing is upon us at Oaklawn, starting off with a nine race, Thursday afternoon card. The 8th race is a very nice N2X allowance race featuring a few horses that could be stakes bound real soon. While tomorrow marks the first day of spring, it’s going to feel like summer this week in Hot Springs. The early forecast is calling for warming temperatures throughout the week and a lot of sunshine. First post is set for 12:30 (CDT) today.
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 2 | 2,7 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 2 | 2,8 | 7 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2,6 | 3 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | DBL, PK3,PK6 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1,3,9 | 11 | 1A | DBL, PK3, PK5 |
| 6 | 6 | 6,7 | 2 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 7 | 3 | 3 | 8,5 | DBL, $3 PK3 | |
| 8 | 5 | 5,7 | 6 | $5 DBL | |
| 9 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
Race 1:
The week begins with a $50K starter allowance race for four year olds and up. Horses must have broken their maiden in a maiden claiming, auction maiden, or a state bred race along with being eligible for the N1X allowance condition in order to qualify for this race. Triple Up (#2) has a live look in this race, despite trying open company for the first time. He has three career starts, all of which came in state bred races during this meet. He came from off the pace to score in impressive fashion in his debut race. He struggled somewhat in his second start when he ran into Nicholai and Touchdown Arkansas. The latter came back to win in state bred stakes company when facing some of the best state bred sprinters in training. This gelding came back to run a much sharper race last out against another strong allowance field. He’ll be overlooked coming out of state bred races, but make no mistake, he’s faced quality opponents in each of his three starts. If they cook up front early, he could be the one that comes firing home late. Poppa Echo (#7) is clearly the one to beat in this spot. He’s been very sharp in each of his three starts at this meet. He was caught late at this level last time out, finishing second as the 7-5 favorite. He’ll have company early from Bob’s Carrot (#4) and Handsome Herb (#6). I do think he can win the battle among those two, but we’ll see how much starch that takes out of him.
Race 2:
I’m going with a decent price horse in this $12,500 maiden claiming sprint for fillies and mares. News Too Serious (#2) is 20-1 on the morning line, which tracks for a horse that has lost her three career starts by a combined total of 83 lengths. She is getting class relief while cutting back to a sprint after a failed effort at two turns last out. She’s also getting significant class relief, dropping in from $30K maiden claiming company. While her effort two back wasn’t great, she showed a little more life than she did in her debut. She drew post 10 in a 10 horse field when going a two turn mile last out. She was wide throughout and was never going to contend with that kind of trip. She fired a sharp workout here last weekend, signaling that she could be sitting on a better effort today. The two principal threats for her chance to pull off the big upset are Miss Que Sera (#8) and Nandina (#7), who finished close to each other when competing at this level last month. Miss Que Sera is trending upward and is now making her third start off the layoff for David Fawkes. I think she has a better chance today than Nandina, who is making her second start after a very lengthy layoff. She was sidelined from October of 2023 before making her return. She ran well to be a close 4th under those circumstances, but I do want to see her prove she can back that effort up before taking such a short number on her. I see her as more of a backup.
Race 3:
Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles in this optional $32K claiming/$25K starter allowance race. I’m interested in Thestral (#2), who is trying to win her second straight race. She cleared the N1X condition here in her last start two months ago. She has strong efforts on this oval and lands in a reasonable spot, considering that a N2X race might be a bit out of her depth at the moment. She has enough tactical speed to secure a comfortable spot in the early going. U Light Up My Life (#6) feels like the one to beat, making her first start since being moved over to Saffie Joseph. This barn hasn’t sent many horses here this season, but the few that have made the trip have been quite competitive. Her last two starts at two turns at Tampa have been very strong. Mad About Marie (#3) might wind up going into the gate as the post time favorite on the heels of a huge effort in a N1X company in her last start. She pulled off a 24-1 upset at that level with relative ease. That was a career top effort from this four year old filly. She has looked very comfortable on this course, so it’s hard to completely ignore her. Gun to my head, I think she bounces, but this is not the deepest group, so I’d want her on a few saver tickets if possible.
Race 4:
Open $10K claimers will travel one mile here. I think Mintastic (#3) looks strong in this spot for Team Asmussen. He was a sharp winner two back in N1X allowance company at Sam Houston. He came here and was flat in the slop in a $24K claiming race in his most recent start. The drop in class is significant, but this is likely the right level for him on this circuit. After a slowish start, this barn has been quite hot of late. The backup for me here is Wartime Hero (#2). Under different circumstances, I might be tempted to put this horse on top at a nice number. I do think he’s sitting on a better effort than what he showed last out. My concern about this nine year old gelding is how much better he’s been elsewhere than Oaklawn. He’s 8-17 outside of Arkansas and only 2-21 here. While he does have 8 second place finishers on this course, he just doesn’t seem to be as effective when he shows up here. I like the fit enough to make sure that he’s on some tickets, but I think he might be better suited for the bottom half of the exacta.
Race 5:
I’ve mentioned in the past that the 5th race on the 9 race cards at Oaklawn is a part of 10 of the 21 multi-race wagers offered this afternoon. This $12,500 N2L claiming contest is one of the tougher puzzles of the day. Swift Kelce (#1) is a part of a John Haran coupled entry in this race, and this Outwork filly is the one I prefer. She is coming off a 3rd place finish with $25K N2L claimers at Will Rogers Downs in her most recent try.Despite breaking her maiden in a two turn race, I think she is more effective in sprint races. She left herself a little too much work to do when going 5 ½ furlongs last time out. I do think this distance and class level suits her well. Javier Padron-Barcenas is named to ride both her and her stablemate, Coldasice (#1A). At Oaklawn, this does not guarantee that one part of the entry will be scratched, however, that possibility does remain. Coldasice is still playable, but I think her stablemate is the one that I have more confidence with. Troubler (#3) is the likely post time favorite in this spot, coming off two nice efforts on this course. She broke her maiden with $12,500 maiden claimers at the beginning of February and then she came back with a strong effort to finish third at this level in her last try. I do worry about a speed and fade scenario, especially in a larger field. However, she is lightly raced and still improving, so her ceiling is likely higher than many of these. There is enough early speed signed of in this race for me to consider Evocation (#9) on the A line as well. She only has one win in 19 career tries and she might be better suited for a two-turn race. However, she’s making her second start after a nine month layoff, so Bruce Riecken might be trying to give her one more sprint to improve her overall fitness level. She ran well at this level and distance on this course last spring, closing to be second that afternoon. I do see a scenario where she’s revving up late. Timeless Love (#11) is a total wildcard, shipping here from Turfway for her new trainer, Robert Medina. Her synthetic form is likely good enough to win, but she didn’t finish either career start on dirt, so there’s no real form to go off. Ramon Vazquez is the leading rider, so the fact that he’s riding is a plus. 3-1 is probably too short for me to use her in the vertical exotics, but I would probably want to be backed up with her in the horizontal wagers.
Race 6:
The Late Pick-4 begins with a beaten $12,500 claiming race going six furlongs. While I (#6) was not great at this level in his last start, but he has other races that would make him very competitive at this level. He was claimed by Tracy Tanner after a big effort here at the end of December. Tanner’s horses have struggled somewhat at this meet, so his dull effort last out wasn’t a shock. Armando Hernandez claimed him and his numbers with recent claims first out are very sharp, winning with 7 of 13 of these runners since the start of 2025. He keeps him at the same level and he is reunited with Erik Asmussen, who has been in the saddle for both career wins. Fifth Avenue (#7) was several lengths better than the top pick last out. He led most of the way before getting a bit leg weary in the final 100 yards. He’s had two maintenance drills since then and is going to be the likely pacesetter once again. I think he’s quick enough to win the early battle and if he continues to improve, he’s going to be tough to catch in the late stages. Classic Cut (#2) drops in class for this race for Steve Asmussen. He’s working hard to try to regain his form from the fall of 2024. He’s shown glimpses of being that horse again, so perhaps the class drop is the key to returning his consistency. His tactical speed figures to be a valuable weapon in this spot.
Race 7:
She’s an Earner (#3) figures to be tough to beat in this $24K maiden claiming race for three year old fillies. I don’t trust the stamina for the majority of the runners in this race, so getting her to cut back to six furlongs from 1 1/16 miles feels like a move that will pay dividends today. She ran well enough in a pair of turf sprints earlier in her career to suggest to me that she can handle this kind of distance on the dirt. I’m thinking that many will be heading in the wrong direction and as long as Erik Asmussen can avoid getting caught behind some of those runners, she’ll be in good shape. Pippa’s Noncents (#8) has the look of a live longshot in this spot. She was a distant 4th at this level in her last start when she was at the back of the pack early and wasn’t able to keep pace with the winner who drew off to win by 11 lengths. Her debut with $30K maiden claimers in Kentucky was solid, so if she’s able to revert to that type of form, she could be in play at a price here. Clap Back (#5) held a clear lead before falling a part in the final furlong when facing $30K maiden claimers in her most recent try. She took a decent step forward after pairing her Beyers from the two prior efforts. Early speed seems to be the name of her game and her overall presence figures to make things very tricky for Legal Lightning (#6), who breaks from the stall next door.
Race 8:
The featured race is a strong optional $62,500 claiming/N2X allowance race going six furlongs. Baddest Good Boy (#5) was a nice horse that emerged from the races here last season. He was an impressive maiden winner before clearing the N1X condition in his second career try. His form after that race was a bit up and down, which led to him going to the sidelines after a dull effort at this level at Churchill in May. He came back at this level last out and was a little flat early on. He was getting into it toward the end of the race, so there’s reason to believe that he can turn in a more complete effort at this level today. Zero Sugar (#7) is the main threat, coming off a big time effort to score in a N2L allowance race in his last start. He’s another runner whose form is a bit muddied, but his two races at this distance were really good. He clearly likes this course a lot, as he’s had four really good efforts in five local tries. His local dud came against Nu What’s New when that one ran a monster race to clear the first level allowance condition when going two turns. He responded with a huge try in a cut back to this distance. If he can take another step forward, he’ll prove himself worthy of taking a shot in the Count Fleet Handicap next month. Classic Time (#6) might offer a better price than the top two in this race. He has wins in three of his last four starts and he won in open company for the first time in his career when he shipped here and cleared the N1X allowance condition. He’ll need to continue to move forward and his best chance to win might require the top two not quite being on their A games. However, there are still some things to like.
Race 9:
The finale is a state bred $40K maiden claiming race for three year old fillies. I think Whispering Charm (#3) is clearly the one to beat in the nightcap. She has had two strong races on this course since coming back from eight months on the bench. She just missed in her first race back when facing straight three year olds. While her last race was carded for three year olds and up, only one older horse was entered, That field was a little tougher and a big longshot ran her eyeballs out after a dull debut. I think the drop in class makes sense, despite running credible tries in state bred maiden allowance races. While the other runner that will be vying for favoritism is Paroli (#9), I am much more suspicious of her current form. She’s also dropping in class after a dull effort in state bred maiden allowance company. She has one strong try among two dull efforts, so I’ll try to beat her underneath with Lady Strategy (#12). She met a runaway winner in her last race when facing a similar group. She battled to get into third that day, but she was in a different race than the winner. She has the right to move forward once again in her third career start.
2025-26 Meet Statistics
Top Pick Winners: 64/325 (19.7%, $504.20 $1.55 ROI)
