Arkansas Derby Week starts with a nine race, Thursday afternoon card, highlighted by the $200K Hot Springs Stakes. First post is set for 12:30 (CDT) today.
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 7 | 7 | 5 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 2 | 5 | 5,2,4 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6,4,5 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3,4 | 6 | DBL, PK3,PK6 | |
| 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 6 | 8 | 8 | 1,7 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 7 | 7 | 7,3 | 5 | DBL, $3 PK3 | |
| 8 | 7 | 7 | 2,1 | $5 DBL | |
| 9 | 4 | 4,10,6 |
Race 1:
While it might be a chalky way to start the day, I think it’s going to be hard to beat Saving Heart (#7) in this $10K maiden claimer. He’s had to deal with sealed off-tracks in his last two starts, one of which came at two turns. He’s back at six furlongs and he should be back on a fast strip this afternoon as the forecast looks promising. His last two starts on a fast course are significantly better than his wet track races. He’s getting class relief and is strictly the one to beat here. Fair Hope (#5) is the backup for me in this spot, making his second career start this afternoon. He debuted in a maiden allowance race at Horseshoe Indy last spring and then has been sidelined since. He was privately purchased and now makes his second career start for new connections. I’d argue that he’s well-spotted here while facing some professional maidens that don’t seem to have much interest in winning races. He might be more effective in his next start, but I think he’s worth considering today.
Race 2:
The next two races feel more wide open to me, including this $30K N2L claiming sprint that kicks off the Early Pick-4 wager. I think Favoritism (#5) is worth a look in this spot. He’s making his fourth start after an extremely long layoff. He broke his maiden in October of 2023 at Santa Anita and then didn’t show up again until January 3rd of this year. He’s been well-beaten in each of his three starts, but he’s dropping in class once again. He’s 20-1 on the morning line and while he might not go off at that number, I do think longer odds are fair based upon what we’ve seen since his return. His speed figure against much better company when racing at the N!X allowance condition in his first start back was competitive and I can make an excuse for both his last two starts. He was bumped around hard in his race two back and he caught an off track while going two turns last time out. He cuts back in distance, so I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that he could move forward off his return race at this level. If he can, his figures tell me that he can compete at this level. I like what I’ve been seeing from the apprentice, Amir Mendoza, all meet long, and especially so in the last few weeks. There are a lot of ingredients to like in taking this one at a price here. Go West Go (#2) is trying to find his better form that he flashed here last season. He might be a race or two away from getting back to that, but it’s fair to point out that he’ll be getting significant class relief in this spot. They entered him in the Oaklawn Handicap last year and while I respect taking reasonable shots, this horse had no business being in that race. This is the first start for him while racing with a claiming tag. Royal Bro (#4) is another runner that is making his fourth start back from an extended break, although he was not sidelined for nearly as long as the top pick. Like the top pick, he ran a strong figure when making his first start back, but he’s had excuses for dull efforts in his last two. He proved that he was okay after failing to finish in the Coach Overnight Stakes two back and he should be more competitive at this level today.
Race 3:
There are two short prices in this optional $150K claiming/N1X allowance race for three year old fillies, and while both are going to be on my tickets, I’m going to make a longer price the top pick. Agrippina (#6) makes her third career start and her second on the dirt. She was a maiden winner here on opening day, and she good when streaking home as a much the best winner. She gets Lasix for the first time and while she’s never going two turns, she’s bred to get the distance. She clearly likes the course and has been working well for her first try. This race is not as deep as some of the other N1X races that were run earlier in the meet. Spitfire (#4) makes her third start off the layoff today and is looking to build momentum off of a big effort at this level last month. She was flat in the Martha Washington Stakes two back, but she definitely moved up in her last try. The question that needs to be answered is whether or not that type of effort is sustainable for her. She’s a modest filly that had never put up a number like that prior to her last try. She was getting Lasix for the first time and she could simply be a filly that is coming into her own. Knickleandime (#5) is the speed of the speed in this race. She made the front in stakes company in her last two starts, only to be collared at the top of the stretch both times. There’s not a ton of speed here, which does make her worth using. She gets Lasix for the first time today and certainly has the recent class edge.
Race 4:
I made a case for Highly Connected (#3) as a potential upsetter two back in a similar spot and lost in a three horse photo at 12-1. While I wasn’t as high on him last out in a similar starter allowance spot, I do think his race was better than it looks on paper. He was bumped around a bit at the break, but the bigger issue was being forced to steady in behind runners when going into the first turn. He was caught in between and in behind rivals for the better part of that race. Meanwhile, Western Warrior (#4) had the run of the race and was able to swoop over the top to score with relative ease. While he might have been the better horse on that day, he definitely had the better trip. I think both are worth playing back in this race, but with the rider change to Cristian Torres for Highly Connected, along with the addition of Lasix for the first time, I think he is capable of closing the gap between the favorite. The odds disparity on the morning line for me is too wide, so I’ll make Highly Connected the top pick and use both runners on the A line. Bird the Legend (#6) is the backup for me in this race. He has one start in a maiden auction race at the Fair Grounds. He came from off the pace to score by a hard fought neck. Brad Cox has good numbers with runners going from sprints to routes and getting Irad Ortiz in the saddle will certainly help his cause. I do think his presence will keep the price on Western Warrior from dipping too low. I think there’s going to be better value elsewhere on a bit of an unproven commodity, but the new shooter is still somewhat enticing.
Race 5:
State bred runners will go 1 1/16 miles in this N3L allowance race. This can be a tricky condition to read because typically it falls somewhere in between a first and second level allowance race. Seven of the 10 runners in this race are still eligible for the state bred first level allowance condition and two of those runners have faded in terms of quality since clearing that condition a long time ago. Honey’s to Blame (#8) is a three year old taking on older horses, but this is not a good field for this condition. He beat open company when clearing the first level allowance condition last month. That effort was good enough for Ken McPeek to take a chance with him and run him in the Rebel Stakes. He couldn’t keep up with that caliber of field, but he’s getting some massive class relief by dropping into this spot. You don’t see too many runners bred in Arkansas that sell for $145K at the sales, but that was the case with this son of Blame. I think he’s too talented for this bunch. The backup for me here will be Devils Fork (#5). He was claimed for $20K last out after easily beating a state bred claiming group as the 5-2 favorite. While he’s moving up in class, he’s facing a below average field outside of the top horse. With the expectation of hooking one of the more promising Arky breds in training, this field came up softer than most of the state bred first level allowance contests, which he is still eligible for,
Race 6:
I’m siding against the morning line favorite, Hern (#3) in this open $25K claiming race. He was claimed for $35K for Mike Maker last out, and while Maker is really good first off the claim, he’s typically improving horses. I suspect that if he felt this horse was trending in the right direction, he wouldn’t be competing in a race where his claiming tag is $10K less than what they just paid for him. Conversely, I think this a really good spot for Bernin Tune (#8), who does appear to be going in the right direction after being claimed for $15K two starts back. He won that race and finished third in an above average race for the beaten $30K claiming condition at the Fair Grounds. Kavod won that race and while that horse might have lost a step, he’s a really nice former stakes winner that turned in a huge effort, reminiscent of his glory days. Tom Amoss has kept this one in good form and I think he’s well-spotted in this race. J T’s Imagination (#1) shortens up after finishing off the board in a pair of good nine furlong starter allowance races. He went off at long odds in both of those races while facing some of the best starter allowance runners on the grounds. He gets class relief for this race, which should be welcomed. There are several that like to be forward in this spot, but his rail post should allow him to get the trip he wants. Dynamis (#7) fell apart late after dueling early. The end outcome looks worse on paper after dealing with some interference at the top of the lane. Walter De La Cruz is back and he did a much better job of rationing his early speed two starts ago. While he’s been battling for the lead in his last two tries, he’s been historically better as more of a stalker.
Race 7:
There’s another short price in this maiden special weight race for three year old fillies, going 1 1/16 miles. Dare Greatly (#3) is the one to beat,m but she’s not necessarily a slam bunk in this spot. She’s had several chances to break through, but it hasn’t been her time yet. She’s been knocking on the door and she faces a field that doesn’t look particularly strong. However, I think Holly’s Holiday (#7) is a live longshot in this race for Ken McPeek. She didn’t show much on debut, but she was a little more lively in her second start. She was sharp from the gate that day, but didn’t corner very well going into the first turn. She was shuffled back to 6th, but came with a nice three wide move while being pumped upon fairly hard. She was leveling off a bit, but her race was officially over when she was bumped hard and forced to steady late. She was relegated to 8th, and eased up late. She’s had time to grow and mature and she’ll get Lasix for the first time. She has some early foot, so if she is a little more mentally with it, I think she can workout a very kind trip. I’ll back up with Authentic Beauty (#5), who is getting back on dirt after faltering on the turf in New Orleans in her last start. Her first start came on the dirt in a race taken off the turf. The top two finishers were well clear that day, leaving her to be a distant third. She’ll be getting a fast track for the first time and is probably better suited for the dirt.
Race 8, The $200K Hot Springs Stakes:
There are a few housekeeping notes to take care of for this one mile stakes race for three year olds. As per Mark Casse, Strategic Risk (#6), who won the Smarty Jones Stakes earlier in the meet, will be defecting from this race due to an ankle issue. Lincoln’s Law (#2) is cross-entered in an allowance race at Gulfstream tomorrow and Bricklin (#3) is cross-entered in the Arkansas Derby on Saturday. Bricklin is expected to scratch out of this race, but at the time of writing this, I have not seen which way the connections for Lincoln’s Law are leaning. There’s only four other rivals in this $200K race, so while the opposition is tougher, it makes sense to compete here. I think this is a great spot for Soldier N Diplomat (#7) to get right. I thought his effort in the Southwest Stakes two starts ago was very good. He finished in front of Buetane while racing wide for the better part of the race. He drew another difficult post for the Rebel where his trip was worse. He wasn’t able to keep pace with the better horses in that race and he may have had a little starch taken out of him, wheeling back rather quickly after such a big effort in his three year old debut. While as a son of Army Mule, I do think he could have distance limitations, I think the mile distance here sits him well. The expectations for this colt have been high from the jump, and I think Asmussen will have this colt ready to fire a big race. I’ll be interested to see what direction they’ll take with Lincoln’s Law here. While the more conservative approach would be to opt for the Gulfstream allowance race, he’s staring down a smaller field here with a purse that is more than twice that of the Florida contest. He was very good on debut, scoring with ease on the Fountain of Youth undercard. He’s a half to Chancer McPatrick, who was a multiple Grade 1 winner as a two year old back in 2024. Rigney Racing bred that colt and put him up for auction at the OBS Sale in 2024 where he sold for $725K. It’s worth noting that they opted to keep this colt. If he runs here, he’ll be trying two turns for the first time. I do think he might have the highest ceiling in this field. Bob Baffert will be well-represented here this week, and he’ll try to get things off on the right foot with Desert Gate (#1), who is the morning line favorite. I don’t think Baffert has a particularly strong hand for the Derby this year, so the fact that they’re entering this horse in this race gives you an idea of where he falls in the barn’s pecking order. He was a beaten favorite in the American Pharoah last year and I thought his return to the races in the Robert Lewis Stakes last month was uninspiring at best. I was pretty surprised that he didn’t make the lead when drawing the rail last out. I’m not sure if that was by design, but I thought his trip and effort suffered as a result. Prat gets on for the first time and Baffert is putting blinkers on for the first time as well. This race could be an audition for the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day and with a purse that is $750K, there’s no shame in taking that approach. I see a scenario where this horse is the lone speed in a small field, and that is always dangerous. However, I think there’s a decent chance that both Soldier N Diplomat and Lincoln’s Law have a higher ceiling and could be better right now, while also going off a better odds.
Race 9:
The Thursday finale is a $15K maiden claimer where the Arkansas breds will run with a $25K tag. Global Heat Wave (#4) has a live look in this one mile contest. He’s getting class relief coming out of two decent state bred maiden special weight contests. I like the one mile trip for this son of Global Campaign. Expect Luis Quinonez to have him a little closer in the early stages of this one. Copperjacket (#10) will have to overcome a wide draw, which has been the case in both of his last two tries. He drops in class again after pairing his Beyers in his first two routes. He has the look for a horse that could move forward in this spot if he can work out some kind favorable trip. Expensive Game (#6) is the lukewarm morning line favorite. His last two efforts haven’t been great, but this is class relief, although it might not appear to be that much on paper. He has two nice efforts at Remington this fall that would play very well at this level if they can be replicated.
2025-26 Meet Statistics
Top Pick Winners: 71/356 (19.9%, $548.20 $1.54 ROI)
