Race 1
#6 Mr. Peterkin: The performances improved when dropped into the maiden claiming ranks. He only has one race on fast dirt, and that was a terrible debut. Now he drops again and maybe gets on a fast track. He might show a little bit of value as a favorite in the opener.
#1 Western Pharoah: This son of American Pharoah is also dropping in class, and the last time he routed was the second-best race in this horse’s young career. If he can get a little bit closer from a pace perspective, he could upset.
#2 Epic adventure: The debut Beyer was substantial (60), then came a ton of time off and an absolute disaster second time out, and he gets claimed up by a barn that is 0-5 in the last two years. You should get good value here if you’re willing to think he needed that comeback race. I’m one who says he may have just gotten worse.
Selections: 6-1-2
Race 2
#7 Young Bull: One of a couple dropping out of allowance races and was overmatched going off at 50-1 now takes a significant drop into a class level where she had ok success against at Lone Star.
#2 Ten Buds: Another dropping from an allowance and after a maiden claiming win jumped up into stakes and allowance company. He has always had good early foot and might be able to steal this from his rail draw.
#9 Smellin Candy: The first race off the claim for Aidan Green wasn’t as bad as it looked on paper splitting an allowance field and now maybe can improve 2nd off the claim since that debuted number was as good as anything this gelding ran in his previous nine races.
Selections: 7-2-9
Race 3
#2 seeds of time: The last two wins for this daughter of Drosselmeyer have been at the 16K claiming level. She won by more than three lengths in the previous start with a vast 80 Beyer. She is also good at Oaklawn two wins in five starts.
‘
#1 Forevernoa: Big win off the layoff in the mud winning by three plus lengths, and she was claimed by a stable claiming barn. Trainer Chris Hartman has a positive ROI with 40 starters first off the claim.
Selections:2-1-7
Race 4
#5 Forsaken: Good third in the debut at Fairgrounds. It was in the mud, so the Beyer can and should be called into question. Trainer Cherie DeVaux is ok with second-time starters on dirt 2-15=13%. He should get a nice stalking trip from a pace perspective.
#9 Broadway Jerry: This gelding has had a couple of decent works recently. I also really like seeing Santana get the call in the irons. John Prather Jr, not the best with first-time starters 2-31-6%.
Selections: 5-9-11
Race 5
#7 Hardly a Secret: Not much to be said here. It’s Diodoro on a huge dropdown. I look for trainers who have had success with these types, which this barn has in the past. If he runs any Beyer like the last two races, he wins for fun.
Selections: 7-2-6
Race 6
#1 Torin: Big Surface switch for this son of Flashback sire is 14% sprinting on dirt than 4% on synthetic. Trainer John Ortiz is
6-20=30% dropping from MSW to MC.
#11 Stone Secret: This four-year-old improved off the long layoff and switched to Michael Puhich, also showing even more early speed in the mud last time out. The show horse came back to win at the same level next time out. He also gets a significant rider upgrade from Bowen to Arrieta.
#9 Quality Warrior: I’m going to be playing against this M.L. favorite who, like our second choice, can show good early speed. He has only one big race, which albeit came at this track, but the rest of the races on dirt have only been in the ’40s for Beyer’s. Trainer D Wayne Lukas, not the best with class droppers in the maiden ranks
2-29=7%. He usually hits at 9% over the last five years overall.
Selections: 1-11-9
Race 7
Selections: 3-4-7-11
#3 Cabot: Once again, in the Ron Moquett barn, and had his best race since March of last year. His career’s two best races were the first two starts in the same barn, looking for even more improvement as an older horse now. He had some traffic problems in his last and still missed by less than two lengths.
#4 Lullaby Bling: He ran second in our top picks last race and is 12-1 on the M.L. The two best races on this horses page came in February at this track last year. That last race was the first time he has been up for a tag in a long time.
#7 Alex’s Strike: We all know how good Steve Asmussen is first off the claim, and this one more than others like to sprint. The three races at Oaklawn sprinting last year put him in as a contender. It is always good to see Santana take the call being 22% with this barn over the previous two years.
Race 8
#6 Thomas Shelby: Back to back 81’s for this son of Curlin and now takes a class jumping up into allowance company. Now Diodoro adds blinkers looking for more speed out of the gate.
#4 Fastly: This four-year-old ran extremely well first time against winners with a stable second place. He also improved his turn time which can be a hidden angle in six-furlong races. Some negatives are he didn’t get out of the gate that well, but that might have also been due to the track surface.
Selections: 6-4-8
Race 9
#7 Trumpet Lilly: Ran so well second time out stepping up in class after debuting for 20K on the debut. She declined in the mud first off the layoff at Oaklawn last time out. This jockey trainer combo is very good 3-9 with a substantial 4$ ROI.
#5 Marion Francis: Outstanding improvement second time out. She now stretches out for the first time, but being by sire Constitution, it should be no problem.
Selections:7-5-4
