THere’s a nine race card that will end the week of racing at Oaklawn today. The average field size on this program is 10.5 runners per race (not including the AE’s), so there should definitely be some solid wagering opportunities throughout the afternoon. First post will be 12:30 (CT). My time was very limited over the last few days, so I’ll have the grid and a few notes below, but not the normal race by race write up today.
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
|Race||Top Pick||A||B||C||Exotics Menu|
|2||2||2,6||10||9||DBL, PK3, PK4|
|5||14 AE/8||14||1,5,6,8||DBL, PK3, PK5|
|6||4||4,6,12||7||DBL, PK3, PK4|
J’s Little Man (#4) at 20-1 on the morning line is interesting to me in this race. He made his first start of the meet last month against significantly better runners. He followed a similar pattern and ran a much better race when dropping in class for his second start off the bench. If he can duplicate that pattern, I think he’ll be in the mix in this wide open race.
Skyline (#2) is a rebound candidate in this race after failing to fire in a six furlong sprint in the slop last time. He’s better at two turns and could find himself alone on the front end in a race where many of the competitors don’t love to pass horses.
Eastside Cool (#2) drops in class and returns to his favorite track. Four of his five career wins have come on this course. The Asmussen barn has been cold at this meet, whereas the Diodoro barn has been red hot. Diodoro trains two and Second of July (#7) could very easily go off as the favorite in this race. I’m hoping for better value with Eastside Cool.
I’m out on the favorite, Fort Peck (#10) in this race. I think the drop is very suspicious off the layoff. Mulberry Street (#5) was dull in his first start off the Chris Hartman claim when going a one turn mile with better at Churchill last out. He was very good with $10K N2L claimers there two starts back and I expect him to show more today, in a spot where he could offer some value.
If Watch This Birdie (#14) draws in off the AE list, she’s an easy single that appears to tower over her competition. However, if she can’t make it in, this race becomes a total spread race. I’ll look to the second time starter Aunt Cari (#8). Timbavati (#6)is the morning line favorite (without Watch This Birdie). She was five lengths better than Aunt Cari in the mud that day. I think Aunt Cari can make up that ground on a fast track in her second start and the price on the morning line (15-1 compared to 7-5) is far better.
Deluca (#4) makes his second career start for Riley Mott. He debuted in the slop and broke poorly, never getting involved. He draws well and drops in class for his second start. Cristian Torres keeping the mount is an encouraging sign.
Mac Daddy Too (#6) could control the pace on dirt in his first start off the Diodoro claim. His effort at Del Mar two back in an off the turf race at this distance was sharp. Morning line favorite, Mahaamel (#10) is worth covering with, but he’s a different horse on an off track and I see him as vulnerable today. Can’t Hush This (#2) is a live longshot while getting back on a fast track. His effort first off the the claim in the slop wasn’t good, but a repeat of his effort two back puts him right there.
The top four finishers from a race in the mud last month at this condition are back again. Air Combat (#6) was favored that today, but had a rough trip when finishing 4th. I think he can turn the tables on his rivals, who I will cover with in this spot. On deeper tickets, Whelen Springs (#9) ran two monster races last spring, but has come back to Earth a bit. If he can get back to those race on this course, he’ll be right there. At 20-1 or better, he’s worth considering while returning to his favorite track.
Beer Chaser (#2) ran in a sprint here last month. He’s better at two turns and gets a rider upgrade for his second try at this allowance condition here. He’s a consistent runner and this barn had a 60-1 winner on the card yesterday. He might be overlooked with his best races coming in Ohio, but his form stacks up well with this group.
Meet Statistics: Top Pick 23/96 (24%), $171.40, $1.79 ROI
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