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Parx Racing 4/5/21
I will only be handicapping the early pick 4 today as I really like the sequence and think it’s very doable.
Race 1- 1m ½ CLM5000N1Y
Picks- 6-1-2
#6 Salsa’s Return is going to be the favorite here. Ness and Silvera are hitting at 30% and this horse can easily get the distance. He just dominated two penn national fields and seems to be in the best form. This could be a single in the early pick 4 and on some of my tickets he will be.
#1 Dubrovsky is also coming into this race looking for 3 in a row. However, this horse is coming off a long layoff and coming back to run at this long of a distance isn’t a plus in my eyes. I think he can get the distance but I don’t think he will be ready off the layoff.
#2 Rings of Jupiter looks like the farther the better for him. He definitely is one paced as of late but has been doing well as of late. I think he will be there late for a piece and I would include on deep tickets.
Race 2- 5 ½ F CLM5000N2Y
Picks-5-4-7
#5 Bow Town Cat just went gate to wire last time out and personally I think if Rigo Sarmiento breaks clean, he will be sending her again today. For some reason Dexter Haddock doesn’t ride this horse back which I am not a fan of but the jockey switch intrigues me and I will be using it on top.
#4 Gambit’s Girl is going to be the favorite today and rightfully so. She just won by 10 lengths last time out and I think if she gets the lead the race will be hers to lose. I just think there is a lot of pace lined up today and getting the lead won’t be easy.
#7 Trappe Me Later could sit off the pace and make one run today although she prefers going to the lead and letting the field catch her. She prefers a deeper track but I think Ruben Silvera getting the call today will be all she needs.
Race 3- 1M CLM12500B
Picks- 4-3-2
#4 Secret Zar is coming in off the claim for Carlos Soto who has had a huge start to the 2021 campaign. However, when Navin Mangalee gets the call they are 7/17 together and that is huge as Soto only has 9 wins this year. I think when Navin gets the call the horse is live.
#3 Presto Change O is in for Jamie Ness and Ness hasn’t gotten much out of this horse ever. The only reason she has a win is through DQ and I think she just is a hanger. I think she will take money and she will be close today.
#2 My Glory is running for Mario Dominguez now and gets a jockey upgrade in Mychel Sanchez. This will be her second start over the parx surface and I think usually horses improve 2nd time over the surface more times than not. Mychel getting the call is a good sign and I think this horse will be live today.
Race 4- 7F MCL10K
Picks- 10-6-2
#10 Star Luck looks to be the only early speed horse in this field and breaking from the outside post should benefit him. This MCL field is super weak and I think if Victor Carrero can get a clean lead this could be the field he can beat going gate to wire.
#6 Inspired Options is 0/15 lifetime but this horse has faced biased racetracks the last 5 races and personally I think he is a one paced type of horse who would benefit from no bias. I think Scott Lake can have this horse ready to run today and hopefully the track is playing fair.
#2 Del Po will always be in my top 3 until he wins. I think the value on this horse is slowly getting back to the right price range. Silvestre had this horse wide after a bad start last time out so I will let this horse redeem himself today. Hopefully Del Po breaks clean and can make one run off the pace. Must use.
TICKET STRUCTURES.
CHEAP-
R1- 6
R2- 4,5,7
R3- 4
R4- 2,6,10
= $3
AVERAGE-
R1- 1,6
R2- 4,5,7
R3- 4
R4- 2,3,6,10
=$12
DEEP TICKET-
R1- 1,6
R2- 2,4,5,7
R3- 2,3,4
R4- 2,3,6,10
= $48
