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Parx Racing 8/23/21
Parx Pa Day at the Races Top Picks
These selections were made prior to scratches, if any picks are scratched check my twitter out for replacements and on track updates.
Race 1: #10 Dr. Steve
- #10 Dr. Steve is my top pick in this opener. This 2yo race starts off the full card of PA Bred only races and this field is wide open. I don’t pride myself on baby races but this colt was working at Penn National and is shipping in with the Penn National connections of Todd Beattie and Angel Rodriguez who rode the past couple of years at Parx but during 2021 switched his tack to Penn National and has done very well there. This baby out of Jump Start has had a very strong and consistent work tab and has a decent work over a surface with some moisture in it which helps because today there is a good possibility the track will be wet. Todd Beattie doesn’t have a lot of 2yos, let alone first time starters in his barn but he is 2 for 3 with 2yos this year but 0/6 first time out. I do like the fact that his 2yos are winning even if it is not at first asking. 0-6 is a small sample size so I am willing to ignore that and hope the reason they are shipping east on the turnpike is because this horse is better than the quality of 2yos at Penn National.
Race 2- #4 Alpha’s Candy Man
- #4 Alpha’s Candy Man is a value play here as the favorite will be on a lone lead and will be the heavy heavy favorite here. I think this horse improved a ton in his 2nd career start and will only improve with more experience. You will get at least 15/1 on this horse in my opinion and the favorite in this race has given up his lead in both starts late and both starts were at shorter distances, which gives me some worry about the favorite not being able to finish strong enough. I do however, recommend playing the favorite in all horizontals and verticals as he is a very logical horse in this field and the likely winner, but I think the #4 Alpha’s Candy Man is a good price play here.
Race 3- #4 Summary Judgement
- #4 Summary Judgement has a very good and sneaky worktab in my opinion here. Ronald Dandy has been placing his horses very well this meet and Silvestre Gonzalez has been having the best year of his career in 2021. This 3yo has had her best workouts breaking from the gate which shows she isn’t as green as some and should break well. She was bought as a yearling for 40K and looks like she will handle not only dirt but a wet dirt course as well. Her sire won in his debut at Belmont back in 2013. Her mother won 10 out of 43 lifetime starts with 20 of 43 starts in the money. So the breeding is solid even with her father being primarily a turf horse and her mother being a dirt sprinter. I think she will show early speed but if dirt doesn’t work for her today, expect turf down the road.
Race 4- #10 Harbor Crossing
- Harbor Crossing is definitely in my opinion the horse to beat in this weak Maiden 10K claiming race for PA Breds. He looks to be one of the horses if not the only horse on the lead early and he gets the addition of blinkers. This will be the lowest level this horse has run at and this horse gets his second start over the surface today. He crossed the finish line in 1st in debut but was DQ’d from Purse Money most likely due to a positive test in the test barn. This led this horse to face maidens again but those last two races were against way tougher than this. I fully expect this horse to win today.
Race 5- #5 Confirmed Genius
- Confirmed Genius is one of two legitimate contenders for Jamie Ness in this field. I like this one over the other however because this one has a better record at Parx and a better record at Parx as of late. This horse was claimed off of Butch Reid two races ago and then won first off the claim and is ready to win again in my opinion. Frankie Pennington gets the call here and this horse has all 3 wins with Frankie in the irons. Should be tough to beat.
Race 6- #11 Darling Drama
- Darling Drama is also out of Peace and Justice which makes this a sibling to my top pick in race 3 Summary Judgment. This horse however has Flatter on the Dam’s side which is very good for her pedigree. Vladimir Cerin doesn’t send many horses to Parx but this horse attracts Paco Lopez and has been putting up good workouts at Oakridge Training Center in Ocala, Florida. They had this horse stabled at Belmont recently and worked just 4 days ago so I don’t know if this horse necessarily will run today as I am writing this the night before race day but if this horse runs I think this horse will be very tough in this spot and has a good future in front of her.
Race 7- #5 Uncle Ernie
- Uncle Ernie should be undefeated still but was beaten by a neck late to I am Redeemed who is a very game horse and is in amazing form right now for Penny Pearce. Uncle Ernie seems to be the lone speed here or will be in the fight for it early. He is coming off a bullet work back on August 13th and Jorge Vargas Jr. keeps the mount today after riding this horse last time out. He has the highest last time out beyer and the highest career beyer in the field so this horse should just be better than this group on paper.
Race 8- #3 Chub Wagon
- Chub Wagon is a beast, nothing else to really report on this horse. This filly is 8 for 8 and has been dominant in every start no matter the competition or track. She can rate and come off the pace or she can take you gate to wire. The only horse that could possibly beat her on paper is the Brad Cox entrant but she has beaten tougher than that horse before. I think this is a good prep for graded stakes down the road.
Race 9- #1 Trolley Ride
- Trolley Ride is an MTO but this race is off the turf with all the rain overnight and in the morning. Trolley Ride is a dirt horse and also loves an off going. She is in very good form and has a solid record over the parx surface even though she is based at Penn National. There isn’t a bunch of speed in here which is a concern as she likes to close but I think Inoel Beato will have this horse in a perfect spot and ready to win.
Race 10- #7 Irish Cork
- Irish Cork is interesting in this spot. The track might be muddy today and most likely will be wet in one way or another. Vargas Jr. gets the call here today and this horse should benefit from that jockey switch. He has never finished off the board on an off going and he is 13 for 14 in the money at Parx. His career best beyer of 87 was on a muddy going in a non state bred restricted Optional Claiming race. He has won a state bred stakes race before and I think he can win another today. He needs some pace to run at and depending on scratches, he will.
Race 11- #6 Admiral Abe
- Admiral Abe is easily the best dirt sprinter in this field today. This race is now off the turf and that benefits my top pick immensely. He hasn’t ran too many races in his life at this 5F sprint distance but it should only benefit him. The last time he ran at 5F he won by 8 and earned a 101 beyer. He should take this field gate to wire and will be a single for me in the late sequences.
Race 12- #4 Fortheluvofbourbon
- Fortheluvofbourbon should be loose on the lead and he really loves the Parx surface. He gets Paco Lopez again after Paco won on this horse last time out in the mud which could be the surface today. I think slowly this horse is getting into peak form and I think this horse will show that today. Pino has been giving this horse a good amount of time off in between races which I like and it should give this horse more stamina today.