Parx Analysis for Monday, February 22

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Parx Racing 2/22/21

 

Race 1- 1M 70Yards MCL 10K

 

Picks- 3-1-7

#3 Grey Giant seems to be in best form in this weak field and runs for Jamie Ness and gets Ruben Silvera. This combination ran in this exact race but at a flat mile back in January and finished a distant 3rd. I think this field is weak enough where he can win.

#1 End All Get All is shipping in from Laurel in which he was running well against better and also is coming in with better beyers than everyone else in this field. I think he has a shot to win this as well but 0/9 lifetime scares me.

#7 Dr. Grunseich is dropping in from MCL 25K in NY in which he finished last and was never a factor. Blinkers come off and he drops to the bottom and faces a super weak field. I think if he improves, this would be the spot to do that. 

 

Race 2- 6F CLM 16KN2L

 

Picks- 4-3-1

 

#4 Reiterate is going to be on the lead early on and recently shipped to Parx from Gulfstream. She tends to hang and not get the job done, however I think if she gets the lead she can be tough to catch. She struggles with breaking from the gate and I think that will determine where she finishes. 

#3 Ebo Special is now training and running for Jamie Ness off the claim. Jamie Ness is hitting at a 34% clip off the claim this past year and she is returning to the same level she was claimed for but has back class that should win here. 

#1 Ain’t None Lucky also had seconditis but is improving since switching to the Joe Taylor barn and should be sitting behind the leaders and make one run to try and win. Hopefully the early speed falls apart.

 

Race 3- 5 ½ F CLM5KN1Y

 

Picks- 5-8-7

 

#5 Amers is a horse I have been following since before her first start. She started her career training at Parx for Jonathon Wong and then was shipped around for a while and ran a lot out west. Then she was claimed at Turf Paradise early last year by Jeffrey Englehart and was shipped to New York where she won at Finger Lakes and has been regressing since. Today she drops into the bottom again where she looks to find herself once again. 

#8 Bow Town Cat also is a horse that has had a good career and been tossed around from track to track and connection to connection. Since her return to Penny Pearce and Parx she has been running well but has yet to win. She loves parx and I think today could be the day she gets over that hump. 

#7 To the Flag always finishes in the money but has struggled to win over the past couple of years. However, she was willing to try and win last time out but still finished 2nd. I think she will be close today. 

 

Race 4- 1M CLM7500N3L

 

Picks- 4-8-7

#4 Passport Required has gone to the lead the last two starts and she has a win and a close second in which she should have won and was game in defeat. Today she should get a fast track but a track that tends to favor early speed. I like her a lot today.

#8 Fine One Won dominated last time out for Danny Velazquez and was claimed for Michael Pino. However, even after the dominant win and with new connections, she is still running for the same level. I think that is the scary part of backing her at 5/2 ML. 

#7 Enough Love is in today off the claim for Pat Farro. Farro is 16% off the claim which isn’t anything special but I think she can improve this mare. Angel Castillo returns to ride which is a good sign and I think the return to the class is helpful for her. 

 

Race 5- 6 ½ F CLM7500N3L

 

Picks- 3-9-1A

#3 Admiral Eastwood should be on the lead early if Abner Adoro sends him out of the gate. He is dropping back to the correct level and the level he won at 2 races ago. I think he is better at 6F but 6 ½ F shouldn’t be too hard for him to win at. 

#9 Goldenlineof is a sneaky horse and hopefully he can be sneaky today. Since coming to Parx he has been hit or miss with 1 win and 1 second but also a 6th and a 7th. He prefers a fast track which he should get today.

#1A Too Much Johnnie is off the claim for Frank Pollara who doesn’t claim much which is a good sign to me. He must have liked something about this horse in order to consider claiming him for the same level he is running at today. In my opinion he is a good horse to use underneath but I couldn’t play to win at 5/2 ML.

 

Race 6- 1M 70 Yards CLM7500N4L

 

Picks- 5-4-7

#5 Handle With Care has a ton of value to me here at 6/1 ML. She is 2 for 3 at Parx and dominated at this level last time out. The track should be early speed favoring again which is huge as she dominated with the same bias last time out. 

#4 Color Chart is in for Jamie Ness today and she improved a ton last time out running for Jamie Ness for the first time. I think she can even improve more today as well and I think she will go off as the favorite but if she is anywhere near 9/2 ML come post time, then she is well worth the play.

#7 Always the Queen is dropping in a lot here. I usually find that to be a bad sign but Scott Lake is a seasoned veteran in the horse racing game and either he is dropping to win or he is dropping to get claimed. Repole is the owner of the horse and they have tons of horses everywhere including stakes horses so I don’t think they would care if they got claimed for 7500, so the drop doesn’t matter to them. I can’t play on top at 8/5 ML, but I think her odds drift up a tad and she will either win by 10 or run last. 

 

Race 7- 6F CLM25000B

 

Picks- 1-3-7

#1 Cowboy MZ was once a stakes horse in his early years but since the indictments of Marcos Zulueta during the Jason Servis and Jorge Navarro raids, this gelding has barely run as of late. He won in March of 2020 for an open 25K and earned an 89 beyer. However, since that race she has only ran 1 time and it was an OC race at Penn National in which he just stopped and finished last. I think the return to Parx and probable early pace control, gives him a good chance to win here.

#3 Kid d’Oro is the other Jamie Ness entrant here and this horse is dropping in for a tag here but was competing well at the Starter Allowance level. Last time he was in for a tag he won two races in a row in dominant efforts. I think he can do the same today.

#7 Ark in the Dark is in for Joe Taylor and is dropping out of ALW races in which he was almost winning. Today she is in for the tag for the first time since he was claimed by his current connections. He doesn’t win often with only 4 wins in 32 starts but I think he can today.

 

Race 8- 7F MSW

 

Picks- 2-6-3

#2 Midnight Obsession is a First Time Starter for John Servis and Main Line Racing. Her works coming into this race have been really good, especially when she was working from the gate. John Servis is very lackluster as of late with FTS but I think this filly has a really good shot here.

#6 Outline is the other FTS here but for Michael Pino. I had Outline in my top 3 last week and I like her even more here. She scratched last week and I guess pointed here for a better chance at winning. 6/1ML would be a gift.

#3 Ninetypercentbyrnn ran badly in debut but it was in the slop. She then came back to finish a solid 3rd at a mile and closed well. I think 7F might be perfect for her because it is one turn and she can save her energy more. 

 

Race 9- 6F ALW 25000S

 

Picks- 5-7-8

#5 Positive Force is in for Jamie Ness and just finished 2nd in this same race last month. Silvera returns again today and she can show some early speed. If she can get the lead she will win but if she has to sit 3rd or so, she will have to earn it. 

#7 Dreaming Diamonds is Michael Pino’s shot here to win. She is jumping up in class after back to back 2nds in Beaten 25K claiming fields. She seems to be a hanger as of late and that is why she is my 2nd choice. I think she will be close down the stretch and can definitely get a piece of the money.

#8 Above Par is going to be on the lead today in my eyes. She is breaking from the outside post and has early speed in her run style. She folded late in her recent start in the same race last month. However, last time the track had some moisture in it she won easily. Maybe today will be the same.

 

Race 10- 7F ALW25000S

 

Picks- 8-7-4

#8 Thorny Tale is going to be overlooked here as Jamie Ness also has the 7 horse. However, Jagger Inc owns the Thorny Tale and claimed this horse for 12,500 last time out and is jumping up in class today. Jaime Rodriguez is one of Jamie Ness’s go to jockeys on limited mounts. I think this is the better of the two horses in for Ness and the fact this one is off the claim for his top ownership group is key.

#7 Glory Song is the other Jamie Ness entrant. He loves to run 2nd and is returning to the same class in which he finished 2nd. I think he also needs to get the lead in order to win which I don’t know if he gets today. 

#4 Aced is in for Ten Strike and Juan Carlos Guerrero. His numbers aren’t as good as the two Ness horses but is well rested coming into this race. Laprida gets the call today and I think that will help this gelding improve today along with the needed rest. 

 

Race 11- 6F MCL25K

 

Picks- 3-8-10

#3 Saafen debuted back in November and finished 8th after a slow beginning. Today he returns as a 3yo and gets top jockey Mychel Sanchez. I think those two factors alone help improve this colt. This Shadwell colt is dropping in for a tag too which should give this horse added relief when it comes to class.

#8 Bizzy Gillepsie is a FTS for Uriah St. Lewis who is working really well. Laprida gets the call for this horse’s debut which is a good sign. Uriah doesn’t do well the first time out but the fact that he is working so well coming into the debut makes me think today is the day. 

#10 Horse Be With You debuted for 10K and finished 2nd to a winner who dominated the field. James Noble claimed in that race and returns today for 25K. He should be sent early from the outside post. Bisono gets the mount today and that should help improve this horse as well.

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