Parx Analysis for PA DERBY DAY Saturday, September 25th

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Parx Racing 9/25/21

 

Pennsylvania Derby Card

 

Race 1: #4 Darling Donna

  • Darling Donna was my top pick in her debut about a month ago. She was very green and she was on the rail for most of the trip and that day the rail was not where you wanted to be due to the weather. She still rallied up the rail which means to me, that she was much the best in this field. She returns today to a cooler, and dry fall day. Paco stays on the horse and I think she will be tough today 2nd time out.

 

Race 2: #1 Flashing Diamond

  • Flashing Diamond has been my top pick everytime she runs since joining the Jacinto Solis barn and it worked out in my favor 60% of the time. She is in amazing form and she can sit close to the lead or sit off of it. Frankie Pennington knows this horse inside and out and this horse should go off as the favorite and win.

 

Race 3: #7 Sevier

  • Sevier is by far the best horse in this field. You won’t get any value on this horse today but this field isn’t much compared to him. Ness has this horse in peak condition and Frankie Pennington has been giving this horse amazing rides. Should win again today. 

 

Race 4: #12 Motion Picture

  • Motion Picture is the only 4yo going against 3yos here and gets the best jockey in the country right now in Luis Saez. Kelly Breen debuted this 4yo Colt at Monmouth in July and he was very green in the gate and didn’t run too well. However, to return a couple months later on a big day like today and at Parx where the whips are allowed is promising. He also attracts Luis Saez and is the only 4yo in the field. I think that works to his advantage. 

 

Race 5: #8 Gunfighter

  • Gunfighter was just missed in debut to a promising Practical Coach horse last time out. Gunfighter arguably was the better horse. He closed like a rocket and ran out of time and today gets a whole extra furlong. Luis Saez gets the call today and that is another bonus. I think the Breen/Saez/West trio wins back to back MSWs here.

 

Race 6: #5 Trolley Ride

  • Trolley Ride is my top pick, strictly on value and playback ability. This horse faced a bias where you wanted to be nowhere near the rail. Inoel Beato angled this horse in out of the turn instead of swinging out wide to try and make up ground and the horse started running in place and managed to get a strong 3rd. If Beato swings wide he might win. Kendrick Carmouche rides today and should be able to improve this horse with a better trip.

 

Race 7: #4 Thorny Tale

  • Thorny Tale is the best Jamie Ness horse at Parx and Jamie Ness has said it to me before. I don’t know if this horse is as good as Silver State but you will get a price on Thorny Tale. The local horses tend to do better than the shippers and on big days like today I can see Ness stealing a race or two with the local horse. Ruben Silvera isn’t riding the big races but riding these small undercard stakes and I think that will drive his hunger to win even more. 

 

Race 8: #8 Sea Foam

  • Sea Foam dominated state breds at Saratoga and ships to Parx for a 1 and a half miles in the Greenwood Cup. Ten Strike likes to send horses to Parx but to point to this spot means they are confident. Rosario should have this horse in a perfect spot and might even try and go gate to wire. The speed should hold at a distance like this most of the time. Sea Foam might actually be still sitting on a huge effort. 

 

Race 9: #8 Caravel

  • Caravel faced a tougher field last time out at Woodbine in a Grade 1 race. She still managed to hold 3rd at a longer distance. This will also be her second race in the Graham Motion barn which is a big angle to me as horses tend to improve 2nd time out for Motion. This horse is legit. She prefers 5F so the cut back is amazing here. The class relief is also needed and she should be legitimate here.

 

Race 10: #7 Jackie’s Warrior

  • Jackie’s Warrior should dominate here and is much the best in this field. He showed he can sit just off the pace last time out and he is just getting better and better each race. This to me is by far the best 3yo sprinter in the country. Jackie’s Warrior is also getting class relief today and a track where front runners benefit. Should be a paid workout and prep for the Breeders Cup.

 

Race 11: #1 Obligatory

  • I like Obligatory a lot here today. There is minimal pace to run into today but the remaining pace seems to me to not want the given distance today. So if Always Carina gets tired down the stretch, Obligatory is the horse I want to close. She had a horrible start last time out so I threw that race out. Other than that she is getting better in each start and today could be the payoff race. Jose Ortiz is slated to have a huge day here in my book and this could be a huge part of that big day.

 

Race 12: #3 Speakers Corner

  • Speakers Corner is the new shooter in the 3yo race to me. Jose Ortiz rides this one as well for Bill Mott. This horse dominated in his 3yo debut at Saratoga. For them to point to the PA Derby off of that huge victory shows they are confident in this horse and want to see what he is made of. I know it will be hard to beat Hot Rod Charlie but the value and the new face angle is huge here. 

 

Race 13: #5 Papal Law

  • Papal Law is coming out of a strong turf race at Laurel. The horse that won that Laurel race won a race at Saratoga right before that. So the winner is in great form. Noble Commander and Ziggy Mon are also both very solid turf horses. The fact he finished 4th right behind those 3 after having a very slow start to this season, shows to me that this horse is just going to get better this year. Ruben Silvera hops aboard today and should be able to improve this horse. 

 

LATE PICk 5 MANDATORY PAYOUT TODAY

 

R9: 1,4,5,8,9
R10: 7
R11: 1,4,5,6,8
R12 : 3,6,7
R13: 1,5,7,9

= $150.

 

Small Ticket

R9: 1,4,5,8
R10: 7
R11: 1,5,8
R12: 3,7
R13: 1,5,7,9

=$48

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