Parx Analysis for Tuesday, February 23rd

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Parx 2/23/21

 

Race 1- 6F MCL10K

 

Picks- 4-7-5

#4 Brananx is a west coast shipper who is dropping about to the bottom today and is running out of the Danny Velazquez barn. This Cal bred gets one of the top jockeys in Abner Adorno today too which is one of Danny’s go to jockeys. This gelding should take the Parx surface pretty well and the 6F distance seems to be his preferred distance. Adorno should be able to sit right off the slight pace that is lined up today and edge on by down the stretch. 

#7 Iron Lad is dropping in from MCL 25K today which is much needed in order for this colt to win a race. My only worry with him is that he stopped last time out and ran his worst race to date. The fact that Richie Vega drops him and adds his top jockey is intriguing though. 

#5 Nominator is dropping in from MCL25K, and gets a fast track for the first time today. He also is getting Lasix for the first time so this is a lot of positive angles for this young racehorse. He gets weight relief as Pino brings in the apprentice which is a positive as well. Could be sneaky at 6/1ML.

 

Race 2- 1M 70yards CLM8K

 

Picks- 7-4-3

#7 Penance is in 2nd off the layoff today and loves the Parx surface. She is dropping in class and has competed and even won against tougher before the layoff. I think she will go to the lead and if she gets a lone lead, I don’t see how she can be caught. 

#4 Izzadora Bella just missed last time out at the bottom level. Michael Moore puts his horses in the right spots usually so I like this rise in class to an open level. She hasn’t won in over a year but this field is very weak for an open claimer and I think she has a chance to keep her change in form positive.

#3 Galileo’s Affair is a seasoned veteran of the claiming bunch at Parx and she had a really good 2020 but so far in 2021 has two thirds in two starts. She is dropping from Starter ALW company and into CLM company again looking for a win. She will be closing late and hopefully the pace collapses. 

 

Race 3- 7F MCL 10K

 

Picks- 7-1-6

#7 Nikkis Kitten should romp here if she is prepared at all off the year long layoff. The drop in class and switch to dirt is key here. This field is really bad and she should breeze right by them.

#1 American Money is 0/8 lifetime but she has some in the money finishes and her beyers are slightly better than the rest of this field. I’ll expect him to be closing late. 

#6 Almost Evil is 0/15 lifetime which is a super negative. I don’t expect much from her but in this weak field, I can’t pass up on 6/1ML especially with her ability to show some early speed.

 

Race 4- 6F CLM5000N1Y

 

Picks- 2-9-5

#2 Bobcat should be close to the lead today and was in my top picks last time out on the 16th. His return to the races a week later is something I am not a fan of but he should benefit off of the fast surface and could get the lead on his own which is what I am hoping for. 

#9 Truly a Moon Shot is coming off one of his best starts since early winter. He tends to run a good race and follow it by a bad start. Hopefully today isn’t a bad start. Either way I think he has a good shot as a horse to be used underneath in vertical wagering. 

#5 The Italian has not run well at all in her recent 10 plus starts. However, the barn switch and addition of a red hot jockey in Navin Mangalee are positives. I think 8/1ML would be a gift on this horse and I would definitely use him in all wagers because I think he is sitting on a big effort.

 

Race 5- 7F CLM75000N2L

 

Picks- 10-2-1

#10 Running Girl should get the early lead today and be on the lead by her lonesome. She gets blinkers too which should help her. I think this is a perfect spot for her and these connections are very solid as of late. 

#2 Pasatime dominated in her maiden breaking victory and then came back against winners for the first time and finished a solid 3rd. She tries again today and I think she can improve if she isn’t rated and sits further back to make one run. 7/2 will probably be too high of a price on her because I think the public will bet her today so play wisely. 

#1 Carmeltini is in for John Servis and Frankie Pennington. She will have to close late in order to win but she has been able to rate before. 7F might be too short for her today but I think she can be a huge factor in this race. 

 

Race 6- 1M 70 Yards CLM12500

 

Picks- 7-8-3

#7 Tactical Pursuit (IRE) is running for Danny Velazquez for the first time. Danny succeeds at a high rate when he runs 1st off the claim. He adds Adorno as his jockey today which is also his go to jockey. All of these are upgrades and his recent form is not great but I look for him to improve today.

##8 Won the Case was really solid last time out like I predicted back on the 10th where he was my 3rd choice and won. Today will be tougher but I think he has finally returned to that form. I was hoping he would return to last time out. I think he can repeat today if his form is still there. 

#3 Synergized just won last time out for this tag but against a restricted level. Today he faces an open company which will be a tough step up in class for him but I think his recent form should be good enough to compete here.

 

Race 7- 6 ½ F CLM5000N2Y

 

Picks- 9-6-11

#9 Legacy’s Prince has recently shown a total form reversal for Howard Brown Jr. He would have won last time out but was 6wide and just missed. He gets Ruben Silvera today instead of Mychel Sanchez which lately is a positive. I think today he can improve on this form reversal and finally get rid of this level restriction.

#6 Wushu Warrior is going to be going to the lead early which would be ideal on this surface currently. If he can return to that race 2 races ago then he can win against this field as well. He just needs to get the lead in order to do that.

#11 Samadi Sky should be close to the lead today but won’t be quick enough to get on the lead. However, he had a troubled trip last time out, gets Jamie Rodriguez which is an upgrade from the apprentice as well. 

 

Race 8- 6F ALW 45000NC

 

Picks- 6-2-3

#6 Happy Farm will be the controlling early speed today and he just won at AQU in an open 50K claimer. With Jason Servis and the possible cheating for this specific horse, Happy Farm has won a Grade 3 in 2019, but since switching to Linda Rice he has a 5th in a stake and a win for a tag. Today I think he can win again if he gets the lead by himself.

#2 Arch Cat is a really good horse and loves the Parx surface. This is one of Danny Velazquez’s best horses in his barn, and this field is a lot weaker than what this horse has faced and competed with before. I think that if the pace collapses this horse will win effortlessly.

#3 Smooth B is also a horse with class but has been on a layoff for about 4 months. He is a horse that will be going to the lead early on and if he gets the lead which I doubt, could win it all on the front end. I think he will not be quick enough to get the lead but could sit 2nd or 3rd down the backstretch. 

 

Race 9- 1M 70 Yards OC50K/N1X

 

Picks- 7-6-8

#7 Too Boss is one of two Pletcher horses in this field. This PA Bred just broke his maiden at AQU pretty easily and came to Parx to earn that PA Bred Bonus against winners. I think this colt is very talented and the fact that Ruben Silvera gets the call is huge. I don’t see how anyone can beat this horse today.

#6 Bourbonic is the other Pletcher in this field and gets Jamie Rodriguez to ride today. He just won this same race in NY which is better than what the other Pletcher did last time out. However, Bourbonic just isn’t as talented in my eyes. He will end up getting the trip that he wants today which could benefit him. Must be used underneath.

#8 Charlie Five O is Danny Gargans entrant in this race and gets Mychel Sanchez aboard today. He has been facing this competition for the past two starts in NY and comes here to try his luck again. He will be sent early and might earn the early lead himself which could result in an upset win for Gargan’s team. 

 

Race 10- 7F ALW 8000S

 

Picks- 7-9-8

#7 Love on Fire has been on fire as of late. Between 2020 and 2021 she has hit the money 12 out of her last 13 starts with 4 wins included. All of these races came at this level. She has just been dominating this level for well over a year now and I don’t think it ends today. 

#9 Odd Gal is in for Jamie Ness and should be sent the lead early on. Ruben Silvera kept the mount and didn’t get a good trip at all last time out which resulted in a 5th place finish. I think today Ruben will send harder and make sure she gets the lead needed in order to win. 

#8 Stabilize is in for Jeffrey Englehart and just lost to a couple of these horses including #7 Love on Fire last time out in the same race but at 6F. I think this class level is too much for her but I think she still is trying to compete in these fields which is a positive to me. Hopefully she breaks through that wall today.

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