Parx Analysis for Wednesday, August 4th

Playing Parx today? Check out today’s piece by Andrew Rdesinski

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Parx Racing 8/4/21


Parx “Big 5” Pick 5 Mandatory Payout Day Preview


I will be going over each race and also giving out a ticket for the sequence. The sequence is from races 7-11 starting at approx. 3:43pm.


There is $238,859.69 of money carried over from the past weeks and I think this pot will grow to over 500K today.


Race 7:

The first leg of this pick 5 is an open $12,500 claiming race going 1M and 70Y on the turf. Turf races at parx usually include a decent amount of horses with little to no turf experience. However, this field is actually pretty salty on the turf. #4 Elusive Ryder is going to be my top pick and the first must use on the ticket. This horse is coming from Monmouth as of late and in her last start she was steadied at the 5/16th pole and finished 4th. Today she gets Ruben Silvera who is the top jockey, gets the whip again which she hasn’t had since her Tampa Bay Downs days. She will be running off the pace today and yet there is barely any early pace, she has been running a lot closer to the pace since joining the Darien Rodriguez barn. #6 Monaco Princess is also a must use simply based on the good possibility she will be the only horse on the lead down the backstretch which gives her a good chance to go gate to wire against this group. Her most recent turf start she had to duel early and then she faded to 8th as the race went on. Since joining the Joe Taylor barn, they have been trying her on turf but in the 2 races only one has been on the turf due to recent weather troubles. Even the race they claimed her out of was at this level on the turf but it was rained off. Other horses I would use here are #3 Natoma, #8 Frisky Feeling, and #12 Superling. 


Race 8:

Race 8 is a good old CLM5000N2Y which is for horses who have not won 2 races since February 4th 2021. This is another 1M 70Y race as well but on the dirt. This field is really lackluster and even with top trainers and top jockeys these horses are old and do not have much in the tank. I’ll start with the #7 Boat Over the Hill who is the youngest and most lightly raced horse in the field. Michael Pino has been on fire the past 2-3 weeks and he likes to put horses in the right spots so after this horses recent starts against tougher, I can see why he dropped this horse in for the bottom condition and price tag right now. Two of the last 4 races for this horse have been with an apprentice in the irons and a 7 pound apprentice at that and those two races have been by far the best races this horse has had under Pino. Today they bring an apprentice back. This time is Luis O. Hernandez who is newer to parx but has been riding well since coming here. There is a good chance the bug boy will be having this horse pressing the leaders today as he is aggressive early in races. The other horse I like in this field is #6 Factor This In for Jamie Ness and Frankie Pennington. This horse has completely fell apart in his efforts since Jamie Ness had this horse run 7F on May 3rd. I think this horse wants shorter but the class drop is ideal for this horse. Ness doesn’t usually drop horses to the bottom but you can’t leave Ness off your tickets and this horse has back class and previous races that blow this field away. Other horses I recommend using are, #3 Finglas and #8 American Roma.


Race 9:

Race 9 is a starter allowance race going 5F on the turf. #7 American Talent for Ed Coletti and with Anthony Nunez in the irons seems very tough in this group. He is really good at this distance on the turf and Nunez has been riding very well since coming back from his injury that has kept him out for multiple weeks during a few periods of this year. They have been trying to run this horse at 5F on the turf for the last 3 races and only one stayed on the grass and that was against this same class and distance and he won in the shadow of the wire. He is in amazing form right now and I think he can win again. #9 Call Wil loves the Parx turf and loves the sprint distance. This horse is jumping up in class and will be one of the favorites but he is finally returning to Parx after being at Penn National for the previous two races. The return to Parx and it being the 3rd race off of a 7 month layoff and in each race since the return he has improved is one of the main reasons I think he is sitting on a huge effort. Other horses I would use are #8 Spikes Shirl and #10 Hollywood Talent. 


Race 10:

Race 10 is a 6F sprint for OC16K or SAL12K company. This is the field where you can single the heavy favorite in my opinion and I will be doing just that. The favorite in here is one of the fastest horses on the backside at Parx. #3 Sevier is the 3-5 ML favorite for Jamie Ness and Frankie Pennington. Since coming to Parx from Oaklawn and joining the Jamie Ness barn this horse has won 3 straight Starter Allowance races by a combined 13 and a half lengths and no one has passed this horse in all 3 starts as he has been winning in gate to wire style in all 3 races. No one else is even close to this horse when it comes to getting an early lead and I think this field will be fighting for 2nd about 5-7 lengths behind Sevier today. 


Race 11:

The final leg of this sequence is for horses who haven’t won a race since February 4th, 2021 and are in for the bottom tag. There are 4 horses I would use in this last leg of the sequence. #4 Seat of Honor is my top pick. This horse’s last two races were against 10,000N1X company in which he has earned two distant thirds in both races. Today Angel Castillo gets in the irons who rode this horse primarily before the short layoff in the spring. The drop in class and return to Castillo might be all he needs to win. He is a plotter who just runs at one pace most of the time but I think the drop to the bottom level and the return of the jockey who has won on this horse not too long ago against Starter Allowance company is what this horse needs to get the job done. #5 Worth His Salt is a longshot play here to close out this pick 5. He is the only early speed horse in this field and with the apprentice Courtney Giraldo aboard who is very solid on the lead and especially when she can get a lone lead, I think this horse’s chances are very solid for the ML odds she is portraying today. This horse has not run since late May and has not won since November of last year in this same exact level and distance. I think this horse gets more confidence when he still has the lead turning for home and I think if no one else surprisingly sends today, there is a good chance he can get that type of trip turning for home today. #2 Starship Aramis came rolling late at Monmouth last time out against Beaten 5K company and finished 2nd. I think if Salgado was allowed to use the whip in that race, this horse would have won and that was against a tougher group of horses. I think this is a good spot for this horse and the only other start at Parx is a race you can cross out as he stumbled badly out of the gate against this same class level and never tried after the poor start. The recent race proves he has some race left in the tank and I think today he can show that. Finally #7 Three Phase seems to be a horse needing the drop to the bottom level and sitting on a big effort if he gets the class relief. Ronald Dandy has been training and putting his horses in good spots as of late and a jockey like Jann Hernandez who doesn’t ride that much anymore should be trying his hardest today. He didn’t lose by much against a slightly tougher class last time out but I think if he can return to that form he had when Dandy first got this horse in early spring, he can beat this bunch. 


My main ticket structure for the Pick5 


Race 7: 4,6,12

Race 8: 3,6,7,8

Race 9: 7,9

Race 10: 3

Race 11: 2,4,5,7


50c. = $48 


Deep Ticket

Race 7: 3,4,6,8,12

Race 8: 3,6,7,8

Race 9: 7,8,9,10

Race 10: 3

Race 11: 2,4,5,7


50c = $160


Cheap Ticket

Race 7: 4,6

Race 8: 6,7

Race 9: 7,9

Race 10: 3

Race 11: 2,4,5,7

50c = $16

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