Parx Analysis for Wednesday, December 29th

Playing Parx today? Check out today’s piece by Andrew Rdesinski

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Parx Racing 12/29/21

 

Parx “Philly Big 5” Sequence

 

Today is closing day for the 2021 season at Parx and that means there is a mandatory payout of the Philly Big 5 Jackpot pick 5 sequence. Ton of money is already in the pool and it will only get bigger. Today I will try to tackle this sequence. 

 

Race 6

  • The first leg of this sequence is quite a race. This final race week at Parx, Parx has had these Starter Allowance races that aren’t the usual Starter Allowance type of races. The Parx condition book writers wrote these races to help out the local connections with added purse money for cheaper horses and thus it has drawn a full field of 14 with no true stand out. The first horse that caught my eye was the #1 Double the Heart for Felix Flores-Coba. This horse was a Woodbine horse that has now been shipped to Parx and is trying a dirt course for the first time. The track may be a little muddy as it has rained over the past 12 hours so the course might fit his criteria today. Flores-Coba is 18% when sending out horses for the first time in his barn. I think the inside post will help him get a good position and should be a solid price. The 2nd horse I looked at was #6 Didn’t Do It for Steve Klesaris should be lone speed and with Carol Cedeno that alone is why I like this horse. Carol Cedeno doesn’t ride here much so when she does I always take a look and this one seems legit.  #13 Six Cider is a horse I normally would fade at a short price due to the lack of Parx form and abundance of good Penn National form. Penn National form(With 0 Parx Form) usually does not carry over when running to Parx. However these connections are good and they get the apprentice Andy Hernandez who has been riding very well as of late. Should be a tough favorite and a horse I would use. #14 D T Goodie has a ton of back class that should tower over this field. This horse was great when with Joe Taylor but eventually lost his form and was shipped to a different trainer after being claimed. Then this horse went to former jockey and now trainer Josue Arce. Arce has been putting his horses in good spots and they have been running well and I think this horse will be another example of that. The post position sucks but I think Berrios will be able to break sharp and get over with this horse’s tactical speed and back class. 

 

Race 7:

  • #1 Janelle Dreams should benefit from the rail post today as the most recent couple of starts this horse’s trip was ruined by wide rallies out of the turn and she still finished 2nd in back to back troubled trips. This horse should be a little bit more forwardly placed and hugging the rail which should lead to a possible winning effort with Frankie Pennington in the irons. #6 Indian Bella might be the lone speed in here as there really isn’t a pace scenario at all. Luis Rodriguez Castro started his career at Parx and rode this circuit well here as an apprentice but has tried the big leagues the past couple years with little success. Today the Kantarmaci crew bring him down here to ride this horse. With the ability to break sharp, and the wet surface today or the possibility of one, this horse could go gate to wire and she definitely doesn’t mind the off track. Finally in this race, I would recommend to take both Lou Linder horses in the #11 Forest Halo and #12 Piquet. Both are shipping from Woodbine and in the Linder barn for the first time. Both are being ridden by jockeys with the same agent with Ruben Silvera being on the #11. Woodbine form to Parx form usually works with Lou Linder as he does this every year. If you use one you have to use both as they are similar in quality to me and both will be solid prices. 

 

Race 8: Parx Futurity

  • #3 Stand Up Comic is a Practical Joke filly who won in debut here at Parx over the summer and then won at Delaware right after. However, the connections for some reason pointed to the turf in NY for the last two starts. The one race on the yielding course was solid but the the race off the layoff was horrible. I think this horse wants dirt and specifically a longer 1 turn race which she gets with 7F today. Frankie Pennington gave this horse her best start to date and returns today. Should be tough in this spot. #8 Captainsdaughter should be sitting on a big effort here today. Last 3 starts this horse was coming from the clouds at huge longshot prices and hitting the exacta. Trevor McCarthy is a father now as his newborn arrived over the holiday and this I believe is his first stake as a father. I expect this horse to come from the clouds and there is some speed lined up that should help her today. #10 Miss Interpet is the Todd Pletcher entry here today and gets Kendrick Carmouche in the irons. This horse should outclass this field but these type of horses don’t ship well to Parx and could be a bad favorite. However, this horse seems to be the goods and should be able to get a good trip with KC in the irons. 

 

Race 9: Parx Juvenile

  • #7 Practical Coach ran a very good race in each of his 4 career starts. He seems to have trouble passing horses late but in his debut he went to the lead and never looked back but was almost caught late as he was green. Today they give him blinkers and with his already proven ability but lack of focus late, I think the blinkers take this horse to the next level. Should be tough here. #8 Script is the other horse I like as my A horses here. Script seems to be a classy horse but only has a maiden win. This horse got loose pre race and then still won easily even after a bad break. I think this horse could be a single and could be the best horse in this field. His ability is there, but his youth also seems to show. 

 

Race 10:

  • #1 Moon Pistol is one of my 4 horses I like to close this tough sequence out with. Mario Dominguez got this horse recently and this horse has improved after switching barns. Anthony Nunez is one of the more underrated jockeys at Parx and would be in top 4 if it wasn’t for his injuries this year. The inside post will help this horse get better position and in a wide open field these are connections I want on my ticket to close out a big score. #2 Cigar Box was a spot play of mine in his most recent start. Ruben had this horse rolling late last time out and just didn’t have enough racetrack to win. He gets a whole extra furlong today and that could be the difference maker with Ruben in the irons again. #4 Monday’s with Mike is going to be one of the favorites here and rightfully so. He could be loose on the lead here with Julio Correa who is an aggressive rider. Lou Linder has this horse in the right spot as well and I think this horse is in the best form in this field. Should be a legitimate contender. Finally the longshot I like in this field is the #8 Weekend in Court. Weekend in Court is one of those horses with a boom or bust run pattern. This should be the race he booms. Every time he trails throughout, the next race the horse comes from the clouds at a huge price and hits the board. He won in this cycle in June and I think today he could win again. I don’t expect anything under 15/1 odds wise and if he is the one that wins and closes us out, we might get a huge payday or at least should. 

 

Main Ticket for Today

 

R6: 1,6,13,14

R7: 1,6,11,12

R8: 3,8,10

R9: 7,8

R10: 1,2,4,8

= $192

 

Cheaper ticket

R6: 1,6,14

R7: 1,6,11,12

R8: 3,8,10

R9: 8

R10: 1,2,4,8

 

= $72

 

Both tickets are pricey but this sequence has value and it should pay well. Best of luck to those following along.

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