Parx Analysis for Wednesday, February 17

PTF posting for Andrew Rdesinski

Race 1- 4-6-7

#4 Fed Policy is looking for 2 straight wins and ships in for Claudio Gonzalez from Laurel. Seems to be in best for this field and rightfully the ML favorite
#6 Abaco Dream is also looking for two in a row but is a deep closer that had his way last time out. This track isn’t to friendly to closers currently but if the pace is strong this could unfold for her.
#7 Lil Miss Hotshot should be sent from the outside post, and ships in from Gulfstream. Her form is really bad right now, but the ship to parx and change of trainers could be all he needs in this weak field.

Race 2- 7-8-3

#7 Spun Run is in for Jamie Ness and is dropping to the bottom here to look for a win. If she can return to her Keenland form she had in her debut then she can win here going away.
#8 Mutannaahy is a Shadwell filly for Pino but doesn’t seem to be much of a classy horse as she debuted for 10K and returns to this same level today. However, her debut was promising but obviously not promising enough to have the connections raise her up a little in class but in this field I’ll take her as a 2nd choice.
#3 Kirk’s Girl is coming off a horrible effort last time out and returns to this level again. Mychel Sanchez returns which is a good sign and I think he has a chance to be sent early if no one else goes. Could be a good piece underneath.

Race 3- 5-3-7

#5 Sargeant Drive is turning his form around as of late and I think it’s solely because of Mychel Sanchez. I think today they put it all together and get over that hump.
#3 Naughty Prince is first off the claim for Harold Wyner who has had a cold start to the year but this week has picked up a win or two which is a good sign moving forward. He seems to be one of the early speed horses here and for a track that is biased to early speed currently , I like his chances.
#7 Roan Mountain is dropping slightly and has been hit or miss lately. Today I think he will show up and put in a good effort, must use underneath.

Race 4- 7-10-9

#7 Green Growth is should be sent early with Adorno aboard. Scott Lake is dropping him to the bottom here in order to either get rid of him or to win and I’m hoping to win. I like his chances on the front end today.
#10 City Guy just missed last time out in the last race
and returns today for the same connections. City Guy is another horse going to the lead today and depending on who gets it, will determine who wins.
#9 Jane’s Factor has good breeding since he is out of The Factor. However, he doesn’t get to the lead like The Factor’s babies tend to do. I expect improvement 2nd off the layoff here.

Race 5- 6-3-8

#6 Shooger Ray Too should be sitting mid pack and I think he is in really good form currently which I like. Hopefully he doesn’t get shifted back too far as this track isn’t helping closers.
#3 Mr. Roundtree is in for Phil Aristone and has Mychel Sanchez aboard. He is coming into this race 2nd off the layoff and looks to improve off the the layoff again. He should improve here and hopefully doesn’t run into a horse like Breezy Gust this time who romped the field they were in last time out.
#8 Welling is in with an upset chance. He can go to the lead but he is more of a pressing type of horse, and hopefully the Apprentice can give him a comfortable and smart trip in order to win.

Race 6- 3-9-2

#3 Mach Trial is my top choice and seems to be a very up and down horse. However, if the trend is true to form then we should be sitting on a positive effort here today and hopefully Angel Castillo can keep him close without getting him in trouble.
#9 They Shot Sonny is a horse I have been watching race for years. They Shot Sonny is a classy horse compared to this field and has seen a lot tougher in his day. Jamie Ness has this horse improving and is coming off a win against CLM7500N1Y company and jumps up to open company now. I think he can win again today if he stays true to form.
#2 Mr Classical, gets the red hot Navin Mangalee and has been in a roller coaster of form lately but has two wins in the last 6. Hopefully he wins again today.

Race 7- 1-7-9

#1 Audience of One, is looking for 3 in a row, and looks to be one of the early speed horses here. If Navin can go to the lead with this horse, then I don’t see how they get caught.
#7 My Man Elvis is going to be a good price here and is looking to win his 3rd race in 4 starts, which is really solid for a horse who is 10/1 ML. He should be pressing the leaders to make one run.
#9 Earthquake, will be flying late, which could be his downfall if the bias is still there. If the pace collapses, I think Earthquake will be flying late.

Race 8- 6-1-4

#6 Unbridledadventure scratched out of her race yesterday for this easier spot. I liked her yesterday but I like her a lot more today. Even though she is a closer, I think she can get the trip and should be good enough to win.
#1 Its a Journey is apart of the Jamie Ness entry here which look to be tough to beat. This part of the entry is shipping in from Maryland and can sit close the lead if needed which will be needed today in order to make a contested run.
#4 Penance is going to be sent early by Mychel Sanchez but I don’t know if she is good enough to beat this field. However if she can play to the bias then it won’t matter how classy she is, because the track will carry her to the winners circle.

Race 9- 7-2-1

#7 Knockout Kick is looking for his 4th dominant win in a row. He should be on the lead early and will be hard to catch if he gets his way on the front end. His beyers are also on the rise and if this horse shows anything from his previous romps then he should win easy here too.
#2 Breezy Gust, is another early speed horse who will look to try and go toe to toe with #7 Knockout Kick. However, I don’t think he will be able to out run the favorite. I do think the bias will keep him in contention late despite the predicted fast fractions.
#1 Royal Urn is my third choice in here and I like him because If the pace setters dual early on then someone will need to close and if anyone is going to close and make a legitimate run it is this guy.

Race 10- 2-4-7

#2 Dig Charlie Dig will be making one run late in here and definitely the classier of the bunch here. Jamie Ness trains him and like I always say, Jamie Ness is red hot and will have this horse ready.
#4 Call Me Daddy will be pressing the leaders down the backstretch and making one run at the top of the turn. He needs the race to fall in his lap though which could be his downfall.
# 7 La Wuan is going to be on the lead early and could go gate to wire if no one else goes with him. I think he might not be super quick though out of the gate which will be an issue. If he breaks clean and breaks on top, I think he has a shot to win.

Race 11- 12-4-5

#12 Grandfire will be on the lead early without a doubt. He quits usually but with the track bias, I think it will be hard for him to fold late. If he can stick to his task today then he wins.
#4 Del Po was a horse I actually played back in September when he finished 2nd at 30/1. I think Del Po is the best in this field and we will never see 30/1 again while he is in these ranks. Del Po gets Silvestre Gonzalez today who is an upgrade from the recent jockeys on him. 2nd off the layoff and the addition of a good jockey means this horse might win for fun.
#5 Trusted Redemption is in for George Albright coming down from Penn National but gets Mychel Sanchez which is a huge upgrade. I think the weak class history and lackluster results will leave this horse at 10/1 or higher but Mychel Sanchez might bring those odds down to 6/1. Either way I expect improvements.

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Further reading

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