Parx Analysis for Wednesday, June 1st

Playing Parx today? Check out today’s piece by Andrew Rdesinski

Follow him on Twitter at : Phillyboy415

Parx Racing 6/1/22

 

Parx Philly Big 5 Mandatory Payout

 

Race 7: 9-2-8

  • The first leg of this very tough sequence should go one of three ways. The first type of outcome would be one in where #9 Breezy Gust going gate to wire and honestly I think that might be the most likely outcome as he should be lone speed. The second most likely outcome is that Jamie Ness wins off the claim today as he does so well with a good classy horse in #2 He Hate Me. He Hate Me should be able to take the Parx track well and Frankie Pennington riding for Ness is typical so I like this spot for He Hate Me. The final outcome I could come up with is if multiple horses go to the lead early and the pace collapses, #8 Float On should be sitting about 3rd or 4th on the backstretch and if the pace collapses this race, could fall into his lap. Luis Riverah had this horse flying late last time out in the slop but just couldn’t get the job done, I think the return to the fast track could be key. 

 

Race 8: 4-7-5

  • I would recommend you could only use 4 and 7 here but I think the 5 can be sneaky here. #4 Maclean’s Legacy just missed last time out and should be more fit and in a good spot turning for home to make his usual one move out of the turn. #7 Its About My Time could get loose on the lead early and has been in good form as of late for Penny Pearce. He is a hanger but if he can get that early lead by himself, he could be tough to catch. #5 Explain came rolling late last time out with apprentice Jose Gomez at 12/1. I think if the 7 starts to get tired late, he could be one of the horses coming from far back to try and get up in the shadow of the wire. These races are wide open so I can’t leave a red hot apprentice off my ticket that got this horse almost in the winners’ circle last time out.

 

Race 9: SINGLE 6 

  • #6 Instinctive is going to be probably a lot of people’s single in this sequence which worries me from a betting standpoint, however from a handicapping standpoint, this horse is much the best in this field. M3 Racing points their horses to good spots and good spots only and this horse is actually dropping in class a ton compared to her last race which she almost took down a field in NY at 32/1 and she outfinished a Chad Brown horse that was bet well. She is also 1 for 1 at Parx where she won a similar race to this with Paco in the saddle just like today. Should be tough to beat here.

 

Race 10: 4-3-7

  • This race is a tough race but I think you can use the two Jamie Ness entrants and Geebert as a price, #4 Vulcan didn’t like the turf last time out. He like to be in the front and on the dirt and showed that at Oaklawn earlier this year. Now in the Ness barn for the 2nd time and Ness realized that dirt sprinting is his game. I think Frankie hopping on this one should be a good sign and this horse should be tough. #3 Geebert loves this time of year. This time last year he was running low 80 beyers against way tougher competition than today. Towards the end of last year he regressed a ton as the weather changed This led to a layoff and then Mosco brought him back about 2 weeks ago and he finished in the winners’ circle for a beaten 25k claiming race. 2nd off a layoff and a jump up in claiming level for a red hot barn in Mosco should be all signs leading to a win again today. Finally #7 Fast Breakin Cash is the other Ness entrant for JKX Racing and with jockey Kendrick Carmouche in the saddle. This horse was claimed out of Sam Houston last time out in March and has been given time off since. Ness crushes it with horses first off the claim and JKX has been doing the same as an owner when claiming horses and shipping them to Parx. I think Kendrick coming in to ride this one is a huge sign as well.

 

Race 11- 5-4-9-1

  • This last race is a DOOZY. Not a single horse has even ran on the turf in this field ever. These are a bunch of underwhelming maidens that are all trying the turf for the first time. I dove into some pedigree stuff for every horses and these 4 stuck out the most. #5 Husky Spirit for Mike Aro and Abner Adorno is a KY bred who has a Grandsire and a DamSire who are both Turf winners overseas, and the Grandsire was Sea The Stars who was a group 1 winner over in Europe and one of the best of that time frame. Her parents weren’t anything special and were lightly raced but the pedigree is one of the best in the field and I think she has a legitimate shot first time out. #4 is Bitterswt Symphony, who has a lone advantage over this field. She hasn’t tried the turf but she has a race over a synthetic course which is a step above these dirt figures of others in the field. Synthetic form can carry over to the turf a lot easier than people think. She will be the favorite in this race and Paco and Joe Taylor should have this one ready to go. #9 Melitza is the most interesting in this field. The pedigree is sneaky good on the turf but the connections are very small. Welgella is primarily a top PA dirt sire as of late with the likes of Beren and Smooth B for Robert Reid Jr. However he is still a 12% turf sire. Welgella was a solid turf horse in his own and the Granddam was also a very solid turf horse from 2009-2011. The dam isn’t much of the factor here but the fact her mom was good on the turf helps her cause. Should be a price here to close it out as well. Finally the #1 Viente has some turf breeding but not a ton but could be another price to use. Andy Hernandez has been riding well and Bobbi Ann Hawthorne is 11% on the turf and 31% in the money on the turf with a very good ROI in 35 starts with 15 unique horses. Could surprise this field from the rail.

 

ALL IN ALL my Pick 5 ticket is a $54 ticket


R7: 2-8-9
R8: 4-5-7
R9: 6
R10: 3-4-7
R11: 1-4-5-9

50c wager= $54 ticket. 

 

BEST OF LUCK and LET’S CASH!

Leave a Reply

1 comment
  • Andrew – thanks for the research on the pedigree in the last race. Had a hunch on Husky Spirit but you sealed the deal for me. Nice win! Thank you again for your research

Further reading