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Parx Racing 9/1/21
I will only be doing the early pick 4 today as the rain forecasted today is the remnants of Hurricane Ida and the main part of the storm is supposed to be hitting the parx area around 2-3pm. If it is as bad as they say it will be, Parx will most likely cancel halfway through the card. If they continue to run I will be posting race by race picks on my twitter.
Race 1- 6-1-4
- This race is really weak even for a bottom level maiden claiming race. The favorite #6 Wick is a Jamie Ness horse that he claimed out of Churchill Downs on May 7th and has yet to bring him back to the races since. He brings this horse back today in the same level but against probably much weaker horses. The track will be muddy if not sloppy by post time and this horse might win back class alone. The other horse I think can be sneaky here is the #1 Crossover on the inside. This horse was also claimed out of a Maiden 10k last time out and running back about a month later for the same condition. Today Harold Wyner adds blinkers and gives Adam Bowman a shot with the horse. This horse has some off track breeding and should be more focused with the addition of blinkers. Finally the #4 Blazing Island doesn’t have much wet pedigree but does have the early speed advantage today as he should be the only horse close to the lead today if not controlling it. Usually on days where the track is wet, the front runners are always tough to catch. Today could be another day of that.
Race 2- 5-2-1
- This race looks to be another version of the Jamie Ness show on paper but when you put in the factor of the wet track, I think the #5 Admiral Eastwood will be tough. This horse loves the off track and Haleem Lee has had a really solid past month of racing. He also seems to run more on the front end in those off track races which will help today. #2 Tappin Honor is in for Jamie Ness and looks to be close to the lead today. He finally got a win last time out against weaker at Delaware. This will be his first race on a surface other than turf or a fast track. His breeding suggests he won’t mind it. Ruben Silvera getting the call is obviously a good but expected sign here. #1 Rules was a horse I liked yesterday and this spot is the easier spot and I understand why the connections pointed here instead. This horse also will be on the lead if not the lone lead, and will be able to handle the wet surface just as good as anyone else in here. These 3 are the only horses you want in here, and there will be a version of my pick 4s where we single Ness in both the first two legs in case it chalks out.
Race 3- 2-4-1
- Jamie Ness might sweep the early pick 3 of Pick 4 today. This is another Ness horse I expect to be on the lead today and has some half decent wet track pedigree. #2 Maybe After Later will be tough to catch if they let him get a loose lead. #4 Charles Safari will be also tough here and could go off the favorite. This horse ran his best race by far 2 back in the slop and gets the slop again today. Angel Castillo will just need to have this horse closer today in order to run down the early pace setters. #1 Midlaner also ran its best race 2 back on a track with moisture in it. It wasn’t as wet as what today will be but the fact Midlaner ran an 80 beyer against tougher on a good surface gives me hope this horse will only improve today.
Race 4- 12-1-9
- Sure you could probably play a $5 pick 5 all Jamie Ness horses and have a good chance at hitting this sequence cold but with this race coming off the turf, the MTO #12 Street Tail should draw in. This horse loves the slop and should be on the lead early from the outside post. If Ruben Silvera takes this mount, you can almost guarantee this horse is going to be the best in the field, if he takes the Ness horse then maybe Ness has the better option. #1 The Want of a Nail won last time out in a race that came off the turf and was on a sloppy track. Sure, the race was at Penn National but it was a tough field and the horse ran a huge race. Today he gets Silvestre Gonzalez who rides well in wet conditions which makes him an upgrade from the previous jockeys. #9 Fort Fortitude will be tough here for Jamie Ness as usual. His career best beyer came on the wet surface which just shows how good this horse is on wet surfaces. He doesn’t have much experience at Parx but the return to Parx is always a good angle.
Pick 4 Tickets
NESS PICK 4
$5 Base
R1: 6
R2: 2
R3: 2
R4: 9
=$5 or whatever you the player can afford, will be chalky but worth it.
Cheap Ticket
Race 1: 1,4,6
Race 2: 1,2,5
Race 3: 1,2,4
Race 4: 12
= $13.50
Main Ticket
Race 1: 1,4,6
Race 2: 1,2,5
Race 3: 1,2,4
Race 4: 1,9,12
= $40.50
