There will be clues for The Kentucky Derby and Oaks on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. You can check out my full writeup of the Holy Bull here, and in this space I’ll go through the Grade 3 Forward Gal. This race kicks off Saturday’s Sunset Six, an exciting new bet that includes the last three from GP and the last three from Santa Anita on every day both tracks are running. The terms are very favorable to players and it’s well worth a look.
#1 MUSIC BURST
Luis Saez | Rusty Arnold
Old-school trainer Rusty Arnold often brings his horses into to form slowly and that’s what it looks like is happening with this one. In figure terms, she’s improved in every start, and there’s been a lot of horses out of the last race that have improved their numbers subsequently. She’s back on dirt and must deal with more ground here. She projects a stalk and pounce trip and is a contender.
#2 TESSELLATE
Junior Alvarado | Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Multiple stakes winner will be sure to take plenty of money in here based on both her form and high-flying connections. She’s been at her best in these extended sprints and is another who might have the right style for this. On the downside, there are some faster fillies, early and late, than what she’s been facing. I’m not wildly opposed but I think she’s likely to be overbet.
#3 SECANE
Micah Husbands | Saffie Joseph, Jr.
She’s been in the money in listed stakes the last two times, both in one-turn miles. The turnback to seven, at which she broke her maiden, will probably suit her. I don’t see this is a great situation for her because if she assumes her customary position near the front, she’ll be going a lot faster than she typically does and that’s a worrisome situation for a horse like this who is already a questionable finisher.
#4 MYTHICAL
Edgard Zayas | Jorge Delgado
Florida-bred has been beating up on her own kind at microscopic odds. This will be a real test for her. She is a Grade 3 winner against open company and was actually bet pretty hard at G1 level last year at the Spa. In that spot she went out too fast, gassed out, and stopped to a walk. It isn’t clear that she’s improved – her best figs were in her second and third starts as an early/mid season two-year-old. She’s got a push-button look, meaning she can make her own trip, and the recent figures fit well enough, but she’s another I’m worried will be bet more than her chance of winning.
#5 SNEAKY GOOD
Tyler Gaffalione | Brad Cox
She’s a perfect two for two including a listed stakes win. The fields she faced were both very modest, as evidenced by the modest figures she ran and the slow figures her competition has put in since. The extra furlong should be no issue and she’s in the right hands but I worry she’s just not fast enough.
#6 ON TIME GIRL
Irad Ortiz, Jr. | Brad Cox
NOT a hunch play for my wife. The second Cox entrant comes here with the field’s highest last out Beyer, an 82. It was earned at listed level, courtesy of an easy trip bur having said that, I really like the way she finished up in there and there are early indications that the form might be OK (sixth-placed finisher came back to run third at listed level and all three runbacks have seen figure improvement). She’s improving and could get the right kind of stalking trip from this post, ultimately proving to be the best speed. Maybe I’ll tell Susan to bet her anyway.
#7 HOLLEN DRIVE
Jorge Ruiz | Will Walden
First-level allowance winner wasn’t overly impressive visually or on the clock but it’s notable that the two to run back (the last and second last finishers) improved mightily fig wise to run 1-2 in a 30k claimer. She had a great setup in there, and could get one again, but she’s another who just doesn’t look fast enough.
#8 IMPERATRICE
John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher
500k City of Light took a big step up at the second time of asking, dispatching a modest field. She’s a bit like a TEMU version of On Time Girl in that she had an easy trip but finished well. In Imperatrice’s case, the company was easier and the fig came back slower. The positive case for Imperatrice is that you can argue she’s less exposed having just the two starts to On Time Girls’s four. She should exactly the type of grinding trip Johnny V does best and is a contender.
VERDICT: I’ll make #6 ON TIME GIRL the main selection and she’ll be an A-level contender. I’ll also use #8 Imperatrice as an A.
In terms of backups, #1 Music Burst will get some play and include #4 Mythical defensively, but she’ll still be present on plenty of tickets.
