15 previous winners of the Florida Derby have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, so this is always a race that is worth paying close attention to. Needles was the first in 1956 and Always Dreaming was the most recent winner in 2017. Maximum Security won this race before crossing the wire first in the Kentucky Derby in 2019, only to be disqualified. Tiz the Law won this race the following year and went on to win the Belmont in June, which was the first leg of the 2020 COVID Triple Series. While he didn’t win the Florida Derby last year, Mage, parlayed his second place finish in this race to a Kentucky Derby victory five weeks later.
Like last year, Todd Pletcher’s two year old champion, is the morning line favorite in this race. Fierceness will try to follow in the footsteps for Forte, who won this race from an outside draw last year. However, Forte came into this race with a strong win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Fierceness on the other hand, was last seen finishing a dull third place in the Holy Bull Stakes. He’s set to have a rematch with Hades, who won that race. This duo will avoid having to deal with Dornoch, who was the winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes four weeks ago. Danny Gargan is going to wait a week and run him against Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass at Keeneland.
Post time for this race, which will be the conclusion of a marathon 14 race card, is scheduled for 6:42 (ET).
Gulfstream Park, Saturday 3/30/24, Race 14: The Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘N’ Dale at Xalapa
200 Total Derby points (100/50/25/15/10)
1 – Frankie’s Empire (12-1 ML, 300-1 Circa): This son of Classic Empire makes his 9th career start today. He’s won half of his eight races, so he’s definitely doing some things right. He was third in the Fountain of Youth last time out, a race which was decimated by scratches. He’s run career top Beyer Speed Figures in his last three races, and his last race was his best career effort in a two turn race. His four wins all came in one turn sprint races. It feels like there’s a chance that he finishes in the money, but I think it’s asking a lot to expect him to win this race.
2 – Hades (7-2 ML, 50-1 Circa): While both Fierceness and Domestic Product had to overcome some adversity in the Holy Bull, he had the dream trip. He secured his rail position while breaking from the inside and was able to set slow fractions while saving all the ground. He turned for home in the short stretch of the 1 1/16 mile races at Gulfstream and had plenty left to hold off both runners to secure his third consecutive victory. Domestic Product was the runner-up and he flattered Hades by coming back to win the Tampa Bay Derby a few weeks back, in spite of an unfavorable pace flow for that race. He’s an undefeated, gelded son of Awesome Slew, who sold for 350 times more than the stud fee of his sire. D J Stables and Robert Coltran have already recouped their initial investment, as this one has already amassed $225K in earnings on the track. He’s paired his last two Beyer Figures and he could be sitting on a better race. He’s likely going to get another favorable trip, and while I wonder if he’s going to be as effective as the races get longer, he figures to be one of the main contenders in this race today.
3 – Bail Us Out (15-1 ML, 500-1 Circa): This son of Lookin’ At Lucky must have looked the part at the OBS Sale in 2023 when Mike Repole paid $700K for him. The dam was a multiple stakes winner, but her foals haven’t done much on the track. He was 4th in his debut against a good field going seven furlongs here in December. Pletcher opted to scratch him when facing Tuscan Gold here in January and run him back a few days later on the Tapeta course. He was a popular winner that afternoon, winning by a hard fought half length. This is a big jump to go from a maiden special weight on synthetic to a Grade 1 race on the dirt. Irad Ortiz gets the call, but this feels like a tall order for this colt.
4 – Grand Mo the First (15-1 ML): He’s the first horse to run back from what was a very odd Tampa Bay Derby three weeks ago. A massive tote delay turned the biggest race of the year at Tampa Bay Downs into a non-wagering event. The horses were walking and waiting on the track for over 35 minutes while they were trying sort out this situation. Perhaps that lengthy lead up to the race led to a race that had a glacially slow pace. He covered more ground than both Domestic Product and No More Time, and was only a neck behind that duo on the wire. While the pace and the final time were very slow, I thought his effort, which was his first two turn dirt try, was commendable. He’s never finished off the board in five career starts and he’s graded stakes placed on both turf and dirt. Emisael Jaramillo rode him to victory in his first two starts and he’ll get the return call today. He’s making his third start off the layoff and has the license to take that step forward in this race. I see him as a sneaky player in this race.
5 – Real Macho (20-1 ML, 250-1 Circa): He has a pair of wins, both on this track and both coming at the one turn mile. Neither of his efforts at two turns have inspired any confidence that he’s going to be able to run his best race at this nine furlong distance. He finished off the board in the scratch decimated Fountain of Youth last time out with no visible excuse in a race that seemed to be there for the taking. I’ll pass with him today.
6 – Le Dom Bro (15-1 ML, 250-1 Circa): Like Real Macho, he’s also sired by Mucho Macho Man. After a disastrous effort in the Remsen, which seemed like a crazy spot for him at the time, he quietly put two strong efforts together, finishing second in both the Swale and the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Ultimately, he was no match for Dornoch, but he battled gamely to hold second. While he is trending in the right direction, I think the race flow for this race is going to be entirely different than his last start. I think John Velasquez has to send Fierceness from his outside stall. With Hades to his inside and Seminole Chief to his outside, those three runners are going to want to be a part of the early pace battle in this race. I think
7 – Catalytic (20-1 ML, 500-1 Circa): He;s made two career starts with a five month gap in between those races. He was a comfortable maiden winner here in October before going to the sidelines. He came back at the beginning of this month when facing N1X company and he moved well to be a close up second. Booth of those races came in one turn sprints. So he’ll have to answer the two-turn question this afternoon. I’ll be looking elsewhere in this race.
8 – Seminole Chief (30-1 ML): Joel Rosario rides this three time winner that is taking a big time jump up in class. He was last seen winning an optional claiming/N1X on the local Tapeta course. That was a strong reversal of fortune as he was dismal in the Withers Stakes two starts ago. He has three career victories, so spotting him in this race makes some sense, since there aren’t many N2X allowance races for three year olds at the moment. He was good enough to beat Bentornato three starts ago when winning the FSS In Reality Division Stakes. He has more upside than many of the other longer priced runners, but I do think the bottom of the vertical exotics will be the likely ceiling for him.
9 – Conquest Warrior (3-1 ML, 12-1 Circa): He’s the only runner in this race with a win at this nine furlong distance and he’s one of only three to have tried going this long. He opted not to go in the Fountain of Youth after a big time effort when breaking his maiden two starts back. He was interfered with at the start and he was forced to the back of the pack. He moved up comfortably and looked absolutely loaded when picking his way through the pack. He had to wait a bit on the turn and he looked like he had too much to do at the top of the stretch. However, he switched leads and powered home, finishing in front of Antiquarian, who would go on to break his maiden in impressive fashion at the Fair Grounds in his next start. He came back to easily clear the N1X condition in his last start. He’s going to have to take another step forward, but I think the pace is going to be on the aggressive side in this race. He looks like a horse that is coming into his own at the right time .
10 – Fierceness (8-5 ML, 14-1 Circa): The two year old champion is back after a disappointing effort in his three year old debut. He was flat when breaking from an outside post in the Holy Bull. He never looked comfortable in that race, and perhaps that was a result of some rough riding after the start. At the end of the day. I believe he should have been able to gut out a victory if he was the horse that most people thought he was, or at the very last, keep fighting throughout the stretch. At this point in his career, it seems that he’s the kind of horse that is a beast when everything is going his way, but when things aren’t to his liking, he doesn’t show up. He’s being asked to score from a wide draw where John Velasquez is going to have to get after him early to try to clear as many rivals as he can from his outside draw. At his best, he should beat this field by open lengths, but the post makes it hard to guarantee we’re going to see the very best of him/. I’ll likely cover with him in this spot, but others are more enticing.
11 – Iris’s Dream (30-1 ML): One of the longer prices in this race was a strong maiden winner in a turf race in his most recent effort. While he was competitive with maiden options claiming company here in his last two starts, this feels like a big time jump in class. I’m not convinced that he’ll be up to snuff with this group.
The Verdict: 9-4-2
While I think Fierceness will go into the gate as the favorite, he feels like a vulnerable runner in this spot for a variety of reasons. Instead, I’ll making the up and coming runner, Conquest Warrior (#9) the top pick. He was a convincing winner at this distance in his last start when facing open optional claiming/allowance company. I think there are multiple scenarios where he ends up winning.
Grand Mo the First is a runner that has some decent upside, He was a close up third in a wild edition of the Tampa Bay Derby,. He covered more ground than anyone else and he still maintained a third place finish in spite of the ground loss. He’s finished in the money in all six career starts and he’s well-positioned to run another career top.
Hades felt like a horse we should be trying to beat, however, he draws well for the race he wants to run. If there is a battle for the early lead. He’s good enough to either let the pace develop in front of him or set the tempo if need be. He’’s paired his last two Beyer Speed Figures, so he could be sitting on his next best race.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
