There are only five runners in first Derby Points for 2026 in New York and it appears that only four of these horses are going to compete. The winners of this race have not fared on the Derby Trail in recent years. Some of the better horses that have run in this race over the last several years, have gone on to have more success in one turn races. Firenze Fire and Mind Control were talented sprinters that were able to stretch out and win this one turn mile.
Aqueduct Race 3: The $150K Jerome Stakes (Post Time: 1:10 PM EST)
21 Total Derby points (10/5/3/2/1)
1 – Enforced Agenda (9-2 ML): George Weaver and Flavien Prat will team up with this second time starter sired by Liam’s Map. He was overlooked when debuting at this distance on this oval back at the end of November. He beat a good field that afternoon, as the third place finisher, Ottinho, came back to break his maiden in a nine furlong maiden allowance race on New Year’s Eve. Prat was aboard that runner in November, but with Javier Castellano riding at Oaklawn today, he’ll pick up the mount here. After a monster fall here at the Big A, Prat picked up right where he left off by winning three races and finishing second with his fourth mount on yesterday’s card. All five horses in this race want to be forward, so I do trust Prat to make the right decisions. Whether the horse is good enough to compete at this level remains to be seen, but I believe he’s live in this race.
2 – Freedom’s Echo (8-1 ML): One of two Parx invaders comes up I-95 for Guadalupe Preciado. This son of the 2020 winner of this race, Independence Hall, showed little on debut, but he was much better when dropping into a $40K-$30K maiden claiming race there last time out. He crushed that field by 11 lengths and ran a solid speed figure for his effort. Clearly he didn’t face anyone that is close to the same caliber of the four rivals that he’s seeing today. He has been working well at Parx in preparation for this race. I do think the one turn mile might be tougher for him though.
3 – My World (7-5 ML): After winning the Nashua Stakes on this course at this distance, Brad Cox opted to bypass the Remsen last month and wait for this race to make his next start. He finished 4th in a decent maiden race at the Spa on Travers Day on debut. He came back to score in a six furlong race on the Champagne undercard on this course in October. He was the third choice in the wagering the Nashua Stakes where he proved to be better than his four rivals. The dam was a multiple stakes winner on the turf and her first foal has done better on grass and synthetic. Brad Cox won this race in 2024 with Drum Roll Please and he’s stayed loyal to Jaime Rodriguez despite the fact that Prat rides a lot of horses for him here. He is the one to beat.
4 – Balboa (8-5 ML): The only runner in this field that participated in the Remsen is this Not This Time colt who will be making his 7th career start today. This will be his third start since being transferred from Bob Baffert to Brittany Russell. He started his career with four starts in Southern California. He was no match for his former stablemate, Brant, on debut, but he scored in his second career try. He tried Grade 1 company in the Del Mar Futurity and the American Pharoah, where he wasn’t stacking up with the opposition. As we’ve seen in the past, horses that are owned by the SF Racing, Starlight, Madaket conglomerate that are not living up to their price tags in the Baffert barn, are sent elsewhere. Brittany Russell, who wins a ton of races year in and year out on the Maryland Circuit, has been the beneficiary of some of these runners in the past. He appreciated the class relief and paid instant dividends when winning the J.F. Lewis Stakes at Laurel in November. He came back after that sprint to try tougher competition in the Remsen. He was dismissed at 29-1 in the wagering, and he was asked to overcome a tough post, but I thought his effort in that race was strong, finishing third behind only Paladin and Renegade, two runners from top barns that are highly regarded. Like Castellano, Ricardo Santana will be at Oaklawn this afternoon, so Manny Franco will get the assignment on this Not This Time colt for the first time. He’s worked twice at Laurel since that last race and has shown some toughness and resilience. He has the speed to make the front in this compact field, but I’d like to see him try to rate in this spot.
5 – Mailata (4-1 ML): The other Parx based runner is coming off a dominating score where he beat only two rivals by 19 lengths in the Future Stars Stakes at Parx on Tuesday. This would be a quick turnaround, and even though that $75K stakes race was nothing more than a paid workout, it appears that he’s going to defect from this contest today. Reid has not run a horse back in less than a week in the last five years, so it might make more sense to wait for the Withers next month to shoot his shot in a Derby Points Race.
The verdict: 1-3-4
At the end of the day, this is a small field that is evenly matched. While My World (#3) and Balboa (#4) have more experience, neither has run a race that makes them a must use in this race at short odds. There’s not much value to be had in a four horse field, trying to beat them both with the second time starter, Enforced Agenda (#1) could be the way to go. He was a winner in a tough maiden race here at this distance. While he’s facing a pair of stakes winners, he did face some well-meant maidens, including one that came back to score and is likely eyeing up the Withers for next start. In a four horse field, it’s going to become a rider’s race, and there’s no one else on the grounds that I’d want in this situation than Prat. While it remains to be seen if he’ll have the horse, I’d shoot my shot with him in this spot where he’s likely going to be the third choice.
My World or Balboa could easily win this race, but I’m still waiting for a breakout performance from both of these colts that would suggest that they’re ready to take the next step. Taking either at even money, which is likely the case with Mailata (#5) defecting is not all that enticing.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
